Make a little under 100k in my regular job, but I do have about 110 hours recorded this year so far to date, 3/8/17. Mainly play PLO in a live casino and currently I'm crushing it at $340/h in about 110 hours (since 01/2017). I know I'm on an upswing so if it'll probably be closer to $175-200/h once variance kicks in.

Aside from just the monetary aspect, there are other factors as well. To give an example: how parents/family will look at my 'profession'

Just wondering... where do we cross that line and eventually make the jump? Should I keep working my regular (flexible) job while playing or just quit altogether and play full time?

Any help would be appreciated!

-master

Have you read the myriad other posts asking the same question? You will get many of the same answers.

Personally, if I liked my job at all, I'd keep it and play poker on the side. If I hated my job, I'd quit and play poker -- although I'd better be able to get a good job again after my poker hiatus. (It's actually a pretty terrible idea. You'd better have a huge poker and life roll before you quit.)

Who cares what anyone else thinks? (Seriously.)

Also, if you have kids, keep the job no matter what.

I don't hate my job, but I don't love it as well. It was fun a few years back, but now it's sort of stale. Don't have any kids, or family, just a gf.

How much of a roll do you think I should obtain before making the decision? 50k?

The rule you're looking for involves the Certainty Equivalent, the amount of certain money you'd take in lieu of gambling for more.

For poker, unless you're extremely well-rolled, CE is about 1/2 of WR. If you're super rolled, like 500 BB for LHE or 4,000 bb for NL, it may be closer to 3/4 of WR.

As for what people think, that's kind of up to you.

Just for the record, I think 110 hours is about 1/10th the sample size you'd want for this kind of decision.

Pretty sure there isnt a pro that consistantly sustains a 175-200 hourly over a reliable sample

That said, why not bang 4-5 hour sessions, 4-6 nights per week like a part time job and reevaluate after a minimum of 2000 hours played?

Cause rungood dont last and you have a pretty good paying job already

At least 250k - 500k before you quit. And keep 100k in the bank that you don't play poker with incase you go busto and need a year to find a good job again.

TO make $300 an hour playing PLO you need to be playing the highest stakes in the casino - or $5-$10 - $10 - $25 PLO.

IF you are just on some $5-$5 heater - you won't make near $300 an hour. So you made $30,000 in 100 hours? That is pretty good, but you can also lose it that fast too. I Knew a guy who made $150k playing PLO and in 1 year was busto again. That game is very volatile and the questions you are asking probably don't indicate you are a pro yet.

Also 50k bankroll is dog **** for playing PLO, you want at least 100k.

If you make more than $340/hr at your current job, keep your current job. Thay way you can use the other ten months for poker.

No

Would you mind explaining your CE a bit more in depth? I find that a very interesting concept but not sure if I understand it completely. What do you mean by 1/2 of WR?

@djevans yes I currently play 1/2, 5/5, 10/25, and 25/50 PLO. Mainly 5-5 and 10/25. I can keep up with the pros and I have a lot of confidence in my game. I see so many leaks in even some of the regs, it forces me to ask questions like these to myself... should I go pro too?

I know $300/h is unstainable so that's why I was going off of the $175/200 figure, in which I think is reasonable.

I can't put in 2000 hours while working both the job and playing recreationally so I will never have a decent sized sample. Last year, I only recorded 250 cash game hours in just 5/5 PLO and was clearing $130/h+. Again I know it's a small sample but I just don't have the time to be putting in more hours, as much as I would like to.

@noquarter if I tried to put in a minimum of 2k hours at even 100/hours per month, it would take me nearly 2 years. I barely crossed 100 after 2 full months so not sure if that time frame is reasonable

I think it means if you have a job that makes a guaranteed 1/2 or more of what you could make playing poker, keep the job.

Now that I think about it, the biggest pot I actually played this year I lost as a 70/30 favorite for about 15k - that kind stung and would have been an extra 15k for me. That would have pushed my hourly to around $450 or so, not that it matters but just stating the fact that I guess I have been hit with a little more variance than I thought. Oh well

It means that if two things have the same EV, we value the less volatile, less risky one more by some amount.

For poker, he believes that amount tends to be about 50%. So you have to make about $100,000 playing poker (with all the swings, and the chance you might make 200k, or the chance you might lose 50k) to match the "utility" and happiness of a guaranteed $50,000 (i.e job).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_premium

who cares what family/parents think. Why should you have to work if you can make that much in PLOL? Think about all the money your losing when you could be playing instead.

So you "make" 100K, but after taxes, you net about 65K. That breaks down to a measly $30/hr. I don't know about you but if it was me I would quit in a heart beat.

$50K bankroll is lol for PLO, it's not enough even if 5/5 were all you play. for 25/50 you need at least $250K

with that said, quit your job.

you seem to have some money in the bank and don't need to provide for the family, scratch that itch now while you're young and if you crash and burn just go back to whatever you were doing armed with the knowledge that grinder's life is not for you

where do you play, OP?

I see. Thanks for clarifying. So i guess in this scenario if I supposedly make $200/h playing poker then that would yield me roughly $400k a year assuming I put in 40-hour weeks. So my job would have to pay me equivalent of 200k in order for me to not go poker full-time? Am I understanding this correctly?

Thank you for all the helpful posts but what would you do if you were me in my situation? I don't have the the required roll to go full time and just drop everything. But at the same time, if I spend the time strictly playing poker, I could yield much higher profits with the hours I put into the game. I guess I could also coach on the side too if time allows.

So if you were me, would you keep grinding your day job and play poker at night/on the weekends with no social life? Or take a leap of faith, underrolled, and play full time and grind and put in some hours? I also have backers that are willing to stake me as well... hmmmm

I see what you're saying but don't agree with you 100%. The job provides security and also pays for all my health insurance, dental insurance, and 401k benefits. So I think it's best we go off the net number of $50/hour instead of $30/h after taxes.

I see, thanks for clarifying!

@Alphafish not sure if I want to give specifics yet, but I do play on the east coast

One other huge important factor I forgot to mention is that I want to play for the full 6 weeks during the WSOP this year. My other friend who's a PLO grinder said he cleared 65k over the 6-week time span last year strictly playing cash games for 5/10/25 PLO. And in his game alone, I see leaks that can be plugged. So if he's clearing $214/h playing only cash, maybe I can do the same or possibly better?

This is also a big determining factor for me since I am going to play in 3-5 events this year over a 7-10 day time frame. But if I quit now, I can stay there during the whole time and grind it out...

Sorry for the numerous factors going on here, but that's what makes it slightly more difficult for me.

if you're playing in the established market it's different from playing somewhere like Natl Harbor, where the games are just about the best in the world right now but will undoubtedly get worse

if you have a profession where a year or two gap on the resume isn't a huge deal, quit now, make that 500-ball, have 36hr sessions, sex with random hookers, blackout drunk pit forays etc

then when you get it out of your system get back to work. or don't

Well, OK , you seem determined to give it a shot. Lots of folks much less well prepared have tried it. Most folks just don't make it , but some do certainly. The likely end is back to work and a poker hobby that makes you some extra money , OR Maybe a partime job and partime poker job. Regardless of the odds against it ,I think you need to give it a try and see if you can make it fairly soon before other factors in your real life makes it too risky.

A single person needs to make over $413K before hes in the 35% tax bracket

Also, in addition to the point about the employer covering some costs for insurance and contributing to a retirement plan (plus the security aspects), I don't know if Playbig2000's figures are correct. What country do you live in? $35,000 of income tax on $100,000 of gross income seems high.

Also, depending on what country you live in, you may have to pay tax on poker winnings also. Therefore, comparing post-tax job numbers with pre-tax poker numbers wouldn't make any sense. In fact (again, depending on what country you live in), if you play poker professionally, you may have to additionally pay self-employment taxes.

How many hours a week do those crazy PLO games actually run?

I would suggest maintaining a work history of some sort, even if it's just occasional consulting or something part time that you can make look good on a resume. Not just because you might go broke, but because you might find you don't like the life or if some great work opportunity comes up in the future.