With AA42r I get that you have around 28% equity in the main four ways (playing around with different ranges doesn't change the number much) and you're probably at worst a slight favorite in the side. Especially with the discount you get from potting it already it's clearly a +EV spot for both the side and the main pots. What do you mean you're losing money in the main? In cash games the goal is not survival/increasing your stack. The goal should be to make the most money, and folding clearly doesn't do that.

In the 9-ways AA hand you are throwing away over 2 stacks in chipEV by folding against random hands. Nobody is so much better than their opponents in an event like this that they can rationally let this opportunity slide. Good luck finding a better spot than 8 other people wanting to stack off when you have the nuts
.3473*9-1 = 2.1257 stacks

You can’t win the ME on day one but you can surely lose it. I am sure the math says folding aces is neg ev. I can do the math.

If it were a rebuy tournament and I was rolled for such, sure I shove with every one and go rebuy if I lose. But if I truly believe I am in the top x percent or just the best at my table, I prefer a bunch of spots where I am ahead and risking a littleAND have the opportunity to get more in post flop when I have more knowledge.

The best player can play and win many smaller hands throughout the day and wind up with that same stack to start day two

No, the best player can't. You're acting as if it's easy to grind up a 9x stack with little to no risk. You're definitely not doing it without GII a few times and your odds of surviving those are worse. There's tons of variance involved in this game even for the best in the world.

I've heard this plenty ... the most recent being NManion in last year's WSOP. He was never (truly) all-in until there were less than 100 people left in the tournament. Did he call some all-ins from other players, yes. Is that 'very' unlikely for most Players? Maybe, but I've heard from lots of tournament Players that they can at least get into the money before they were ever 'at risk'. GL

I'm sure they weren't passing up massive +EV situations all willy-nilly to get there though.

this is stupid. get in the ME and fold AA preflop, then come back and talk about it. until then it's all hypothetical dick swinging.

spoiler alert: it's going to be a lot harder to do than you think it is (i'm sure you'll refute this too)

All uses of the expression willy-nilly should be highly praised.

First I did not say without risk or even with little risk. I said less risk. Whole table all in preflight on first hand with ten players puts pocket aces with over an80% chance to bust.

I can get it all in with aces, heads up 8 times with less risk. And with just a tiny bit of chipping up along the way without being all in by me and some of those opponents and my stack is even larger than 9x. Now I don’t expect to get aces 8 times AND GII each time on day one but that also is not the only way it can be done.

Second as others have pointed out, not only can you make it deep and not be at risk to bust, but some have done so

Btw with some more judicious hand selection, and giving some one else aces also, I can get you we all shove equity down to less than 5%. And if I reduce you flush odds I can get your odds to win down to less than 0.5% and about 2% to chop and survive. Using those scenarios and it becomes MUCH better ev to fold pre. Admittedly that is worst case but worst case is much more likely than best case and even in best case you have about a 30% chance to bust.

Variance can not be eliminated. But not only can it be reduced but doing so is the right strategy at times in tournament poker.

this AA discussion is ****ing gold, I honestly can't even tell if Fore is trolling the thread or not

This is actually a thing in PLO:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AhAc**	28.36%	90,677	158,937
AdAs**	28.36%	90,683	158,982
6s7c8c9s	43.28%	257,369	4,655

Where are you getting that number?

It’s actually a little less than 70 percent chance to bust in that situation.

Ok 70ish percent with nine random hands. But with more typical hands that will shove call it is more like 80ish percent. And if someone else also has aces can be over 95 percent bust chance.

This isn't how math works. At all. I mean, c'mon.

To paraphrase: if I could pick the 9 other hands, that would all call a shove or shove themselves, I can get AA down to only 5% chance of winning


This is just absurd on multiple levels.

Sure, it's possible, but is it probable? Your unicorn scenario has probably never happened because of the astronomical odds of all those things aligning is probably worse than winning back to back power balls while getting struck by lightning and attacked by a shark all in the same week

This definitely qualifies as absurd thinking. If someone else has aces, it's almost impossible to make 8 other hands that would either shove or call a shove. I had to get pretty creative to come up with a scenario that everyone could do this without doubling up hands like QQ (which obv kill their equity).

Against the two available AK hands, the one available KK left, one each of TT-QQ, and then a few "**** it hands" of JTs, 66 and T2s (gotta play the Doyle!), I got AA down to 24%, which is still 1.7% better than any other hand. 1.7% may not seem like much, but it's a huge equity advantage in a pot this big and this early in the tournament where ICM isn't really a factor yet.

And given the huge advantage you'd get if you won, such as never having to be at risk for all your chips for many levels until others could amass stacks that big, it's a clear call.

And that's if the PPs don't block each other. If I replace the T2s and the TTs with another JJ and another QQ (and move the JTs down to T9s, as all the Jacks are now taken), we are now laughing with about 45% equity.

It is almost impossible to have ten hands willing to shove regardless. But that was the premise from someone else. But ten hands shoving would not be ten random hands. So try this combination.

Two red aces. Two black aces. Red Ks. Red Qs. Red Js. Red 10s. Red 9s. Red 8s Red deuces. And the 2nd favorite 67ss.

You hold the black aces and are the biggest dog. Less than 1% to win and about 1.5% to chop.


The reality is you would PROBABLY be the favorite but a favorite in a high variance situation. It might be the best play mathematically. But that does not make it a no brained or even the right choice for everyone

Your 45% equity situation is a joke. You preclude two pair of pocket aces but then double up numerous other pairs and remove trip out also. That is even less likely than the scenario above. In this nearly impossible scenario of ten all ins on the first hand, two pair of aces would not be a surprise at all

Yep. It's the right choice for people who like to win money, and the wrong choice for everyone else.

Heard a great one tonight:

V1 is a short stack and raises preflop. V2 is a MABG and calls. Flop Js Ks 3h. Short stack shoves for $70.

V2 goes into the tank and says ‘I should call because it’s Sunday.’
Calls with As4s. Bricks out and wins with A high. Can’t argue with that one.

2018 WSOP Main Event. About halfway through day 1, I had two black Kings and got 5-bet shoved on by a reasonably tight player. I said out loud "really? Is this happening to me at the WSOP Main??" and after agonizing for a while I called since I had about 70K and he had less than 40K.

Of course he had Aces. 3 clubs on the flop, club on the turn and he was drawing dead lol.

So.. at what point you started thinking (after reading OP) that your storie was connected to OP's post?

To put a cap on the 'all-shove' comments for now. They actually do have $10K Showdowns at the WSOP. Everyone plops down $1k then they run out the Board and the winner gets a ME seat. It's not quite the same as doing so knowing you have AA, but ... GL

I sit down at a new 1|2 table and immediately notice a player with a very large stack, around $1500, and suspect something is up. Within a few minutes I can tell the player is pretty loose/spewy, but I haven't seen anything particularly out of line, yet. He seems to very often bet when checked to, but everyone has folded so far. Then a limped pot gets checked to the river and the board reads JJxx, K on the river. A tight player bets, the big stack raises, tight player 3-bets, big stack 4-bet jams and tight player snaps, KJ > K3o. Okay, so now we know he's a whale and has run hot to build a large stack.

Not a long time after I pick up 55 in the BB. Whale straddles BU, I and two others limp, he raises to $30 and all call, one all-in for less. Flop T54dd, I check, the third player bets all-in $91, whale calls, I raise to $250, whale calls. Turn is the case 5. I check because whales gonna whale, and he jams having my $446 covered. Whale has freaking pocket sixes and I win.

The whale still has several hundred dollars left and is completely unfazed by this hand. Guess how the story ends?

Nice brag. Zero "thinking."

If nobody expressed a thought, how can you have heard absurd thinking?