Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Casino & Cardroom Poker Discussions of the activities, rules and etiquette of Live Casino and Cardroom Poker Venues.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-02-2019, 10:59 AM   #7076
browni3141
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 3,029
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

Quote:
Originally Posted by answer20 View Post
1) Folded naked AA24 from SB last night after potting ($40) a bunch of limpers, which then turned into a 3 way all-in with big stack action pending. Big stack shoves AKQT and wins with King high straight.
Why did you fold? Is that the absurd thinking? Were you still really deep with the big stack or something and didn't want to have to play post with trashy aces? You're still an equity favorite if you're shallow enough to GII pre.

Quote:
2) In the long-time discussion ... You are fulfilling your life long dream of playing the WSOP ME. It's your $10K that you wrestled away at your wife's reluctance. You will most likely never play this tournament again. First hand of the tournament and everyone shoves into your BB ... You look down at AA ... What do you do?
I'm playing the ME with the same goal as any other poker event, to maximize my expectation. Obvious call is obvious. I can understand folding if you're playing for the experience and want to milk a few hours out of your 10k, but not if you're trying to make money.
browni3141 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2019, 02:54 PM   #7077
answer20
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
answer20's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Corner of Walk/Don't Walk
Posts: 6,707
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

While you don't have to convince me that I'm probably an equity favorite in both spots I guess I lean towards I think I can find better spots to increase my stack in both cases with less variance. While the allure of winning a 480-600 bb cash pot or instantly having a 'start of' Day 2 top 20 chips stack is obvious I guess I let the emotional side overrule.

You would be very hard pressed to show me where I'm more than a 40% favorite in the main pot of either spot. Certainly the side pot in the PLO hand would've covered any losses in the main and should be considered a leak/mistake. But I have to allow myself to be human at times and I just didn't feel it. Leak? Yes, but a lot of playing poker is being comfortable with your choices and being able to move onto the next hand with a clear mind. (Let the head shaking begin) ... GL
answer20 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2019, 04:07 PM   #7078
browni3141
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 3,029
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

Quote:
Originally Posted by answer20 View Post
While you don't have to convince me that I'm probably an equity favorite in both spots I guess I lean towards I think I can find better spots to increase my stack in both cases with less variance. While the allure of winning a 480-600 bb cash pot or instantly having a 'start of' Day 2 top 20 chips stack is obvious I guess I let the emotional side overrule.

You would be very hard pressed to show me where I'm more than a 40% favorite in the main pot of either spot. Certainly the side pot in the PLO hand would've covered any losses in the main and should be considered a leak/mistake. But I have to allow myself to be human at times and I just didn't feel it. Leak? Yes, but a lot of playing poker is being comfortable with your choices and being able to move onto the next hand with a clear mind. (Let the head shaking begin) ... GL
With AA42r I get that you have around 28% equity in the main four ways (playing around with different ranges doesn't change the number much) and you're probably at worst a slight favorite in the side. Especially with the discount you get from potting it already it's clearly a +EV spot for both the side and the main pots. What do you mean you're losing money in the main? In cash games the goal is not survival/increasing your stack. The goal should be to make the most money, and folding clearly doesn't do that.

In the 9-ways AA hand you are throwing away over 2 stacks in chipEV by folding against random hands. Nobody is so much better than their opponents in an event like this that they can rationally let this opportunity slide. Good luck finding a better spot than 8 other people wanting to stack off when you have the nuts
.3473*9-1 = 2.1257 stacks
browni3141 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2019, 06:38 PM   #7079
Fore
adept
 
Fore's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 1,191
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

You can’t win the ME on day one but you can surely lose it. I am sure the math says folding aces is neg ev. I can do the math.

If it were a rebuy tournament and I was rolled for such, sure I shove with every one and go rebuy if I lose. But if I truly believe I am in the top x percent or just the best at my table, I prefer a bunch of spots where I am ahead and risking a littleAND have the opportunity to get more in post flop when I have more knowledge.

The best player can play and win many smaller hands throughout the day and wind up with that same stack to start day two
Fore is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2019, 08:02 AM   #7080
browni3141
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 3,029
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fore View Post
You can’t win the ME on day one but you can surely lose it. I am sure the math says folding aces is neg ev. I can do the math.

If it were a rebuy tournament and I was rolled for such, sure I shove with every one and go rebuy if I lose. But if I truly believe I am in the top x percent or just the best at my table, I prefer a bunch of spots where I am ahead and risking a littleAND have the opportunity to get more in post flop when I have more knowledge.

The best player can play and win many smaller hands throughout the day and wind up with that same stack to start day two
No, the best player can't. You're acting as if it's easy to grind up a 9x stack with little to no risk. You're definitely not doing it without GII a few times and your odds of surviving those are worse. There's tons of variance involved in this game even for the best in the world.
browni3141 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2019, 08:19 AM   #7081
answer20
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
answer20's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Corner of Walk/Don't Walk
Posts: 6,707
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

I've heard this plenty ... the most recent being NManion in last year's WSOP. He was never (truly) all-in until there were less than 100 people left in the tournament. Did he call some all-ins from other players, yes. Is that 'very' unlikely for most Players? Maybe, but I've heard from lots of tournament Players that they can at least get into the money before they were ever 'at risk'. GL
answer20 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2019, 08:30 AM   #7082
Lord_Crispen
adept
 
Lord_Crispen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: unknown
Posts: 948
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

Quote:
Originally Posted by answer20 View Post
Maybe, but I've heard from lots of tournament Players that they can at least get into the money before they were ever 'at risk'. GL
I'm sure they weren't passing up massive +EV situations all willy-nilly to get there though.
Lord_Crispen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2019, 08:56 AM   #7083
johnny_on_the_spot
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnny_on_the_spot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: S-Mart
Posts: 7,426
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

this is stupid. get in the ME and fold AA preflop, then come back and talk about it. until then it's all hypothetical dick swinging.

spoiler alert: it's going to be a lot harder to do than you think it is (i'm sure you'll refute this too)
johnny_on_the_spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2019, 12:34 PM   #7084
Gravity Well
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 60
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord_Crispen View Post
I'm sure they weren't passing up massive +EV situations all willy-nilly to get there though.
All uses of the expression willy-nilly should be highly praised.
Gravity Well is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2019, 06:32 PM   #7085
Fore
adept
 
Fore's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 1,191
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
No, the best player can't. You're acting as if it's easy to grind up a 9x stack with little to no risk. You're definitely not doing it without GII a few times and your odds of surviving those are worse. There's tons of variance involved in this game even for the best in the world.
First I did not say without risk or even with little risk. I said less risk. Whole table all in preflight on first hand with ten players puts pocket aces with over an80% chance to bust.

I can get it all in with aces, heads up 8 times with less risk. And with just a tiny bit of chipping up along the way without being all in by me and some of those opponents and my stack is even larger than 9x. Now I don’t expect to get aces 8 times AND GII each time on day one but that also is not the only way it can be done.

Second as others have pointed out, not only can you make it deep and not be at risk to bust, but some have done so

Btw with some more judicious hand selection, and giving some one else aces also, I can get you we all shove equity down to less than 5%. And if I reduce you flush odds I can get your odds to win down to less than 0.5% and about 2% to chop and survive. Using those scenarios and it becomes MUCH better ev to fold pre. Admittedly that is worst case but worst case is much more likely than best case and even in best case you have about a 30% chance to bust.

Variance can not be eliminated. But not only can it be reduced but doing so is the right strategy at times in tournament poker.
Fore is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2019, 07:17 PM   #7086
tgiggity
veteran
 
tgiggity's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Rosarito
Posts: 3,081
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

this AA discussion is ****ing gold, I honestly can't even tell if Fore is trolling the thread or not
tgiggity is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2019, 10:54 PM   #7087
KatoKrazy
Pooh-Bah
 
KatoKrazy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Orange County, CA
Posts: 4,029
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

Quote:
Originally Posted by javi View Post
2 players get in a raising war with some knucklehead in the middle who just keeps calling in between. Eventually they're allin preflop for like 1k each and he's in there too for about 800. After showdown it's AK vs AQ and knucklehead has 46s. Says it was good to get it in with them because "they were going high so I had to go low" referring to card value/sharing. He lost.
This is actually a thing in PLO:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AhAc**28.36% 90,677158,937
AdAs**28.36% 90,683158,982
6s7c8c9s43.28% 257,3694,655
KatoKrazy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2019, 12:00 AM   #7088
Freewill2112
veteran
 
Freewill2112's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Skeptical dog is skeptical
Posts: 3,223
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fore View Post
First I did not say without risk or even with little risk. I said less risk. Whole table all in preflight on first hand with ten players puts pocket aces with over an 80% chance to bust.
Where are you getting that number?
Freewill2112 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2019, 01:16 AM   #7089
KatoKrazy
Pooh-Bah
 
KatoKrazy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Orange County, CA
Posts: 4,029
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

It’s actually a little less than 70 percent chance to bust in that situation.
KatoKrazy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2019, 01:59 AM   #7090
Fore
adept
 
Fore's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 1,191
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

Ok 70ish percent with nine random hands. But with more typical hands that will shove call it is more like 80ish percent. And if someone else also has aces can be over 95 percent bust chance.
Fore is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2019, 03:16 AM   #7091
JoReCB
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Chicago (South Loop)
Posts: 57
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fore View Post
Ok 70ish percent with nine random hands. But with more typical hands that will shove call it is more like 80ish percent. And if someone else also has aces can be over 95 percent bust chance.
This isn't how math works. At all. I mean, c'mon.
JoReCB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2019, 08:06 AM   #7092
johnny_on_the_spot
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnny_on_the_spot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: S-Mart
Posts: 7,426
Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

To paraphrase: if I could pick the 9 other hands, that would all call a shove or shove themselves, I can get AA down to only 5% chance of winning


This is just absurd on multiple levels.

Sure, it's possible, but is it probable? Your unicorn scenario has probably never happened because of the astronomical odds of all those things aligning is probably worse than winning back to back power balls while getting struck by lightning and attacked by a shark all in the same week
johnny_on_the_spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2019, 10:06 AM   #7093
Garick
Oberbiergenießer
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 19,297
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fore View Post
Ok 70ish percent with nine random hands. But with more typical hands that will shove call it is more like 80ish percent. And if someone else also has aces can be over 95 percent bust chance.
This definitely qualifies as absurd thinking. If someone else has aces, it's almost impossible to make 8 other hands that would either shove or call a shove. I had to get pretty creative to come up with a scenario that everyone could do this without doubling up hands like QQ (which obv kill their equity).

Against the two available AK hands, the one available KK left, one each of TT-QQ, and then a few "**** it hands" of JTs, 66 and T2s (gotta play the Doyle!), I got AA down to 24%, which is still 1.7% better than any other hand. 1.7% may not seem like much, but it's a huge equity advantage in a pot this big and this early in the tournament where ICM isn't really a factor yet.

And given the huge advantage you'd get if you won, such as never having to be at risk for all your chips for many levels until others could amass stacks that big, it's a clear call.

And that's if the PPs don't block each other. If I replace the T2s and the TTs with another JJ and another QQ (and move the JTs down to T9s, as all the Jacks are now taken), we are now laughing with about 45% equity.
Garick is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2019, 08:06 PM   #7094
Fore
adept
 
Fore's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 1,191
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

It is almost impossible to have ten hands willing to shove regardless. But that was the premise from someone else. But ten hands shoving would not be ten random hands. So try this combination.

Two red aces. Two black aces. Red Ks. Red Qs. Red Js. Red 10s. Red 9s. Red 8s Red deuces. And the 2nd favorite 67ss.

You hold the black aces and are the biggest dog. Less than 1% to win and about 1.5% to chop.


The reality is you would PROBABLY be the favorite but a favorite in a high variance situation. It might be the best play mathematically. But that does not make it a no brained or even the right choice for everyone

Your 45% equity situation is a joke. You preclude two pair of pocket aces but then double up numerous other pairs and remove trip out also. That is even less likely than the scenario above. In this nearly impossible scenario of ten all ins on the first hand, two pair of aces would not be a surprise at all
Fore is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2019, 08:47 PM   #7095
Freewill2112
veteran
 
Freewill2112's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Skeptical dog is skeptical
Posts: 3,223
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fore View Post
It might be the best play mathematically. But that does not make it a no brained or even the right choice for everyone
Yep. It's the right choice for people who like to win money, and the wrong choice for everyone else.
Freewill2112 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2019, 11:46 PM   #7096
MarshMan114
centurion
 
MarshMan114's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Upstuck City
Posts: 166
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

Heard a great one tonight:

V1 is a short stack and raises preflop. V2 is a MABG and calls. Flop Js Ks 3h. Short stack shoves for $70.

V2 goes into the tank and says ‘I should call because it’s Sunday.’
Calls with As4s. Bricks out and wins with A high. Can’t argue with that one.
MarshMan114 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2019, 03:06 AM   #7097
18000rpm
adept
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 760
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

Quote:
Originally Posted by answer20 View Post
2) In the long-time discussion ... You are fulfilling your life long dream of playing the WSOP ME. It's your $10K that you wrestled away at your wife's reluctance. You will most likely never play this tournament again. First hand of the tournament and everyone shoves into your BB ... You look down at AA ... What do you do?
2018 WSOP Main Event. About halfway through day 1, I had two black Kings and got 5-bet shoved on by a reasonably tight player. I said out loud "really? Is this happening to me at the WSOP Main??" and after agonizing for a while I called since I had about 70K and he had less than 40K.

Of course he had Aces. 3 clubs on the flop, club on the turn and he was drawing dead lol.
18000rpm is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2019, 06:46 AM   #7098
endymion_j
stranger
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 14
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

Quote:
Originally Posted by 18000rpm View Post
2018 WSOP Main Event. About halfway through day 1, I had two black Kings and got 5-bet shoved on by a reasonably tight player. I said out loud "really? Is this happening to me at the WSOP Main??" and after agonizing for a while I called since I had about 70K and he had less than 40K.

Of course he had Aces. 3 clubs on the flop, club on the turn and he was drawing dead lol.
So.. at what point you started thinking (after reading OP) that your storie was connected to OP's post?
endymion_j is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2019, 08:12 AM   #7099
answer20
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
answer20's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Corner of Walk/Don't Walk
Posts: 6,707
Re: Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?

To put a cap on the 'all-shove' comments for now. They actually do have $10K Showdowns at the WSOP. Everyone plops down $1k then they run out the Board and the winner gets a ME seat. It's not quite the same as doing so knowing you have AA, but ... GL
answer20 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:19 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online