I'm like 80% sure he's just talking about reducing variance, but the wording makes it sound iffy

Manipulating your opponents by running (or not running) it twice is good strategy. Changing your own play based on whether or not an opponent will run it twice is poor strategy.

LAG UTG opened to 20, there were three callers, I squeeze AJs in the BB for 120.

UTG gets a pained look on his face and goes to the tank. He looks at me and says "Man I just got all my stacks in a perfect rectangle" (1200 in a 3x4 rectangle)

Priorities are important.


--klez

"I noticed, that's why this was such a good spot for my squeeze play!"

Had a guy in my home game once, nearing the end of the night he clearly stacked his buy-in in one pile and had his profit stacked on the side. A couple of us noticed it, and would make huge overbets that would be enough to dent his original buy in, and ofc he folded every time.

I always do that (sometime even point it out), except I have zero intention of folding, actually managed to induce a few weird bluffs from regs

Is this a level? If not, I submit this to the thread.

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Had a guy tell me there were situations where he'd fold aces pre.

Had a guy (who claims to be a poker coach as well) BRAG about the time he folded aces pre flop. I've personally heard the story twice so I can't imagine how many times he has told it.

4 people were all in before it gets to him. He sees aces and folds. His son his standing behind him watching and is yelling at the guy once preflop action is done.

The folder turns to his son and says "listen, they all have pairs, the aces won't win." Board runs out and one guy turns over a set. The folder turns back to his son "See? Told you so." Son agrees.

Are you saying reducing variance is not a legit poker strategy? Do you have an unlimited bankroll? Why do pros run it twice all the time (esp in shortdeck)?

You are on the bubble of a satellite with the shortest stack. Utg, +1, and +2 all shove. You look down at AA next to act. Your play?

When I know opponent is always willing to run it more than once, I can shove draws with reduced variance while still taking advantage of all the fold equity.

How is that absurd?

because I can tell you no, I only run it once. then fold whenever you shove because you won't shove draws unless you can reduce the variance

I think you missed he part of his theory where he said "when I know an opponent is always willing to run it more than once"

1) Folded naked AA24 from SB last night after potting ($40) a bunch of limpers, which then turned into a 3 way all-in with big stack action pending. Big stack shoves AKQT and wins with King high straight.

2) In the long-time discussion ... You are fulfilling your life long dream of playing the WSOP ME. It's your $10K that you wrestled away at your wife's reluctance. You will most likely never play this tournament again. First hand of the tournament and everyone shoves into your BB ... You look down at AA ... What do you do?

3) I used to be one of those 'situational' RIT guys and caught too much flak for it. So now I only run it once and at least 3 times a session a Player will make a comment about that fact and fold. I will take the folds over the variance all day long. GL

If it's a situation where I would fold anything I wouldn't even look at my cards.

Had a guy post that he had no idea what ICM was or how it could justify folding certain hands in certain situations.

had a guy tell me posting in the "Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game?" wouldn't get trolled.

No. I'm saying that you realize the same equity regardless of how many times to run it (and when you are all in, you realize all of the equity that you have, which I would think would be obvuous). Realizing equity and reducing variance are completely different concepts, but you don't seem to understand that.

Pros that run it twice do so for a variety of reasons, most of which are bad. Usually it's because they are actually scared money. I prefer to run it once for a variety of reasons: More hands per hour, less chance for dealer mistakes, more money gets in the table, stacks get bigger, fish who have no business playing deep get deep, people get tilted. Or I could run it twice, keep the same EV, and decrease the number of hands, decreasing my hourly and not getting all of those other contextual benefits that running it once privide. It's a no-brainer in my eyes. No, I don't have an unlimited bankroll, but I do have an appropriate bankroll. I'm not scared that sometimes I am going to lose.

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I had a dealer tell me he played at another casino and folded aces pre because it was a five-way to the flop and the other guys were playing "crazy" so he wasn't really that far ahead. I asked him if he was high at the time.

The strangest part is that half the table agreed with him.

I regret to report that nobody has ever folded aces pre against me.

I had a full hand typed out but it comes down to this.

In PLO, when super deep stacked, sometimes I'd just jam a draw heavy flop with top set to the point if villain calls it would be ~1 pot sized bet left (sometimes with top flush draw). Villain would jam back on me and literally say "you're not supposed to jam with top set there."

The next part of their sentence would diverge:
If they got a combo draw: I jammed because I thought you were capped and will fold
If they got TT/JT/even Jxxx with backup or some such thing: You just couldn't have it there.

Either way, they don't seem to realize how exploitable that line of thinking makes them.

Now the dumb part: This happens a lot more when we're playing 1000+bb deep (which happens more often live just because games are so much looser in general)

Why did you fold? Is that the absurd thinking? Were you still really deep with the big stack or something and didn't want to have to play post with trashy aces? You're still an equity favorite if you're shallow enough to GII pre.

I'm playing the ME with the same goal as any other poker event, to maximize my expectation. Obvious call is obvious. I can understand folding if you're playing for the experience and want to milk a few hours out of your 10k, but not if you're trying to make money.

While you don't have to convince me that I'm probably an equity favorite in both spots I guess I lean towards I think I can find better spots to increase my stack in both cases with less variance. While the allure of winning a 480-600 bb cash pot or instantly having a 'start of' Day 2 top 20 chips stack is obvious I guess I let the emotional side overrule.

You would be very hard pressed to show me where I'm more than a 40% favorite in the main pot of either spot. Certainly the side pot in the PLO hand would've covered any losses in the main and should be considered a leak/mistake. But I have to allow myself to be human at times and I just didn't feel it. Leak? Yes, but a lot of playing poker is being comfortable with your choices and being able to move onto the next hand with a clear mind. (Let the head shaking begin) ... GL