I don't understand the thought process of people saying this. I've seen it before:

-Someone shows down big starting hand
-Very next hand that player gets a lot of action because people don't believe he can have 2 big hands in a row

The best that has happened to me is that I have had KK three consecutive hands in a row in a satellite. Twice before break, once after. I got value out of all of them because people didn't "put me on Kings or Aces" because I just had them.

It's the negative side of the Gambler's Fallacy.

The positive version is more familiar. (I once had an acquaintance bet with me on his favourite baseball team because they were having an unusually bad season, so "They're due, man!") But the negative version -- such as thinking you can't possibly have AA twice -- seems to hold even more power for those who believe in such things.

I think some people don't believe they are engaging in a foolish thought process with that way of thinking though. I expect some people genuinely believe that's how odds and probability work.

"Ace King has been missing tonight." "XX cards have been hitting a lot tonight."

"I'm due to win a flip."

You hear it all the time.

But the thought process of 'I haven't hit a set in my last 15 tries, so I have such a high % chance of hitting it this time,' and 'You had AA last hand so your chance of having it again this hand is lower.'

I think some people genuinely believe that is how odds and probability work.

I have had this conversation with so many otherwise intelligent people. They believe that regressing to the mean is predictive. So, if the current numbers are way off, hell, it has to normalize, right?

This past weekend was in a very deep 2/5 game. Table had multiple action players with one in particular that would call just about any size pre flop raise with any two. Said player opens for $15 under the gun (he opens $15 to $20 every other hand yet limps in position) gets three callers and the CO announces raise and slides a double stack of green out. Under the gun thinks about it then folds as does everyone else, CO flips AA and says I hate that hand I always raise it so I don't have to play it.

Guy rivers a full house and checks to player who rivered a flush and just calls. Says he was scared of the flush when questioned and he realises his mistake claims it's because he's not wearing his glasses

If you guys aren't part of The Poker Forum on facebook, get there. There are like five threads going on right now where people are seriously arguing that you should calculate the odds of a flush draw hitting as anything other than 9/47 (i.e. because x cards were dealt to the other players, so it's 9/(47-x) or some silly **** like that)

It's painful to read but I can't look away

ha! Thanks for bringing this to my attention. I was having the exact same discussion at work with one of the smartest people I know — he has a math degree but doesn't play poker, so I think the practical application was clashing with his typically theoretical and sound reasoning.

Anyway, I told him this dude stole his theory

Yes, I have heard it, I have watched people call and win after saying it. I actually said that and won a hand. In my case it was a gut shot, I was one of the top stacks and the big blind against the small stack. (I only did it once)

Of course I am forgetting all the times that people say it and it doesn't hit.

And derailed again.

1/2, about a month ago. As well as I can remember it:

Young Asian female, very nitty, stack about $110, to my right. Raises to $10. Folds to button. Young white guy, also very nitty, stack about the same, calls. Headsup.

Flop (23): 88x
Check, check.

Turn (23): x
Check, check.

River (23): 8. (Board something like 88248)
Check, white guy bets 10. Asian girl thinks for over a minute, then folds KK face-up. White guy turns up AA and scoops pot.

Table explodes into awe and amazement. "Awesome fold!", "Wow, nobody could make that fold!", "Great fold!", "You're gonna go far making plays like that!", etc, etc for a couple minutes.

To his credit, guy to my left leans over and whispers to me: "How the **** did that not get aipf?" I almost lol, but instead look at him and shrug.

This is golden

I come through this thread on occasion to take out the trash, but you can help by using the Report Post button (the red & white triangle at the bottom left of each post block under the poster's information) to let the mods know when the thread has gotten off track.

If you have any questions/comments/concerns, please send me a PM or post in the Moderation Discussion Thread. Thanks.

No in their world thats how luck works, reminds me of a time when this guy was complaining about how he hasnt hit a set all day, he was so tilted and wouldnt stop talking about how unlucky he was blah blah blah.

Finally he hits his set and at the river he leads for about $100 one guy calls and the rasier is so giddy in wanting to show the table he has a set he doesnt notice the other player still in the pot counting out chips for a raise and flips his cards over as the guy was moving his stack twoards the betting line.

Iv never had my heart warmed in such a way it was like trying chocalate for the first time seeing another human being own themselves so hard. Two minutes later the guy silently left.

The best part about that post was that so many people couldn't grasp the following.

Let's assume we are at a 9 person table. We ahve two spades and there are two spades on the flop. 17 of the 47 unknown cards are either in the muck, the burn or in the hands of people still in the hand. This means we can assume 3 of our 9 outs are not left in the stub. Here's where people couldn't grasp that its now 6/30 and not 6/44. Couldn't get it through their head that 9/47 and 6/30 are the same thing.

Is this real?

oh its very real... Some of the discussions on there are quite hilarious.

No, we can't assume that. There could be anywhere from 0 to 9 outs left in the stub, and I can calculate a probability for each case. The lack of understanding of probability is staggering at the average poker table.

Yes that is correct. That part was all their logic. They were saying that since 17 cards are dead to us that the probability is that 3 of the 9 flush outs are gone so they are not 19% or so to win because there really is around 6 cards left.

I tried to explain that if that is how you are thinking then 3 of your flush cards are out as well as 14 non flush cards so the stub is now 30 cards and 6 of those 30 are your flush outs. This leaves you with the same % to catch your flush. Was just giving them reasoning based on their reasoning why we count all unknown cards to us as outs, doesn't matter if they are in the muck, burn, or left in the stub.

My head hurts

Its contagious and hurts like hell.

Reminds me of a sequence from a couple of years ago.

I'm fairly new to the table and pick up AA. I bet all three streets and it holds up for a nice pot.

Next hand I pick up AA again, re-raise pre and get two callers to a dry flop. SPR is good and I open for about 1/2PSB.

V1 looks at me and says, "AA again?"

"Yes."

V1 folds, but V2 calls me all the way down with middle pair, and at showdown says, "I just didn't think you could have AA again."

1/2 Game.. rainbow flop: face card, a 10 and a low card (sorry, don't remember the exact cards). There has been a preflop raise to $10 by the now (3rd) last to act player.

First player to act bets about a pot sized bet, 2nd player calls, 3rd player bets enough to put first player all in -- a little over $150.

First player calls the 150 all in.

2nd player calls and is now all in (on her 5th rebuy in about 10 hands).

2nd player's husband isn't playing and is waiting for her and coming over to talk with her periodically between hands. It's apparent they both think she may be a poker whiz.

Board runs out, and 3rd player (who initiated the all-in calls and had a grip on what was what with who was in the hand) shows TPTK for the win.

2nd player shows Q 2 suited. She had NO Pair on the rainbow flop. She shakes her head and explains to her husband who comes to see what's up that she lost on her "flush draw".

Meanwhile 1st player? He called the $150 all in with a gut shot...

It was a fun night...