Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Rick
This brings to mind the game show "Lets Make a deal".
At the end of the show the two contestants with the most winnings that show got to trade their winnings to choose Door # 1, Door #2, or Door #3. Behind one of the Doors was a grand prize worth significantly more than anything given away so far. Typically behind one door was absolute junk.
After some haggling (to see if they would give up their Door) Monte Hall would open up one Door. Assume that Monte always opened up a Door that one of them chose, and that it was not the "winning" Door with the giant prize. Did the odds of the other contestant just go up to 50% from 33%?
This is the apparent dilemma here. Devoid of any other info, it looks like it is less likely the guy has a Q. However, the other guy may be the "Monte Hall" of this scenario. He knows whether or not he has it and you don't. So if he bets strongly, he may very well have it. And with Monte Hall, even though he always followed up with a good offer for the unopened door, the quality of the offer for those who watched the show religiously, may very well have been the tell (i.e., better offer for the real grand prize door).
I would also think that there is a non-zero chance I have added absolutely nothing to this thread. However, in that case, this can be considered what I bring to the table.
I don't know about adding anything but I fell in love with you after this post. If you carry the analogy farther, when given the chance to switch doors, you should (in the absence of some tell). There was a 1/3 chance that your original door you chose had the grand prize behind it and a 1/2 chance that the grand prize is behind the other door. In the same way, knowing that there are two queens on the flop means that you now know that of the 48 remaining cards unknown to you, two in your opponents hand, only two are queens. Exactly because the flopped cards cannot change the odds of being delt queens, you now know that there were only two queens that could have been dealt to your opponent out of the 48 cards whose position in the deck you cannot know.
Of course given the fact that it's a face card, of the 20 cards not folded preflop, odds are someone has it.
Onthe end, true odds are he either has it or he doesn't.