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Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels?

05-07-2008 , 09:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by olivert
The WSOP as a standalone tournament poker business is simply NOT profitable without a substantial TV rights fee in the U.S. market given that product sponsorship revenue remains small.

The overhead required to operate the WSOP tournaments will eat up all the entry fees, and then some.

With the November Main Event final table, the overhead has gone up substantially. The set-up cost for the TV arena has doubled.

Given that the November WSOP Main Event final table is now a legitimate major security risk (i.e. potential acts of violence or terrorism, either by individuals or groups seeking to make a statement in front of TV cameras) because of all the controversy, the WSOP organizers will likely have to budget for additional security (i.e. involvement by local, state, and Federal law enforcement officials) to prevent sabotage.

==

Cliff notes:

WSOP with no TV rights fee = unprofitable

WSOP with no U.S. TV rights fee = sell WSOP to another entity with European focus
There's a much more significant risk of collusion and those kind of things for the Nov. FT vs. it being a terror threat...you mean to tell me there's a significant risk of a group trying to infiltrate the Rio? C'mon..........won't & couldn't happen. Extra security will be in place only to insure fair play.
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-07-2008 , 09:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevmath
In your opinion Oliver, how much do the ratings have to improve for the WSOP to stay in Vegas (and not move to Dubai like you claim will happen).
The final hour of the 2006 WSOP Main Event Final Table drew about 1.9 million viewers during the first run, down from 2.1 million viewers in 2005 and 2.8 million viewers in 2004.

(I don't have the number for 2007, but I suspect that it was down compared to 2006.)

I suspect that the final hour of the 2008 WSOP Main Event final table will need to equal the 2006 viewership, i.e. 1.9 million viewers (1.6 million households), with about 0.9-1 million of those viewers in the 18-49 age demographic and 450,000-500,000 viewers in the 18-34 age demographic, in order for ESPN to be satisfied that the "November final table" was the necessary fix to stop ratings erosion among viewers the 18-34 and 18-49 age demographics.

If only 200,000-250,000 viewers in the 18-34 demographic were to tune in for the final hour of the 2008 WSOP Main Event final table, then I suspect that ESPN would have no choice but to walk away.

--

Cliff notes version - for the final hour of the 2008 WSOP Main Event, I am looking for:

about 1.9-2.0 million total viewers
about 900,000 -1 million viewers ages 18-49
about 450,000 - 500,000 viewers ages 18-34

Last edited by olivert; 05-07-2008 at 09:31 PM.
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-07-2008 , 09:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by olivert
Given that the November WSOP Main Event final table is now a legitimate major security risk (i.e. potential acts of violence or terrorism, either by individuals or groups seeking to make a statement in front of TV cameras) because of all the controversy, the WSOP organizers will likely have to budget for additional security (i.e. involvement by local, state, and Federal law enforcement officials) to prevent sabotage.
But it wasn't before when they carried out the money and put it in cardboard boxes next to the table?
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-07-2008 , 09:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Bando
But it wasn't before when they carried out the money and put it in cardboard boxes next to the table?
I am talking about Super Bowl-style security precautions, i.e. snipers on the roof above entrances; metal detectors and bomb-sniffing dogs at entrances to screen every spectator, player, and media member; solid barriers in the parking lots to prevent truck bombs from approaching the building, helicopters and/or fighter jets patrolling the building from above to prevent kamikaze pilots and 9/11-style suicide hijackers from crashing planes into the building deliberately, etc.

The security threat has gone up substantially from previous years in my opinion. There are too many people who are upset with the WSOP organization for moving the WSOP Main Event final table to November.
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-07-2008 , 10:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by olivert
I am talking about Super Bowl-style security precautions, i.e. snipers on the roof above entrances; metal detectors and bomb-sniffing dogs at entrances to screen every spectator, player, and media member; solid barriers in the parking lots to prevent truck bombs from approaching the building, helicopters and/or fighter jets patrolling the building from above to prevent kamikaze pilots and 9/11-style suicide hijackers from crashing planes into the building deliberately, etc.

The security threat has gone up substantially from previous years in my opinion. There are too many people who are upset with the WSOP organization for moving the WSOP Main Event final table to November.
I knew that you meant SB level security. But I don't see the people who are upset about the FT being THAT upset. CindyLady is not going to run in there guns a blazing.
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-07-2008 , 11:53 PM
Clearly, what we need is an online poker room to buy the WSOP brand name and rotate it between Asia, Europe, and a few other places.

Disclaimer: This is a joke post that does not require a long screed in reply from olivert
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-08-2008 , 12:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by olivert
I am talking about Super Bowl-style security precautions, i.e. snipers on the roof above entrances; metal detectors and bomb-sniffing dogs at entrances to screen every spectator, player, and media member; solid barriers in the parking lots to prevent truck bombs from approaching the building, helicopters and/or fighter jets patrolling the building from above to prevent kamikaze pilots and 9/11-style suicide hijackers from crashing planes into the building deliberately, etc.

The security threat has gone up substantially from previous years in my opinion. There are too many people who are upset with the WSOP organization for moving the WSOP Main Event final table to November.
Are you actually saying that there are people who are so upset with Harrah's for moving the final table to November that they would crash a plane into the Rio? Or drive a truck bomb up to the door? You really think that the final table of the World Series of Poker is such an inviting target for an attack that there need to be snipers and F-16's guarding it???

I also don't see why moving the final table to November makes it a more inviting target that it's been in years past. If you're a terrorist and you want to inflict massive casualties and want all that horror broadcast live on TV, you'd be better off hitting any NFL game. Or any college football game. Or just about any major sporting event that comes to mind.
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-08-2008 , 12:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by olivert
I am talking about Super Bowl-style security precautions, i.e. snipers on the roof above entrances; metal detectors and bomb-sniffing dogs at entrances to screen every spectator, player, and media member; solid barriers in the parking lots to prevent truck bombs from approaching the building, helicopters and/or fighter jets patrolling the building from above to prevent kamikaze pilots and 9/11-style suicide hijackers from crashing planes into the building deliberately, etc.

The security threat has gone up substantially from previous years in my opinion. There are too many people who are upset with the WSOP organization for moving the WSOP Main Event final table to November.
I really don't think they'll use Super Bowl style security for the WSOP ME, I'd say that there's a much higher risk of something terroristic happening at the Presidential Conventions this summer, the MLB All-Star game, etc.

Besides...I'd bet that our folks at Homeland Security would have intel on such a plot far in advance. I'd say that the only issues that I've read about happening at the WSOP in recent years has been a few death threats against certain players...not a massive full scale plot to blow up a casino.
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-08-2008 , 02:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by olivert
WSOP with no TV rights fee = unprofitable

WSOP with no U.S. TV rights fee = sell WSOP to another entity with European focus
Given these 'facts' I'm stunned that poker has lasted as long as it has. What with all of these unprofitable, untelevised tournaments going on around the country.
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-08-2008 , 08:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MeanGene
Are you actually saying that there are people who are so upset with Harrah's for moving the final table to November that they would crash a plane into the Rio? Or drive a truck bomb up to the door? You really think that the final table of the World Series of Poker is such an inviting target for an attack that there need to be snipers and F-16's guarding it???

I also don't see why moving the final table to November makes it a more inviting target that it's been in years past. If you're a terrorist and you want to inflict massive casualties and want all that horror broadcast live on TV, you'd be better off hitting any NFL game. Or any college football game. Or just about any major sporting event that comes to mind.
As we have learned from Oklahoma City and Atlanta, domestic terrorists are looking for "soft" targets.

Characteristics of "soft" targets:

1. Complacent management who underestimate potential problems until they surface, forcing management to become reactive

2. Complacent participants who underestimate the potential threat

The WSOP is a "soft" target, making it a more likely candidate for domestic terrorism than "hard" targets such as football stadiums.
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-08-2008 , 09:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by olivert
As we have learned from Oklahoma City and Atlanta, domestic terrorists are looking for "soft" targets.

Characteristics of "soft" targets:

1. Complacent management who underestimate potential problems until they surface, forcing management to become reactive

2. Complacent participants who underestimate the potential threat

The WSOP is a "soft" target, making it a more likely candidate for domestic terrorism than "hard" targets such as football stadiums.
I get your point about a soft target...but let's be honest...I don't think that a terrorist org. is thinking they'll make an effective statement by bombing or raiding the WSOP.

Vegas...I could understand...but specifically the WSOP...a conspiracy theory that's off base IMO
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-08-2008 , 10:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by olivert
As we have learned from Oklahoma City and Atlanta, domestic terrorists are looking for "soft" targets.

Characteristics of "soft" targets:

1. Complacent management who underestimate potential problems until they surface, forcing management to become reactive

2. Complacent participants who underestimate the potential threat

The WSOP is a "soft" target, making it a more likely candidate for domestic terrorism than "hard" targets such as football stadiums.
The Atlanta Olympics were a "soft" target? I'd think there's a good bit of security at any Olympiad. And Richard Jewell did discover Rudolph's bomb before it detonated.

I still don't see why moving the final table to November is such an outrage that it would move someone to domestic terrorism. I can see people refusing to play in the Main Event or, if they do, loudly booing Jeffrey Pollack when he steps up to the mike. I have a harder time imagining even the most ticked-off poker player summoning enough rage to commit mass murder. Besides, making a bomb isn't easy, you gotta patiently mix all that fertilizer and fuel oil together...seems too much like work. Maybe if there was some sort of prop bet involved...nah, still doesn't make sense.

Nor do I think that this year's Main Event would make a more tempting target than in years past. Heck, you've said that poker's popularity has peaked, and then ebbed. The enterprising terrorist group could easily brainstorm targets that would cause far more horror and cultural shock than bombing a poker tournament. The red carpet at the Academy Awards springs to mind. A taping of American Idol? Heck, a bomb at the NFL Draft a few weeks ago would've sent millions of chubby weekend warriors into despair.

OK, I think that's enough doomsday scenarios before I've had my second cup of coffee. But I don't think snipers, combat air patrol, and turning the Rio into a fortress are reasonable responses to the potential threat. And if I hear the words "cavity search" uttered while I'm there I'm turning in my press pass.
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-08-2008 , 10:33 AM
So in essence, the WSOP is going to Dubai next year, if its not being wiped out by terrorists this year anyway. Lol.
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-08-2008 , 10:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MeanGene
The Atlanta Olympics were a "soft" target? I'd think there's a good bit of security at any Olympiad. And Richard Jewell did discover Rudolph's bomb before it detonated.
Centennial Olympic Park, where the pipe bomb went off, was a classic case of a "soft" target.

Why?

The security team in charge of Atlanta 1996 was so worried about the safety of the athletes and the officials at the venues and the athletes' village that they completely forgot about Centennial Olympic Park.

"Soft" targets are "soft" for two reasons: complacency and carelessness by both event organizers and participants.

The WSOP has all the classic signs of a "soft" target for angry individuals to exploit.
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-08-2008 , 11:17 AM
That was over 10 years ago you clown.

It's not like 911 happens every year, it was 7 years ago now. **** happens every few years, but you can't seriously expect anyone to believe there's some crazy threat every second of every day.

Please stop fear mongering.
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-08-2008 , 12:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by olivert
Centennial Olympic Park, where the pipe bomb went off, was a classic case of a "soft" target.

Why?

The security team in charge of Atlanta 1996 was so worried about the safety of the athletes and the officials at the venues and the athletes' village that they completely forgot about Centennial Olympic Park.

"Soft" targets are "soft" for two reasons: complacency and carelessness by both event organizers and participants.

The WSOP has all the classic signs of a "soft" target for angry individuals to exploit.
I'd say that Centennial Park was a "soft" target because...it's a park. It's an open area where people can move about freely and enjoy the space. I don't care how vigilant or how security-obsessed an event organizer or the folks attending the event are, if you have tens of thousands of people walking around outdoors in a big space there's no way to fully secure the area. And really, why would you want to? It's a park.

And, of course, there was security at Centennial Park--Richard Jewell found the bomb Rudolph planted and the crowd was being evacuated when it detonated. So the organizers certainly didn't "forget" about the park. Had there been a bombing on one of the freeways leading to the Olympic stadium, would that have been a failure of the organizer's vigilance as well?

If you erect concrete barriers and blast screens and have SWAT teams straining at the leash and jets flying overhead and helicopters swooping about and undercover agents milling about the crowd...does this count as "vigilance"? To get into the Rio must I be frisked, walk through a metal detector, get snarled at by a bomb-sniffing dog, and then hand over my backpack, laptop, camera, iPod, cell phone and anything else that could theoretically contain a weapon for examination? The response seems wildly out of proportion to the potential threat.
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-08-2008 , 02:02 PM
With regards to the WSOP 2008 being a potential target for terrorist activities, lets be real here folks. If you mention the 'World Series' in June to the average Joe Blow the reaction you'll get is "what are you talking about, baseball season runs until the end of September???".
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-08-2008 , 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JBS1273
I get your point about a soft target...but let's be honest...I don't think that a terrorist org. is thinking they'll make an effective statement by bombing or raiding the WSOP.

Vegas...I could understand...but specifically the WSOP...a conspiracy theory that's off base IMO
If you were going to target Vegas, what would you go after? I can see the WSOP as a relatively high-profile target. Personally, I'd get a kick out of crashing planes into New York, New York, but that's just me.
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-08-2008 , 03:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by olivert
I am talking about Super Bowl-style security precautions, i.e. snipers on the roof above entrances; metal detectors and bomb-sniffing dogs at entrances to screen every spectator, player, and media member; solid barriers in the parking lots to prevent truck bombs from approaching the building, helicopters and/or fighter jets patrolling the building from above to prevent kamikaze pilots and 9/11-style suicide hijackers from crashing planes into the building deliberately, etc.
Quote:
Originally Posted by olivert
As we have learned from Oklahoma City and Atlanta, domestic terrorists are looking for "soft" targets. ... The WSOP is a "soft" target, making it a more likely candidate for domestic terrorism than "hard" targets such as football stadiums.
I take these two statements to be contradictory. Domestic terrorists (using the two examples you gave) wouldn't need snipers and fighter jets to deter them. That's complete overkill.

Do I think there's a security risk at the final table? Absolutely. You have millions of dollars in cash, a large crowd, and a media event. But "Super Bowl-style security" is called that for a reason -- because it's the Super Bowl. There's nothing more high profile than that.

I think the WSOP needs to have "WSOP-style security."
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-08-2008 , 05:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZPinhead
With all the threats of 'gloom and doom' over diminishing poker TV viewership, what do we think would really happen if ESPN just decided to focus it's all seeing eye somewhere else and when back to a couple hours coverage of the ME and nothing else? Would the WSOP close up shop? Would the sky actually fall?

All serious opinions welcome.
Pro wrestling went from midnight and Saturday afternoon on the "muthaship" (TBS) for years- ten years(or so) ago it got big and was all over the place during prime time and now I can't find it anymore. TV poker will probably go the same way- it will be on in ten years but we won't know where or when.
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-08-2008 , 05:52 PM
Raw has been airing on the same day for over 15 years between USA and TNN/Spike.
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-08-2008 , 06:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyironboard
Pro wrestling went from midnight and Saturday afternoon on the "muthaship" (TBS) for years- ten years(or so) ago it got big and was all over the place during prime time and now I can't find it anymore. TV poker will probably go the same way- it will be on in ten years but we won't know where or when.
Wrestling had a ten year run on top. Poker had at most 18 months and never got as popular as wrestling.
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-08-2008 , 07:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevmath
Raw has been airing on the same day for over 15 years between USA and TNN/Spike.

I didn't know TNN became Spike.
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-08-2008 , 07:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jogsxyz
Wrestling had a ten year run on top. Poker had at most 18 months and never got as popular as wrestling.
The peak I was talking about was when Nitro and and Raw were going head to head- Goldberg on TV Guide...- that was about a three year run at best.
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote
05-08-2008 , 07:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jogsxyz
Wrestling had a ten year run on top. Poker had at most 18 months and never got as popular as wrestling.
The peak I was talking about was when Nitro and and Raw were going head to head- Goldberg on TV Guide...- that was about a three year run at best it hung on a little longer but the peak past before it was axed.

http://www.tv.com/wcw-monday-nitro/s...8/summary.html
Hypothetically what if ESPN cut WSOP coverage back to pre-2003 levels? Quote

      
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