At least in NYC, there are clearly people with COVID that aren't sick enough to get tested. There are a lot of people in the city with mild to moderate symptoms that aren't getting tested because really tests are only happening in the hospitals (and maybe for first responders/drs/nurses etc. or very rich people) and you're only going to the hospital if you're very sick.

Upshot of that is that the number infected here is surely much, much larger than what's being reported, and that the fatality rate of COVID is much less than being reported because those tested are mainly those who have a bad enough case to require medical care/hospitalization.

And on the flip side, not everyone who dies of COVID is being tested once they have died.

In several states, people who have died in Nursing homes have not been tested for COVID. This is also true in Spain and France.

I can't say that this is true in NYC. But with dead people being loaded onto refrigerated trucks parked next to hospitals I am not feeling confident that in non-hospital settings, people are being tested once they are dead.

Those numbers may not catch up until the death certificate is issued ... which will depend on location and how thorough the coroner wants to be with the cause. 'Natural' is a pretty easy way to go for older folks if they want to get on to the next one. GL

However, it's not because someone got through it that he/she will not catch it again. It's not like chicken pox where you're pretty much immune to it once you got it.

Source? AFAIK this is neither proved nor disproved, they just don't know yet (about COVID-19 duh, not chicken pox).

Well, that's what I meant, neither side has been proved yet AFAIK. So releasing people back into society wouldn't be the most cautious thing to do.

It might be a leap to compare covid-19 to a flu, but something like influenza flu, you can still get it even after having gotten it previously (assuming you haven't had a flu shot yet).

Good question. He wrote the above posts on March 11th & 12th, so we're just now starting the 4th week since he made his "I told you so" prediction of no more than 500 deaths. We'll see if he has the balls to come back and admit how wrong he was.

Sadly, there were more than 500 deaths in NYC alone just in the last 24 hours.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/new-...yesterday.html

And according to Johns Hopkins, there have already been 6,058 deaths in the U.S. to this point in time. (Which is double from where we were when you posted just a few days ago.) We're already 10x MikeStarr's prediction, and unfortunately, we're still in the early stages of this.

Make Bovada Great Again! I'm loving their zone poker.

Interesting you know this. You probabaly should contact Dr Faucci as he has specifically stated that is something they are working to understand.

Actuall6 you do develop immunity to THAT specific virus. How long itt depends. But the reason you catch the flu again or need a new vaccine each year is because the flu virus changes so it is new to your defenses.

All I have seen is they do expect you develop a certain amount of immunity to covid-19. How strong and how long is the question.

The good news is this virus does not appear to be mutating quickly.

MS comments were ridiculous when made. But that was for NY state. Probably won’t have 500 in NYC alone for another day or two.

Sure, you could develop a certain amount of immunity, but like you said, the virus could also mutate.

Doesn't seem like a chicken pox (almost) full-blown immunity though.

I don't think this is accurate. I think once you have had a strain of flu, you cannot get that strain again.

Covid-19 has not shown the tendency to mutate the way influenza does.

Not yet.

Something close to it seems possible and maybe even likely.

As to your subsequent Not Yet comment, it isn’t like it can just decide to change its natural make up. Stable viruses usuall6 remain stable and all detailed analysis of this one show it is stable.

Almost anything is possible but I will focus on the likely.

Not only this but this aquifer immunity works on mutated viruses. Not as well but it helps. Consider that all of the influenza A we catch today are mutations of the 1917 Spanish Flu. Notice that we have some limited immunity to influenza A. It does not spread at all like it did a hundred years ago when a third of the world caught it in two years. When we catch it now it is also less deadly.

As viruses mutate they tend to become less deadly but the immunity we have acquired also still provides protection against these mutated viruses.

Just saw a clip on CNN where some scientists believe that the virus (a weaker form) has been in the human population for months or years before Wuhan. And then adapted/mutated to the virulent thing it is now in Wuhan.

cnn

And chicken pox can stay in the body. It can resurface as "shingles" years later.

Are you guys holding casino chips? Is there any way to change them for cash?

Sell them on ebay to a collector.

I got shingles last year in my mid-thirties! It's scary as hell when you don't know what it is, but otherwise it's just a temporary annoyance. Scarring is rare. There's no sign I ever had it now.

I warned players in my room to cash out all their chips but they didn't seem to worry about it. I would call your casino and ask them if you can somehow do it.

I don't think poker will ever be back to where it was before, I hope I'm wrong of course but looking at the casinos in China that have just reopened it's gonna be a whole new experience and players are not gonna wanna congregate in crowded places anymore, thats why it was dead even prior to everyone being shut down.

This is an interesting article on the future of casino gambling, and I don't think the casinos in the states would start to reopen at least until the 4th of July mark my word an I'm not gonna be back till then when I'm gonna say see I told ya...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/casinos...au-11585280952

Edit: I just read the whole article now they're requiring a subscription don't pay those guys a penny basically what the article said was the casinos in China have opened but there are very few people going there; they're required to wear a mask and need to get their temperatures taken at the door and theyre seating them far apart from each other, and no food eating at the tables allowed

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I think it's a bit overdramatic to say poker won't come back, but to expect it any time soon is unrealistic. There is bound to be a significant transition where distancing is commonplace and that's what we're seeing the early stages of in China. People have short memories and once getting on a train or drinking in a bar feel normal again enough people will relax and want to play poker. Personally I don't see how we can reach this stage until a vaccine is available, which looks like at least a year away.

Face masks are a bit of a red herring. Lots of people in Asian countries wore face masks in public long before this all kicked off - I don't know if that is an after effect of e.g. sars or some other reason like pollution, but it tells me it was already an accepted thing so was very naturally widely adopted when this all kicked off. I don't see British public ever accepting facemasks in public as commonplace - it feels like the same would be true in the US even if they are now being recommended.

Why would you say it's "likely"?

Yes, but it occurs somewhat rarely. And there's a vaccine for shingles.