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Old 03-14-2020, 02:48 PM   #101
Alpha Fish
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
Someone pointed out to me that H1N1 killed around 12k people (US) and this seems worse. I think this is a pretty bad bet for me. I didn't still didn't find a line though.

I'll snap accept the 100:1 offer if Alpha-fish is serious, but I'd want to use an escrow because he's clearly not serious.
oh I'm serious like a heart attack but obv makes no sense putting money in escrow for a couple of months for a 1% gain

I'll give you even money on 50K deaths - lmk how much you want to bet
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Old 03-14-2020, 03:20 PM   #102
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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Originally Posted by SpewingIsMyMove View Post
So, who have you interacted with (or plan to interact with in the next 14 days)? Because you also are exposing them.

One of the reasons why containment will fail is too many people placing their uninformed opinions over the advice of subject matter experts, or thinking only of themselves and not the risk to the community.
Containment has already failed. It failed weeks ago.

In the first address to the nation that I remember Trump giving, where he said something like "we have 15 cases. In a short time it will go down to 5 and then to 0" the next person to speak was a Dr. and he said "it is not a question of if but when [it will spread]"

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Don't think it's dumb to continue on with life. Many projections are for most getting it eventually anyway, so better early or late ... not during the surge in the middle. Say you drastically halt life and sacrifice most everything for nine months then get it anyway, which is one likely scenario. We're still way more likely to die of something else while we are surrendering the pursuit of happiness to one possible cause of demise, which we don't do for any of the other possibilities. There are infectious diseases which call for totally draconian measures, bubonic plague for one, ebola, etc. I get the shape of the curve thing -- must be a classic calculus problem -- we slow it by distancing but not by quitting life.

Just a take.
I have seen no projections that "most" will get it. All I have seen are ballpark projections that 20% to 60% of the population could get it. Or 30% to 70%.

And one of the ways that it can be held to the lower numbers are if we can delay the spread of the disease until a vaccine is ready.

Another way is totally random and depends on how the virus does in the summer months.

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Let's say we succeed in taking countermeasures sufficient to slow the spread of the disease until the summer, when supposedly conditions will be less conductive to it spreading in general. Is the idea that when it reappears in the fall or early winter - and it will reappear unless it truly burns out, which ain't happening unless enough people catch it or it's eradicated around the world - there will be an available vaccine or some anti-viral cocktail that will have been discovered? Seems like a reach, but then again what do I know. ...
A vaccine won't be out there for at least a year (from a couple of weeks ago) according to experts.

On a different note, Foxwoods (FW) is shutting down their poker room on Monday through Thursday (at least). And same with their Mega Stacks tournament. They will play the last Day 1's of the $400 on Sunday and then Day 2 on Monday. But their other scheduled Monday Tournaments will be cancelled.

I had stupidly argued with my wife that I could go play this week and then isolate myself for 4 or 5 days after the last tourney and then come home if I had no systems (or die if I did). And then there are no tournies for me to play in (aside from Sunday's).

According to a FW Floor, there have been no cases of Coronavirus yet by any of their customers. And if anybody looks sick (either coughing, sneezing, or sweaty) they are looking to remove them.

I made another suggestion that hopefully will be implemented (OK not much chance of that). They should have somebody at every entrance taking all patron's temperature (like they check all bags).
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Old 03-14-2020, 03:34 PM   #103
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

Wynn start doing that soon with the temperature, you won't even know.
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Old 03-15-2020, 08:03 PM   #104
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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Containment has already failed. It failed weeks ago.

In the first address to the nation that I remember Trump giving, where he said something like "we have 15 cases. In a short time it will go down to 5 and then to 0" the next person to speak was a Dr. and he said "it is not a question of if but when [it will spread]"


I have seen no projections that "most" will get it. All I have seen are ballpark projections that 20% to 60% of the population could get it. Or 30% to 70%.

And one of the ways that it can be held to the lower numbers are if we can delay the spread of the disease until a vaccine is ready.

Another way is totally random and depends on how the virus does in the summer months.


A vaccine won't be out there for at least a year (from a couple of weeks ago) according to experts.

On a different note, Foxwoods (FW) is shutting down their poker room on Monday through Thursday (at least). And same with their Mega Stacks tournament. They will play the last Day 1's of the $400 on Sunday and then Day 2 on Monday. But their other scheduled Monday Tournaments will be cancelled.

I had stupidly argued with my wife that I could go play this week and then isolate myself for 4 or 5 days after the last tourney and then come home if I had no systems (or die if I did). And then there are no tournies for me to play in (aside from Sunday's).

According to a FW Floor, there have been no cases of Coronavirus yet by any of their customers. And if anybody looks sick (either coughing, sneezing, or sweaty) they are looking to remove them.

I made another suggestion that hopefully will be implemented (OK not much chance of that). They should have somebody at every entrance taking all patron's temperature (like they check all bags).

Harvard epidemiologist 40-70% projection. If no vaccine within two years and it recurs, that moves way up. Many more projections along those lines, but thanks for the edit.
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Old 03-16-2020, 12:12 AM   #105
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

Leader of vaccine team ... "60 to 67% of world population"
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Old 03-16-2020, 08:25 AM   #106
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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Leader of vaccine team ... "60 to 67% of world population"
I don't think people have really wrapped their head around this number, as it seems so wildly preposterous. You are talking between 45 million and 165 million dead (depending on the shape of the curve and the actual CFR). That number is so large, it is difficult to comprehend.
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Old 03-16-2020, 06:17 PM   #107
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

UPDATE: VA now says it is tracking 30 veterans who have tested positive, or presumptively positive, for #COVID19. #coronavirus

VA still says it has administered 100 tests -- unchanged since last week.

1 veteran so far has died because of the virus.

https://connectingvets.radio.com/art...on-man-va-says https://twitter.com/AbbieRBennett/st...76337901400064

9 Million veterans, only 100 tested, 30 of those prove positive for the virus.

'Nuff said.

Last edited by dinesh; 03-16-2020 at 09:18 PM.
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Old 03-17-2020, 02:04 PM   #108
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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I don't think people have really wrapped their head around this number, as it seems so wildly preposterous. You are talking between 45 million and 165 million dead (depending on the shape of the curve and the actual CFR). That number is so large, it is difficult to comprehend.
It isn't so much that it "seems so wildly preposterous" as it is that most people recognize that the fear-mongering media wants people to believe that two out of every three people are going to be seriously ill. THAT simply is not the case. There will be MANY who never even become symptomatic even if they DID test positive (not unlike Idris Elba) or who basically have a case of the sniffles or a fever for a day (like the Yankees minor league player or the Jazz players).
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Old 03-17-2020, 02:16 PM   #109
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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It isn't so much that it "seems so wildly preposterous" as it is that most people recognize that the fear-mongering media wants people to believe that two out of every three people are going to be seriously ill. THAT simply is not the case. There will be MANY who never even become symptomatic even if they DID test positive (not unlike Idris Elba) or who basically have a case of the sniffles or a fever for a day (like the Yankees minor league player or the Jazz players).
I'm really getting curious, and I don't get all my news from a single source. What media is everyone that is complaining about fear mongering watching? Every media report I have heard since day one has estimated 80% of infected individuals will NOT be seriously ill and some will be asymptomatic (which actually causes a different set of issues). This means only 20% or 1 in 5 are seriously ill which is a far cry from your 2 out of 3 or 66%. Mortality rates have varied from 1-3.5% in estimation with the latest estimates closer to the 1% range and most outlets saying that they are in fact estimates and will become more precise over time.
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Old 03-17-2020, 02:33 PM   #110
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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It isn't so much that it "seems so wildly preposterous" as it is that most people recognize that the fear-mongering media wants people to believe that two out of every three people are going to be seriously ill. THAT simply is not the case. There will be MANY who never even become symptomatic even if they DID test positive (not unlike Idris Elba) or who basically have a case of the sniffles or a fever for a day (like the Yankees minor league player or the Jazz players).
I can't agree with you about the fear mongering media. Most reports I read are not terribly hyperbolic. I do get annoyed at the characterization of COVID-19 as a deadly virus, although that is technically true. Other than that, I do not blame the media for people's reactions. The 70% numbers are not coming from the media, but from epidemiologists (I believe at 55% infected, herd immunity starts to kick in, and 70% is where they feel sufficient herd immunity will stop the virus).
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Old 03-17-2020, 02:36 PM   #111
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

Yeah but those numbers (55-70%) are infected people, not ill people.
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Old 03-17-2020, 02:43 PM   #112
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

Statistics may never really show or explain the true infiltration. One thing that should be easy to explain is that when you are 'theoretically' only testing 'at risk' or people who are already showing symptoms is that the stats will be skewed higher. Whether or not the media is spinning those numbers correctly or people just aren't willing to accept the logic of that fact in general can create a higher level of concern than the actual numbers 'may' project when they are given the opportunity to flatten out.

The issue is resources ...
... There aren't enough tests (or time to process the tests) on 'everyone'
... There 'may' be a shortage of resources to 'properly' care for those that are subjected to the full effects
... There is zero history to work from ... This is actually 'history in the making' hour to hour, day to day.

Based on all of this we react in a manner that hopefully slows the spread, and thus slows the need for those potentially limited resources.

To really hammer my point ...
.. Go to the mall and randomly ask (test) folks if they've ever committed a crime.
.. Go to the jail and 'randomly' ask the same question. (Although some will still believe they haven't!!)
.. Go to the hospital and ask who's sick? (Although some will insist they aren't!!)

In my (no basis simple) opinion, we will probably find that a very large portion of the total population can/will carry this virus and pass it on to others. We will find a very large portion (but not all) of the carriers will show at least some symptoms .... and then we can continue into even smaller more serious sub-groups eventually whittling our way down to the portion of most extreme cases ending in death.

Most of us have been led to believe that we are in a 'safer' (non-elderly) category and thus are tempted to resist the steps being taken. I firmly believe that this will all pass 'soon', but my outlying fear is that this virus will evolve the next time around .. much like there are various strains of flu. GL
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Old 03-17-2020, 04:12 PM   #113
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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It isn't so much that it "seems so wildly preposterous" as it is that most people recognize that the fear-mongering media wants people to believe that two out of every three people are going to be seriously ill. THAT simply is not the case. There will be MANY who never even become symptomatic even if they DID test positive (not unlike Idris Elba) or who basically have a case of the sniffles or a fever for a day (like the Yankees minor league player or the Jazz players).
Count me as one of the people who doesn't think the media is saying anything like that.

I have heard several people say that 20% to 60% of the US population could get the coronavirus (one even said 30% to 70%). These people were epidemiologists who are experts in their field. I heard them on the media (mostly doctors who were being interviewed). And I read one in an article: https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/211714...e-cancellation

"According to infectious disease epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch at Harvard, it’s “plausible” that 20 to 60 percent of adults will be infected with Covid-19 disease. So far, 80 percent of cases globally have been mild, but if the case fatality rate is around 1 percent (which several experts say it may be), a scenario is possible of tens or hundreds of thousands of deaths in the US alone."

So doing the math, if 80% of the cases are mild, then the coronavirus would seriously affect only 4% to 12% of adults and would kill only 1% - according to this media article.

But you are right about one thing. My wife is panicking about this because 1% is still a very big number and she is in a high risk group. As am I.
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Old 03-17-2020, 04:30 PM   #114
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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Anyone want a prop bet that Corona kills less than 500 people in the US this year? It will probably actually be less than 100.
Took 6 days to pass the "probably" clause. Still confident in the 500 bet Mike?
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Old 03-17-2020, 05:24 PM   #115
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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if the case fatality rate is around 1 percent (which several experts say it may be), a scenario is possible of tens or hundreds of thousands of deaths in the US alone.
I know a lot of journalists are bad at math but even so I have to assume that the last sentence is just being horrifically optimistic.

1% of 20% of 350 million people = ~700 thousand people
1% of 60% of 350 million people = ~2 million people


Then there's the problem...

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the coronavirus would seriously affect only 4% to 12% of adults
4% of 20% of 350 million people = ~3 million people
12% of 60% of 350 million people = ~25 million people
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Old 03-17-2020, 09:01 PM   #116
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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I know a lot of journalists are bad at math but even so I have to assume that the last sentence is just being horrifically optimistic.

1% of 20% of 350 million people = ~700 thousand people
1% of 60% of 350 million people = ~2 million people

Then there's the problem...

4% of 20% of 350 million people = ~3 million people
12% of 60% of 350 million people = ~25 million people
I think that this part of the article was focused on adults in the US.

But yes high side estimates are now upwards of 1,000,000 deaths in the US. And possibly 2,000,000 as you note above.

I don't know why, but I am hopeful that we are flattening the curve right now. So best case we will not go through what Italy is going through with a lack of ventilators.
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Old 03-18-2020, 08:32 AM   #117
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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Took 6 days to pass the "probably" clause. Still confident in the 500 bet Mike?
Yep. Used to have a lot of respect for MikeStarr. Not so much anymore.

He came in this thread flexing his muscles, realized the wind wasn't blowing his way and left.
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Old 03-18-2020, 09:42 AM   #118
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

I'm going to tolerate a little bit of this accountability-seeking since the earlier claims were made publicly by both sides, but please don't make me regret it.

No name calling, no personal attacks, please. I'd much prefer people just talk about the facts, not the people.
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Old 03-18-2020, 09:47 AM   #119
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

This thread is a fascinating read from start to current. It is stunning how fast things have changed

This was posted 6 days ago

"Played a 15 hour session yesterday. Casino patrons were noticeably reduced. Buffet was a ghost town. "

As of yesterday (5 days after the above post) the majority of casino's in the US were closed.

We went from 18 days ago people saying they weren't worried, it was no worse than the flu (and I am not including MikeStarr's comments) to considering projections of between 1 million and 2 million dead without considering them invalid.

I attended a meeting for CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) for my local area on February 20, and we had a guest speaker from the MRC (Medical Reserve Corp) who is also in charge of managing and distributing medical stockpiles in the event of large scale incident. He said, at that time, they weren't even discussing COVID-19, and were more focused on the flu.

It is stunning how fast things are moving.
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Old 03-18-2020, 10:41 AM   #120
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

Based on what I seen with very little effort, they are breaking 'rates' down by decades of age ... teens, 20s, 30s and so on. So in order to properly project the impact you need to know how many of the 350 million fall into each category. There seems to be a pattern where the fatality rate doubles as you go up the age ranges.

And again ... These rates (based on China numbers) are based on test positives, not the genre as a whole nor any test negatives. So you first have to test positive (which essentially means you are symptomatic) to be included in the stats.

80s (14.8%) .. 70s (8%) .. 60s (3.6%) .. 50s (1.3%) .. 40s (0.4%) .. 30s (0.2%) with zero death in children 10 and under. So I keep harping that these rates are inflated if you try and correlate them to whole populations.

Even with that said, it appears that those who contract the virus and become symptomatic will have long term 'damage' to their lungs to deal with going forward. GL
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Old 03-18-2020, 10:55 AM   #121
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

I am still not concerned about the virus. I am concerned about our response to it. I wonder how many people don’t know how they’re going to pay rent next month?
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Old 03-18-2020, 11:08 AM   #122
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

If people are that short on money, most places not enforcing evictions for the next few months. Same with cable, power and water. They won't shut off.
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Old 03-18-2020, 01:01 PM   #123
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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If people are that short on money, most places not enforcing evictions for the next few months. Same with cable, power and water. They won't shut off.
They aren't getting a free pass though. They will STILL be facing eviction, it just got postponed. Meanwhile, the people getting stiffed on the rent will be dealing with a foreclosure, albeit delayed.

The piper WILL eventually be demanding payment. And a person that cannot pay next month's rent WON'T likely be in a position to pony up in ninety days.

Also, those breathing sighs of relief about the prospect of a check from the government while their job is on hiatus may come to be proof of a comment made by Mark Cuban this morning on CNBC. Specifically, Cuban noted that a business owner may find it easier to let staff know when they are aware that the now-former employee is getting a grand a month from the government.

Would also not be surprised to see that the chances are also going to be good that the federal check will disqualify that now-former employee from qualifying for State-level unemployment benefits!
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Old 03-18-2020, 01:08 PM   #124
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One of the casinos that layed off employees, I can't remember which, offered a 1 time payment of $1000 that would come with immediate termination or $140 a week thru the duration of this and staying employed on the return. Either one disqualified you from unemployment.
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Old 03-18-2020, 01:11 PM   #125
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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Based on what I seen with very little effort, they are breaking 'rates' down by decades of age ... teens, 20s, 30s and so on. So in order to properly project the impact you need to know how many of the 350 million fall into each category. There seems to be a pattern where the fatality rate doubles as you go up the age ranges.

And again ... These rates (based on China numbers) are based on test positives, not the genre as a whole nor any test negatives. So you first have to test positive (which essentially means you are symptomatic) to be included in the stats.

80s (14.8%) .. 70s (8%) .. 60s (3.6%) .. 50s (1.3%) .. 40s (0.4%) .. 30s (0.2%) with zero death in children 10 and under. So I keep harping that these rates are inflated if you try and correlate them to whole populations.

Even with that said, it appears that those who contract the virus and become symptomatic will have long term 'damage' to their lungs to deal with going forward. GL
Is this long term damage to the lungs for everybody who gets it? Or just the 20% that have to be hospitalized?

If you have a link to an article that elaborates on that, I would appreciate it.

The rates you posted above give me great hope. Just not for my 92 year old mother who lives in NYC (fortunately by herself and not in a nursing home).

If the rates above were what the "fear mongering press" were emphasizing and posted more publicly, then I could see us moving towards public gatherings/restaurants re-opening but only for people under 50 years old (both patrons and employees) who are not living with elderly people.
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