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Originally Posted by Rizzeedizzee
Let's say we succeed in taking countermeasures sufficient to slow the spread of the disease until the summer, when supposedly conditions will be less conductive to it spreading in general. Is the idea that when it reappears in the fall or early winter - and it will reappear unless it truly burns out, which ain't happening unless enough people catch it or it's eradicated around the world - there will be an available vaccine or some anti-viral cocktail that will have been discovered? Seems like a reach, but then again what do I know.
I also wonder if there will be the 9/11 effect once this is all over, where when 9/11 happened people talked about how all sorts of things will be the new normal, but a year later it was like it never happened. Will this be the end of shaking hands? Will cruise ships die out?
I... what? Things went back to normal after 9/11? Did I hallucinate the uptick in racist attacks against muslims and sikhs? The 19 years of war? Security theater at all our airports?
The idea is that by taking aggressive measures we can slow the spread to the point where the death toll is ~300,000 in the United States, instead of 1 million plus, by not ending up in the situation Italy is currently in, where doctors need to ration health care because they are overburdened. Unfortunately, it's looking like we're gonna get it at least as bad as Italy has it right now, since we're doing less than them in terms of restricting gatherings, we don't have public healthcare, we don't have mandatory paid sick leave, and we aren't testing people because we don't have tests.
I would say a fair line for # of deaths in the US directly related to COVID19 at 400,000, though I'd still be interested in the over. Over 5000 is free money at any odds