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Old 03-11-2020, 08:06 PM   #51
Mr Rick
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I'm talking about the fact that China's solution to everything is a joke. Like thinking they can build a major hospital in 10 days that wont have major problems.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/w...-hospital.html

They half ass everything. Substandard building materials. Sub standard healthcare. Lead based paints...ect. The problems they have over there with a virus like this are exaggerated compared to what it will be like here.

Sure, if the virus got out of control here it would put a major strain on our hospitals but our hospitals are able to handle the flu every year. in 2018-2019 flu season, we had 43 million people get the flu. 647,000 were hospitalized and over 61,000 died.

In 2019-2020 flu season, we've had around 40 million get the flu. Somewhere around 500,000 people hospitalized and 20,000-52,000 deaths (according to the CDC). If we can handle that many flu hospitalizations, we can handle Corona.

Why are we panicking over 1000 cases of Corona and 30 deaths? That's 0.1% of flu deaths.
This is different than the Flu. And the treatment is different than the standard treatment for the Flu.

From your statistics above probably less than 1% of people who get the Flu are hospitalized. And the treatments vary.

But in the case of the Coronavirus because of the respiratory nature of the disease, my understanding is that most people who are hospitalized will need respirators to make sure they are breathing when their lungs can no longer function. So the virus can pass while they are still alive.

And because the death rate of 3.4% is now 34x higher than the death rate for the normal Flu, that means that a much higher % of people will need to be hospitalized and will need respirators.

If the Coronavirus were left to run its course and 20% to 60% of the US population were to catch it, then roughly 60,000,000 to 200,000,000 people would get it.

That would be about 2,000,000 to 7,000,000 deaths. But it could be a lot worse than that. Because if the rate of infection goes unchecked and millions of people have it at the same time, then there won't be enough respirators to go around.

There is no need to panic. But pretending that because there have been so few deaths to date that there is no reason to mobilize and find solutions to slow the spread of the disease is in my opinion, very short sighted.

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PS...if the CDC's estimations of flu deaths this year is a range as wide as 20,000-52,000, can we really rely on much of anything they say? Surely they can narrow it down better than that? I don't trust very many of the numbers coming out. I sure as hell don't trust the numbers coming out of China.
The way the CDC comes up with their numbers is based on estimates and models. That is why they can only approximate.

From their website: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

"CDC does not know the exact number of people who have been sick and affected by influenza because influenza is not a reportable disease in most areas of the United States. However, these numbers are estimated using a mathematical model, based on observed rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations."

I personally don't trust the numbers coming out of anywhere. Including the US. The only way to know how many people have the Coronavirus would be if there was massive testing of anyone travelling from places where the outbreak is severe or who have symptoms and/or contacts. So we have no idea how many people have it. And we have no idea of how many people are dying from it (because are autopsies being performed on all who die from it? and even if so, is testing available?).

But South Korea, who has tested over 50,000 (the equivalent of 350,000 in the US) would be a place to start. And IMO would be a place to emulate as well.

The objective of identifying the virus in people is to reduce the number of contagious contacts thus slowing the spread of the disease. This could allow our hospitals to be able to treat all who are very sick. And it also allows for the development of a vaccine before the disease has spread to everyone in the US. There is probably no longer a way to stop the spread of the disease throughout our entire population.

Edit: At this point I am not going in to play tournaments (which means cash games as well). I just can't justify the possibility of bringing it home and having my wife potentially catch it. While I am somewhat at risk (I am 64 tomorrow) my wife has MS and other auto-immune issues. The death rate right now is just too much. To put it into perspective, when I was about 30 I got Hepatitis B. My doctor told me that I had about a 5% chance of dying from it. Since then I have taken precautions to keep my liver healthy including drinking a lot less than I used to... To me this is no different.

Last edited by Mr Rick; 03-11-2020 at 08:18 PM.
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Old 03-11-2020, 10:11 PM   #52
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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Anyone want a prop bet that Corona kills less than 500 people in the US this year? It will probably actually be less than 100.
How much money do you want to put down?
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Old 03-11-2020, 10:46 PM   #53
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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This is different than the Flu. And the treatment is different than the standard treatment for the Flu.

From your statistics above probably less than 1% of people who get the Flu are hospitalized. And the treatments vary.

But in the case of the Coronavirus because of the respiratory nature of the disease, my understanding is that most people who are hospitalized will need respirators to make sure they are breathing when their lungs can no longer function. So the virus can pass while they are still alive.

And because the death rate of 3.4% is now 34x higher than the death rate for the normal Flu, that means that a much higher % of people will need to be hospitalized and will need respirators.

If the Coronavirus were left to run its course and 20% to 60% of the US population were to catch it, then roughly 60,000,000 to 200,000,000 people would get it.

That would be about 2,000,000 to 7,000,000 deaths. But it could be a lot worse than that. Because if the rate of infection goes unchecked and millions of people have it at the same time, then there won't be enough respirators to go around.

There is no need to panic. But pretending that because there have been so few deaths to date that there is no reason to mobilize and find solutions to slow the spread of the disease is in my opinion, very short sighted.


The way the CDC comes up with their numbers is based on estimates and models. That is why they can only approximate.

From their website: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

"CDC does not know the exact number of people who have been sick and affected by influenza because influenza is not a reportable disease in most areas of the United States. However, these numbers are estimated using a mathematical model, based on observed rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations."

I personally don't trust the numbers coming out of anywhere. Including the US. The only way to know how many people have the Coronavirus would be if there was massive testing of anyone travelling from places where the outbreak is severe or who have symptoms and/or contacts. So we have no idea how many people have it. And we have no idea of how many people are dying from it (because are autopsies being performed on all who die from it? and even if so, is testing available?).

But South Korea, who has tested over 50,000 (the equivalent of 350,000 in the US) would be a place to start. And IMO would be a place to emulate as well.

The objective of identifying the virus in people is to reduce the number of contagious contacts thus slowing the spread of the disease. This could allow our hospitals to be able to treat all who are very sick. And it also allows for the development of a vaccine before the disease has spread to everyone in the US. There is probably no longer a way to stop the spread of the disease throughout our entire population.

Edit: At this point I am not going in to play tournaments (which means cash games as well). I just can't justify the possibility of bringing it home and having my wife potentially catch it. While I am somewhat at risk (I am 64 tomorrow) my wife has MS and other auto-immune issues. The death rate right now is just too much. To put it into perspective, when I was about 30 I got Hepatitis B. My doctor told me that I had about a 5% chance of dying from it. Since then I have taken precautions to keep my liver healthy including drinking a lot less than I used to... To me this is no different.
20-60% of the population of China, ground zero, doesnt have Corona. Why on Gods green earth would you think that many would get it here. That's ridiculous.

If you and/or your wife is high risk then smart move home as much as possible.

PS...the death rate for Corona for people under 50 is 0.4% so your extrapolation of death rates is completely out of line.
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Old 03-11-2020, 10:49 PM   #54
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

Italy just had almost 200 deaths in the last 24 hours. I'm not exactly clear, is Italy considered more or less unsanitary than China in your rankings?

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...liveBlogHeader

The good news for us in the US is that Italy has an older skewing population relative to the US, which is going to skew their mortality rate higher as well. But they are experiencing the issues with hospitals being overrun with cases (which increases mortality for both CV and for other disease modes as well), which is what we are trying to avoid, or at least slow down, here by being extra conservative in event planning.
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Old 03-11-2020, 10:55 PM   #55
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?v..._41E4gucvSQbtU

Corona virus patient says "no need to panic. Just be cautious". He said its like a mild cold

Avg age of people all over the world who have diedfrom Corona is 79. Almost exactly the same as the flu.

Last edited by MikeStarr; 03-11-2020 at 11:07 PM.
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Old 03-11-2020, 11:09 PM   #56
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

Cool. What did the people who died say? Was it like a mild death? An exciting cold? I don't speak italian so I didn't bother looking for the videos with those 200 folks who tried just being cautious but died today.
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Old 03-11-2020, 11:37 PM   #57
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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And Yes, the flu has killed 20,000 Americans this season and nobody bats an eye. Anyone want a prop bet that Corona kills less than 500 people in the US this year? It will probably actually be less than 100.
I'm interested in this prop bet, wanna do $500 at 1:1 odds?
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Old 03-12-2020, 02:11 AM   #58
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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20-60% of the population of China, ground zero, doesn't have Corona. Why on Gods green earth would you think that many would get it here? That's ridiculous.
Unlike all of the other Flu viruses that pass through the US every year, this one has never been here before. Nobody in the US has any immunity. And there are no vaccines yet.

A typical Flu would infect about 20% to 60% of a host nations population if unchecked.

This particular Flu has a rate of infection of 2.1 to 2.3 per person infected. Assuming nobody was taking any extra precautions like self isolating or quarantining.

As anybody who has figured out the question of whether you should take $1,000,000 or a penny doubled each day for a month knows, in just 31 days the amount that a doubled penny would equal is 2 billion cents (or $20,000,000).

Which is to say that if we completely ignored this virus, assuming that it would take on average one week for each infected person to infect two individuals, then the virus could infect 20% of our population within half a year.

Now as you point out the heat of summer (and perhaps the lack of humidity) could slow down the virus precipitously in the US. But it would be likely to come back to the US because it is not summer everywhere in the world.

Also FYI I am not just generating the 20% to 60% out of thin air. Those are numbers that I heard an expert citing in an interview as typical of a new virus spreading through a population that had never been exposed to it before.

And to your point, the reason why 20% of the population of China doesn't have the virus is partly because China has slowed down the spread of the virus by quarantining an entire province. As well as the fact that a ton of people are wearing gloves and masks. And another ton are not going out unless they have to. I'm guessing that they have done many other things to mitigate as well (like not holding massive events, etc.).

Quote:
If you and/or your wife is high risk then smart move home as much as possible.

PS...the death rate for Corona for people under 50 is 0.4% so your extrapolation of death rates is completely out of line.
The world wide death rate for the Corona Virus is at 3.4%. It could be higher or lower overall. And it has nothing to do with people under 50.

The people who are dying the most are those over 80. Then over 70 and at over 1% those over 60.

I just heard Dr. Fauci saying that he thinks the overall rate of death for the Coronavirus will end up being about 1% (or 10x the normal rate for the Flu). Andrew Cuomo said recently that he thought it would be about 1.4%. Which would indicate that they think the overall rate of detection of the virus is severely under-reporting the actual number of cases worldwide.

Personally I think there has been a bit of an overreaction to this Coronavirus. But in the end it will have slowed down the virus significantly until we can get massive testing capability. And then, we will know more about how and where to focus our mitigation efforts, assuming our government can get their act together.
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Old 03-12-2020, 09:36 AM   #59
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

I’m also interested in the prop bet, and am willing to wager for Mike’s entire net worth.
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Old 03-12-2020, 10:02 AM   #60
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

Still a lot of research to be done but heat doesn't kill all viruses.

I think there are people in hot climates with HIV. I think.
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Old 03-12-2020, 10:32 AM   #61
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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Are people in Las Vegas noticing decidedly less play due to the coronavirus fears? I have a trip planned for March 20 - 22 and am debating canceling if the rooms are going to be dead.
The death of poker room action ? how about spreading a disease that leads to human death ? IF you dont care about risk of you getting infected how about risk of you getting infected and spreading to others who care deeply about getting infected?

I realize this is going to have massive financial impact on room staff, but it will do the same in just about every industry. I cant imagine playing poker in a room right now. Especially with what was published yesterday regarding surface contamination. xpost from NVG thread



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But my main point is that this virus is no worse than past viruses.

thats just silly and uninformed. sounds to me that either you watch too much foxnews, are trying to squelch panic because you have vested interest in games continuing to run where you play/work, or just struggle staying informed. Last one seems most likely.

Infection rates and the tsnumai heading toward US Healthcare system is the most dangerous of many differences to other viruses. There is no way they will be able to treat the people that need ICU and general hospitalization. simply not nearly enough respirators and hospital beds.
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Old 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM   #62
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

China is slowing virus because they did massive testing to locate the positives, followed by massive quarantining. Whereas USA has done neither.
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Old 03-12-2020, 03:48 PM   #63
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

This **** is hilarious. This will be my last post on this thread for 3-4 weeks. Then Ill be back to say "I told you so".
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Old 03-12-2020, 04:13 PM   #64
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

Backing out of the bet tho, huh?
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Old 03-12-2020, 04:18 PM   #65
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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This **** is hilarious. This will be my last post on this thread for 3-4 weeks. Then Ill be back to say "I told you so".
I told you so meaning:

I told you Id take your prop bets so now Im going into hiding because I was full of ****
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Old 03-12-2020, 04:42 PM   #66
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

I tested fate today and played cash for 8 hours . I am happy to report that I am still alive.
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Old 03-12-2020, 04:45 PM   #67
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

You won't know you have it for up to 2 weeks.
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Old 03-12-2020, 04:52 PM   #68
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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This **** is hilarious. This will be my last post on this thread for 3-4 weeks. Then Ill be back to say "I told you so".
very doubtful, but bye bye just incase.

fyi in two weeks the internet (along with everything else) will be postponed/cancelled.
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Old 03-12-2020, 05:32 PM   #69
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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You won't know you have it for up to 2 weeks.
If I get it.. I will make sure to drink lots of water.
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Old 03-12-2020, 05:33 PM   #70
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

Whatever just get mikestarr out of here and we're all happy.
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Old 03-12-2020, 05:33 PM   #71
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

Water won't stop you from passing it on to others.
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Old 03-12-2020, 06:04 PM   #72
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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Water won't stop you from passing it on to others.
Ok.. Thanks for the useful info
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Old 03-12-2020, 06:10 PM   #73
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

I'm pretty sure most people on 2p2 (non seniors) don't care much abt getting sick themselves as we are a rather degenerated group. It is our families and loved ones who (should) concern us. Imagine getting your elderly mother or young daughter sick bc you couldnt stay away from cards for a few weeks. Last weekend I had no problem playing, but as everything seems to be suspended included all govnt funded schools here in ontario, all major sports and a laundry list of other events, it seems selfish to play while so many other organizations and professionals are taking precautions.
If you have a job outside of poker then great. If you don't then you better have a roll and as a player likely have a low monthly nut

Last edited by nutella virus; 03-12-2020 at 06:20 PM.
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Old 03-12-2020, 07:48 PM   #74
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

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stay away from cards for a few weeks.
few weeks?

Don't worry folks this will all be over in a few weeks.
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Old 03-12-2020, 08:30 PM   #75
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re: General poker-related coronavirus discussion, argument, and jibber jabber

Says the guy who is playing tomorrow. It's clear you're just here to troll, bruce, so just stop.
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