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Originally Posted by MikeStarr
I'm talking about the fact that China's solution to everything is a joke. Like thinking they can build a major hospital in 10 days that wont have major problems.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/w...-hospital.html
They half ass everything. Substandard building materials. Sub standard healthcare. Lead based paints...ect. The problems they have over there with a virus like this are exaggerated compared to what it will be like here.
Sure, if the virus got out of control here it would put a major strain on our hospitals but our hospitals are able to handle the flu every year. in 2018-2019 flu season, we had 43 million people get the flu. 647,000 were hospitalized and over 61,000 died.
In 2019-2020 flu season, we've had around 40 million get the flu. Somewhere around 500,000 people hospitalized and 20,000-52,000 deaths (according to the CDC). If we can handle that many flu hospitalizations, we can handle Corona.
Why are we panicking over 1000 cases of Corona and 30 deaths? That's 0.1% of flu deaths.
This is different than the Flu. And the treatment is different than the standard treatment for the Flu.
From your statistics above probably less than 1% of people who get the Flu are hospitalized. And the treatments vary.
But in the case of the Coronavirus because of the respiratory nature of the disease, my understanding is that most people who are hospitalized will need respirators to make sure they are breathing when their lungs can no longer function. So the virus can pass while they are still alive.
And because the death rate of 3.4% is now 34x higher than the death rate for the normal Flu, that means that a much higher % of people will need to be hospitalized and will need respirators.
If the Coronavirus were left to run its course and 20% to 60% of the US population were to catch it, then roughly 60,000,000 to 200,000,000 people would get it.
That would be about 2,000,000 to 7,000,000 deaths. But it could be a lot worse than that. Because if the rate of infection goes unchecked and millions of people have it at the same time, then there won't be enough respirators to go around.
There is no need to panic. But pretending that because there have been so few deaths to date that there is no reason to mobilize and find solutions to slow the spread of the disease is in my opinion, very short sighted.
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PS...if the CDC's estimations of flu deaths this year is a range as wide as 20,000-52,000, can we really rely on much of anything they say? Surely they can narrow it down better than that? I don't trust very many of the numbers coming out. I sure as hell don't trust the numbers coming out of China.
The way the CDC comes up with their numbers is based on estimates and models. That is why they can only approximate.
From their website:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm
"CDC does not know the exact number of people who have been sick and affected by influenza because influenza is not a reportable disease in most areas of the United States. However, these numbers are estimated using a mathematical model, based on observed rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations."
I personally don't trust the numbers coming out of anywhere. Including the US. The only way to know how many people have the Coronavirus would be if there was massive testing of anyone travelling from places where the outbreak is severe or who have symptoms and/or contacts. So we have no idea how many people have it. And we have no idea of how many people are dying from it (because are autopsies being performed on all who die from it? and even if so, is testing available?).
But South Korea, who has tested over 50,000 (the equivalent of 350,000 in the US) would be a place to start. And IMO would be a place to emulate as well.
The objective of identifying the virus in people is to reduce the number of contagious contacts thus slowing the spread of the disease. This could allow our hospitals to be able to treat all who are very sick. And it also allows for the development of a vaccine before the disease has spread to everyone in the US. There is probably no longer a way to stop the spread of the disease throughout our entire population.
Edit: At this point I am not going in to play tournaments (which means cash games as well). I just can't justify the possibility of bringing it home and having my wife potentially catch it. While I am somewhat at risk (I am 64 tomorrow) my wife has MS and other auto-immune issues. The death rate right now is just too much. To put it into perspective, when I was about 30 I got Hepatitis B. My doctor told me that I had about a 5% chance of dying from it. Since then I have taken precautions to keep my liver healthy including drinking a lot less than I used to... To me this is no different.
Last edited by Mr Rick; 03-11-2020 at 08:18 PM.