Also people have to remember that spread is not occuring as it was earlier due to the lockdowns, incubation period etc....testing was almost exclusively done by the swabs which were taking in some places including FL MANY days longer than promised. Very plausible that many of these cases you are seeing are involving patients who are close to being totally recovered by the time the get their actually results or very soon after. That's why hospitalization/death counts are far more important than total case numbers are. The delay in test results compound and allowblocal officials to continue to fear monger their people. Making bombastic remarks like needing to social distance until a vaccine etc etc is irresponsible and tyrannical. This needs to be taken on a bi-weekly basis, county/state level rather than making outlandish policy remarks based on no future facts either positive or negitive. Also have not seen state by state data of #recovered. How are they confirming this? People calling a hotline with their test number when no longer showing symptoms? For local leaders to be assuming the worst, months out is absurd.

Florida is gonna be the hotspot for Corona as residents will contract it at the beach and then infect their families! This is insane to open beaches and not expect congregation of people!

If you maintain even reasonable social distance a beach is a very unlikely place to catch this or most any virus.

Yup, people that are making a big deal about opening beaches make me laugh.

You should be more concerned about restaurants opening and when you go to touch the ketchup, salt, pepper, menu, etc. that multiple people already touched.

I think the issue is that people are not maintaining reasonable social distances ( at least not from some of the photos circulating, hard to know how typical those photos are, or how accurate)

The other issue with a beach, similar to a park, is that people walk in both directions. On the footage I saw, even people maintaining decent spacing with the people in front of them would get within a couple of feet of people passing them from the other direction.

And yes, the likelihood of catching COVID-19 from a single exposure at a beach is probably as low or lower than at a grocery store, but the concern is that, based on the crowds, you are have an order of magnitude or two more exposures.

In Dallas, they have gone to a system where the more popular walking trails can be used based on your last name. Half the week is for A-M, the other half for N-Z. Doubtful that they will actually be enforcing this, but hopefully it keeps people below crtical mass where scoial distancing becomes impossible.

There is a TIME component to the social distancing. The longer you are close and the closer you are the higher the risk. Walking past someone where you are 3’ from someone for 4 seconds is a minimal and probably infinitesimal increase in risk.

The reality is we absolutely must begin the process to restart the economy at some point. That should be beyond debate. Even most businesses that are open are seeing massive reductions in income with significant cost increases. And those are the lucky ones.

I am not saying we have Reopen now but we can’t wait six months either. It would be nice to say some businesses have to stay closed until a vaccine exists, lets say bowling alleys and golf courses. Which IMO are something that could easily reopen now with self imposed limitations. But if we maintain the must be closed for a year, you have effectively killed of those businesses. One might say that is ok it is only a bowling alley. But consider the ripples

Those employees are now unemployed. The local suppliers lost a customer. They may have to make corresponding cuts. We also have taken away a customer base for sporting goods retailers and manufacturers and distributors etc.

Every time you do this it is another series of small cuts. Pretty soon the economy dies from all the blood loss. Guess what people the govt cannot support the economy completely. They are not a good producer. The govt doesn’t generate income. They just pass it around. That is unless you want govt ownership of production which is the definition of communism. Even then those production facilities have to operate.

Weren't golf courses one of the few businesses that remained open? It makes sense as there seems to be very little risk

The impact of time on infection risk. The impact of additional time diminishes. The biggest risk will be in those first few seconds. I would wager that 20 4 scond encounters with randoms on the beach is more risky than 1 five minute encounter with a single random.

That being said, you are correct that the economy needs to restart. I have always had May 15th in mind for when most businesses could start reopening. But that is predicated on 5 things. 1) The infection rate and number of infecteds must be down. 2) Social distancing must still be enforced and must be second nature (this is what really concerned me about the beach photos). 3) Masks must be ubiquitous. 4) The summer must show an impact on decreasing the spread. and 5) we must be able to much more effectively test, contact trace, and quarantine. We won't know about #4 for awhile, and #5 will take longer. #1 is happening. And #2 and #3 was happening, though there may be some setbacks.

I expect retail stores, with limits on the number of people inside, restaurants, with fewer allowed tables, and personal service facilities (like gyms and salons) to open in May.

Casinos, amusement parks, concert venues, and beaches probably cannot open effectively until a vaccine exists.

#1 is not happening.

Or at best it could be happening but we would have no idea whatsoever.

There isn't sufficient testing right now to know the infection rate and the actual number of infected.

Once the testing ramps up (and it has remained fairly steady for the past two weeks) the number of infected should increase dramatically. But it will mean nothing. Just that we have a wider view of the general population.

My #1 would be opening up economies slowly once hospitalizations and deaths are both down for about a two week period. I would measure using 14 day rolling averages so individual day spikes or troughs won't be significant (i.e., sample size will be big enough).
Most at risk people (like myself and my wife) will only be shopping for necessities. Everything else I will get online.

I think most people won't eat at restaurants until a vaccine is here.

I heard Georgia is opening gyms and salons. LOL. Not sure what will happen. People going to those places or not very many people going.

But unlike Florida, Georgia is nowhere near bending the curve. Unless Atlanta is handled differently, Georgia will be in trouble soon.
I would add fan filled stadiums at sporting events, conventions, parades, outdoor markets, etc.

Sadly Casinos.

I just saw the mayor of Las Vegas interview with Anderson Cooper. OMG. She wants Vegas open now. What a wrong city to be Mayor of during a pandemic. The workers themselves would be massively exposed. Tourists going home would be spreading the virus. The scariest part of the interview was that she has no plan whatsoever to test for and trace infections. So tourists would never be advised that they had been exposed. Going to Vegas you would have to assume you would get the virus and have a plan in place for arriving back home with it.

I can't imagine older people (like myself) going to Vegas and seeing shows or going to restaurants. Even staying at hotels seems risky unless there is more knowledge about how this spreads. Can it be spread through central air conditioning? Anyway when asked about how casinos could be made safe with 6 feet distancing, the Mayor said "casinos are very clean. They will come up with a great plan to keep people safe." I guess I'm going to have to see the plan...

The Mayor also didn't rule out stadiums filled with fans and conventions coming back to Vegas (before a vaccine is available).

Until I saw the video I thought there was a chance I would go to Vegas for the WSOP if it was held in the Fall. Now I don't think its even a remote possibility. But if they open Vegas soon I will be watching.

If it were up to me about re-opening an economy in any locale (once the curve had been bent and on the downswing for about 2 weeks), I would start by allowing all businesses to open with employees and customers under 50 only and social distancing in place. Everyone else would have to work from home and order in. And people under 50 who were at risk I would encourage to stay home as well. If the hospitals remain viable then we could go from there. If not, we would have to try again after another shutdown. So basically the low risk population could choose whether or not to put themselves at risk. Also as mentioned I would have testing and tracing plans in place so people who got infected could be quarantined.

I think we also have to be careful about vacation destinations like Vegas, beach towns, etc. because unless we can test all people coming off of planes from those vacation destinations, we are asking for trouble...

@Spewing...if the single five minute exposure was with someone infected, actively shedding, within four feet in an enclosed space the odds of you being infected are very high.

Even assuming 25% of those random people you walk past were infected and shedding, out in the open, passing four feet away for a few seconds out in the open, I must believe is much less risk. Now if they all coughed on you as you passed it might be different. But the virus is not sitting in someone’s nose actively anticipating the opportunity to leap onto to someone passing by.

I am not a infectious disease specialist. But my college training many years ago did cover some of the tools that would be used. There is a reason the exposure risk guideline contain a exposure time factor.

I am not saying you cannot be infected in a few seconds but the likelihood is ve4y low assuming no physical contact.

I also saw the Mayor of Las Vegas on TV, and that interview pretty much left me thinking there’s no way I go there again before a vaccine. And I’ve gone every June for years.

!!!???!!!??? https://www.wlky.com/article/uofl-be...roval/32240538

Why do i keep visualizing the beginning of 'I am Legend'?

Apparently it won't be used as a prophylactic which is a bummer, that article leads to believe it would have been. From another article.


https://www.wsmv.com/news/drug-disco...e58508d69.html
"“They could get this early to kind of stop the virus from spreading in their bodies and that would stop them hopefully from getting seriously ill from this but also for people who have already gotten seriously ill, there are some evidence to believe that if you can kind of reduce the amount of virus in the body, reduce the spread further, you might be able to benefit them.”

The article specifically states that it would not be used for prophylaxis

"She also says it would be for people positive for the virus rather than a preventative drug."

And the quote you referenced states that it would be effective if used early in the infection, but does not state that it would be appropriate as a preventative. For prophylaxis, you would have to be taking the drug for as long as you were exposed. I would have serious concerns about taking a drug that is still in clinical trials long term.

Really interesting reading the beginning of this thread. I think what I've learned from this is if (when?) there's another virus spreading, when you start getting even just a couple of native cases where the people infected didn't travel to an infected country or come into contact with someone that did, it's time to take it very seriously and it's probably way more prolific than people think.

Mod: uh, no, anti vax posting is not acceptable here in CCP. We are being looser on content moderation at the moment, but there are still limits and rules. Thanks.

yea i hate golf but see no reason why golf courses wouldn't be one of the safer things to reopen

The mayor doesn’t have any control over the decision over when to open the city. That’s why she was making a lot of noise. She wants the city opened up but she can’t do it. The governor is taking a much more cautious approach.

Look at what the governor is saying. Casinos won’t be opening up for a while.

Some good news https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...36FCED81E5B337

You know what is crazy. It is 7 weeks, and over 65K deaths since this was posted, and people are still
1. Insisting this is hype
2. Insisting that their rights to go out exceed everyone elses rigths to not catch a virus
3. Insisting that they won't be affected, that the mortality of this virus is equal to the flu, that they are young and strong and therefore immune

People are dumb.

The biggest problem is the high number of asymptomatic spreaders. They feel good and they are around others who feel good. They don't know anybody who has had Covid. This gives them a false sense of security. All it takes is for one person in a group of anti social distancers to get it for it to become a big problem very quickly. The risk of death is minimal for younger healthy people. The risk of viral spread is for real.

I wouldn't say I'm immune. I would say the odds of me dying if I contracted the virus are infinitesimally small. It's not something I'm concerned about on a personal level.

So, you've figured out a way to get it but not be a possible source of infection? Please elaborate, this could be important information?

Yeah dude. That's the problem.