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Originally Posted by Eponymous
Is it accelerating? It looks like the daily new cases are increasing but at a slower rate of increase, which (fingers crossed) would indicate that it’s approaching the peak of the hump if the trend continues.
In NY State it looks like new cases are not accelerating. Maybe 3 or 4 days ago the rate of new cases was doubling every 2 days or so. Now it is doubling every 6 days. This according to our governor who has been bluntly honest IMO.
And in NY State they are testing like 10,000 a day. Maybe more now.
However, they are still not testing everyone with symptoms. Only those who are at risk (older and/or with respiratory complications) and health care workers. Hopefully that will change if the curve is broken.
The problem is that NY is probably way ahead of the rest of the country in terms of testing and also in terms of shutting down non essential businesses. Governor Cuomo has called us the canary in the coal mine.
Florida apparently just shut down the southern part of the state. And some beaches are still open. And ironically they are asking people coming into the state from NY, NJ, CT, etc. to self quarantine for 14 days. This after letting people party on the beaches for spring break and then disperse across the country.
I would keep in mind that when "total cases" for the US is posted (or for any country really other than South Korea) we have to take it with a grain of salt. Testing is not yet extensive enough that we can tell reliably whether or not the numbers are meaningful.
When Dr. Fauci says we can expect between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths in the US, I am fairly certain that the actual number of coronavirus cases is currently way more than 200,000.
And I also think that there are many people who may have already had it and are fully recovered right now that we don't know about. My 92 year old mother, living in NYC, had pneumonia in February but was not hospitalized. She recovered with antibiotic treatment and is now self isolating in her apartment. It is entirely possible that she had the coronavirus.
In any event, I think the likelihood that casinos re-open soon is slim. I can't imagine Nevada casinos opening in time for the WSOP. It would be catastrophic in terms of spreading the coronavirus throughout the US. I mean people would have to go to Nevada, quarantine themselves for 14 days. Then play in tournaments. Then either quarantine themselves again for 14 days (if they have families) or go home and quarantine for 14 days. And we are talking about a population, some non-zero percentage of whom don't wash their hands when leaving the bathroom.
Needless to say I am hoping to go to Las Vegas for the WSOP. Like most older degenerates who like to gamble, I see getting and dying from the coronavirus as a long shot anyway (a one outer so to speak).