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Originally Posted by SpewingIsMyMove
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That being said, you are correct that the economy needs to restart. I have always had May 15th in mind for when most businesses could start reopening. But that is predicated on 5 things. 1) The infection rate and number of infecteds must be down. 2) Social distancing must still be enforced and must be second nature (this is what really concerned me about the beach photos). 3) Masks must be ubiquitous. 4) The summer must show an impact on decreasing the spread. and 5) we must be able to much more effectively test, contact trace, and quarantine. We won't know about #4 for awhile, and #5 will take longer. #1 is happening. And #2 and #3 was happening, though there may be some setbacks.
#1 is not happening.
Or at best it could be happening but we would have no idea whatsoever.
There isn't sufficient testing right now to know the infection rate and the actual number of infected.
Once the testing ramps up (and it has remained fairly steady for the past two weeks) the number of infected should increase dramatically. But it will mean nothing. Just that we have a wider view of the general population.
My #1 would be opening up economies slowly once hospitalizations and deaths are both down for about a two week period. I would measure using 14 day rolling averages so individual day spikes or troughs won't be significant (i.e., sample size will be big enough).
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I expect retail stores, with limits on the number of people inside, restaurants, with fewer allowed tables, and personal service facilities (like gyms and salons) to open in May.
Most at risk people (like myself and my wife) will only be shopping for necessities. Everything else I will get online.
I think most people won't eat at restaurants until a vaccine is here.
I heard Georgia is opening gyms and salons. LOL. Not sure what will happen. People going to those places or not very many people going.
But unlike Florida, Georgia is nowhere near bending the curve. Unless Atlanta is handled differently, Georgia will be in trouble soon.
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Casinos, amusement parks, concert venues, and beaches probably cannot open effectively until a vaccine exists.
I would add fan filled stadiums at sporting events, conventions, parades, outdoor markets, etc.
Sadly Casinos.
I just saw the mayor of Las Vegas interview with Anderson Cooper. OMG. She wants Vegas open now. What a wrong city to be Mayor of during a pandemic. The workers themselves would be massively exposed. Tourists going home would be spreading the virus. The scariest part of the interview was that she has no plan whatsoever to test for and trace infections. So tourists would never be advised that they had been exposed. Going to Vegas you would have to assume you would get the virus and have a plan in place for arriving back home with it.
I can't imagine older people (like myself) going to Vegas and seeing shows or going to restaurants. Even staying at hotels seems risky unless there is more knowledge about how this spreads. Can it be spread through central air conditioning? Anyway when asked about how casinos could be made safe with 6 feet distancing, the Mayor said "casinos are very clean. They will come up with a great plan to keep people safe." I guess I'm going to have to see the plan...
The Mayor also didn't rule out stadiums filled with fans and conventions coming back to Vegas (before a vaccine is available).
Until I saw the video I thought there was a chance I would go to Vegas for the WSOP if it was held in the Fall. Now I don't think its even a remote possibility. But if they open Vegas soon I will be watching.
If it were up to me about re-opening an economy in any locale (once the curve had been bent and on the downswing for about 2 weeks), I would start by allowing all businesses to open with employees and customers under 50 only and social distancing in place. Everyone else would have to work from home and order in. And people under 50 who were at risk I would encourage to stay home as well. If the hospitals remain viable then we could go from there. If not, we would have to try again after another shutdown. So basically the low risk population could choose whether or not to put themselves at risk. Also as mentioned I would have testing and tracing plans in place so people who got infected could be quarantined.
I think we also have to be careful about vacation destinations like Vegas, beach towns, etc. because unless we can test all people coming off of planes from those vacation destinations, we are asking for trouble...