I thought I'd create this thread in general to talk about how promotions affect your expected value. There could be multiple ways, some obvious, some subtle!

I also thought it would be a good place to talk about a simple formula you can use to calculate the extra value high hand and hot seat promotions offer players.

This formula makes some assumptions. One of them is everyone in the room has the same probability of winning. This is true with hotseat promotions but less so with High Hand promotions.

Bonus hourly EV= (1/occupants of room eligible to win)* Hourly win amount

Let's look at the EV formula:

EV= (Probability of win * Win amount) - (Probability of loss * Loss amount)

So you might look at this and see some trouble we might have when applying it directly to calculating the EV from a promotion. How do we calculate our loss amount? There is a cost to playing the game right? Lots of people have brought this up in initial discussions.

YES! (and No)

If we were trying to calculate the expected value of the game you are playing, yes we would need to know your winrate, rake, tipping etc. But...

We are calculating the extra value a promotion offers, not the overall expected value of your game. Think about the formula above as it applies to your favorite high hand or hot seat promotion. How much do you stand win per hour just from the promotion? $50, 1K? Cool, throw it in the formula. Now, how much do you stand to lose per hour just from the promotion? Does the room charge extra when the promotion win is available? If not (thats the case so far as I've heard), then the number is 0. 0*anything=0, so the EV formula is shortened to Probability of win* amount of win. ITS GRAVY BABY!

"It's not gravy baby! I'm still paying extra rake you dumb jerk!"

Ok, it's not gravy. You are paying for the promotion with the jackpot drop. You and every other player are. The more you play during non promotion times, the more you contribute relative to someone only playing during promotion times. Its true.

But this doesn't mean the simple formula is broken, it just means you can only use it to answer certain questions.

Questions it can answer or decisions it can inform:
1. Relative to the same game played off-promotion, how much extra value will I earn per hour? So should I play today (off-promotion) or tomorrow (on promotion)? How much more is it worth to play tomorrow instead of today?
2. Should I go play this game or choose another fixed earn rate opportunity (if you have estimated winrates for game).
3. Should I play this game or another game (only if you have independent win rates estimated for each game)

Questions it does not answer or inform:
1. Should I play a high rake game with promotion instead of a low rake game without? (without winrates estimated)
2. Should I go play promotion A or promotion B (without winrates estimated in both games)
3. Should I fold middle pair OTB in a 3-way pot as the PFR when I'm donked into by the UTG limper on K72r flop.

Please post comments and questions! I'm going to start keeping track of the rake I pay to help increase the comparative power of this formula between games. I'd love to hear what you all pay hourly for rake!

Bummer, can't edit posts after 30 minutes.

Foxwoods Monday Madness runs once a month, pays $1,000 2x an hour and $500 2x an hour. Thats 3k an hour! However, this promotion is VERY popular and I've heard about the room filling? Thats crazy considering the size of the room. More players hurts your chance of hitting and thus reduces the extra expected value the promotion offers.



Their weekly Tu, Fr, Sa promotion is lower at 1k/hour, though I imagine there are far fewer participants

MGM Springfield is currently running a hotseat promotion. One random seat is selected for big prize (500 on Fri/Sat, 300 on Wed/Thu) and the REST of the table gets the small prize (250 on Fri/Sat, 150 on Wed/Thu). That averages out to $2750 per hour on Fri/Sat and $1650 per hour on Wed/Thu.

Couple interesting things. 1) It's a small room, maxing out at 23 tables. V good for your chances of winning 2) Drawings occur once an hour, where you have to be at the table. This leads to some losing players trying to game the system by standing up often. Floors notice this and can aggressively police walkers during promotion, especially if there is a list.

Golden Nugget in Las Vegas, the rake and the promotional drop are the same whether there is a special promotion (splash pots for Monday night football TDs/FGs/safeties) like last year, or not (like this year).

They have a high hand bonus that doubles during certain hours but the promo drop doesn't vary.

The bonuses for quads and straight flushes are progressive but the promo drop is always the same.

IMO if we play "normally" and "just play" without regard to the relatively modest promo money, we have (on a "per hand" basis") the same probability as anyone else in the room to hit one of the bonuses.

IMO only the winners of pots pay the promo drop in actuality, since if we don't win a pot there is no direct consequence on the size of our stack being a buck more (if there were no promo drop). So players who "play right" get the benefit of everyone else's VPIP, usually more than our VPIP.

Some random thoughts.

Regarding whether or not to play "promo hours" (like if you had to be there after midnight or whatever) to me it's not worth changing life style or leaving honey "home alone" just because of promo hours. The EV isn't much, the chance of hitting is random, and although I have hit many Golden Nugget promos, "it's just gravy".

Agree! But.... wifey does have a grasp of ev and these numbers can help tip the balance.

Mmmm gravy.

Interesting notes and great points. Loose players are definitely paying more then their fair share towards BBJ. Thank you loose players.

Splash pot promotions are interesting. You could start by assuming 1/10 equity of splashes, but honestly I think play style may factor more in here. Like, players cognizant of the value splashes offer will make the correct bet sizing and players who don't will make bet sizing errors. Opponent errors are profit for us right? I've only played splashed pots at the Golden Nugget in AC, and IIRC the players will still making standard PFR or limping.

True that.

With modest effective stacks, a large enough splash pot, and nitty enough opponents, it is mathematically right to open for a pot-sized bet, or even shove, ATC - or raise a similar amount - under many circumstances.

Fold equity is really your friend in such situations.