sure my point was simply plo games that aren't basically preflop all in fests are way better than the ones that are.

if i could set up shop and deal baccarat all day i would happily.

That's what I'm afraid of. It's probably impossible to predict if younger generations are going to get into poker or not. It would suck for me to be 50 years old with no game left to play.

I'm thinking there's a chance Vegas, LA, and maybe a couple other cities will always have atleast 2/5 going for the next 40 years or so. I mean, technicially, all you need is just one table running throughout the day and night for the game to stay alive. There should be enough gambling addicts and break evenish regs in a major city for that to happen, to still make the game beatable for a pro.

Lets hope ESPN still covers the WSOP ME every year...

FYP.

From the perspective of the western world or in western countries; the us and the european union that maybe true.

But in Asia i see it picking up. I live in a (caribbean) country heavily influenced by China.
Rich, middle class or poor, all layers of the chinese gamble. As their economy and disposable income grows so will their gambling habbits. Also the chinese population from china itself has stagnated in growth but the chinese population outside of china is still growing rapidly. And seeing that china is rapidly expanding its hold on nations like my own, gambling will follow where they go.

Annual inflation over the last 40 years was roughly 3.5% on average. So a 2/5 game in 40 years might be close to $0.5/$1.25 game today. With a max rake of $20-30 because that will be adjusted for inflation.

FRP... Good point on Euro/US view vs Asia.

China and India (as examples) are both huge markets where poker is still emerging. For different reasons both cultures are also well suited for poker to grow in popularity.



Fixed both your posts...

They have the advantage of market share leader peddling the only recreational drug that is legal worldwide. Its quite addictive.

attempting to make plans 40 years down the road is idiotic, the world will be nothing like it is today

the gambling will still be around, if humans are around

Not disproportionately risky, though.

The riskiest part isn't poker related. It's the fact that you are self employed. If you are a lazy turd, you're going to fail whether you're in poker or fitness training or management consulting. If you're a workaholic cheapskate, you can grind 3500 hours a year at +3 bb/hr 1/2 NL and still float.

The general rule is that people get compensated on rarity. If it were easy to make $100,000/year with no training, no skill, and no work ethic, it would get flooded until the compensation dropped. Think website design in the late 90s or real estate agent in the early 00s or social media consultant in the early 10s. If you are willing to take non-monetary compensation (e.g., stock equity or no benefits), the compensation can be greater than the immediate cash value - because most people have living expenses, it's rare to find aomeone who will work for stock options only.

If you dominate in your field, you'll get paid well, even if the field is in decline or tough. Although "chess pro" is a really bad career choice for most people, grandmasters can make a pretty good living. Top fashion designers probably get compensated 100x the median fashion designer.

All this to say that what you want out of being a poker pro is the main question. If you're lazy and just want to drop by and play a little mediocre 1/2 between porn viewing sessions, you're going to find "poker pro" to be tough. You're going to have to find some kind of rarity to make it work - ability to live in your parents' basement rent free, or being married to someone who can get you health insurance, or whatever. If you want to make $100,000, you have to have skills proportionate in rarity to a median biomedical engineer or a top Viagra salesman.

While your correction may actually be future reality, the actual line from the movie (Demolition Man) is "In the future, all restaurants are Taco Bell"

oh I was oblivious to the movie reference.

well played

As long as you know how the three seashells work..

I’ve been playing plo for 8ish years live. It is not going to suddenly overtake share of nlhe. I don’t think it’s even gaining share except for in a couple places like Maryland/Penselvania, Florida, Texas and Indiana/Ohio. In Vegas and la it’s impossible to find a game of meaningful stakes/action consistently. The 2-5-10 rock at aria and commerce play smaller then 1-2 plo games elsewhere so not promising for those areas.

90% of 1-2 players don’t want to learn a new game and can’t afford/don’t want the losses of a game with higher variance and they’re not comfortable with so they’re just never going to switch to plo. A lot of the 2-5/5-10 crowd loses significantly more at first in plo so either will take forever to switch to plo or never will as they will prefer nlhe in the short term.

rly? seems hard to believe.

Damn, you're right, I actually remembered that wrong.

There's plenty of cities out there where the big games are all plo games. Here in western canada (3 cities of over 1 million people where this is true in each) games above 1/3 nl were pretty much dead until a recent resurgence, but 5/5 and above plo games have been running regularly for years. My main room has 8 tables, and every day 3 of those tables are PLO, and it's been that way for a few years.

A game like that is incredibly profitably if you know what you're doing and have an adequate bankroll.

Not as profitable as a game where the money goes in on the flop with one guy holding middle pair and another one the bottom end of a straight draw.

exactly

can confirm this was also my experience out west. the guys that had money would play PLO and then leave. when they sat in the NL games, it was mayhem. granted they were playing way lower but, gives an indication of the quality of the PLO games.

I've never seen a PLO game where the action is slow preflop and then suddenly you get this kind of action postflop. In general, if the action is slow preflop, the action will suck in general. But when all the pots are bloated up preflop, you can get in with the hands that make dominating draws and strong hands and opponents won't be able to let go of their much weaker hands that typically have much fewer outs than they think. Good PLO games are played deepstacked and uncapped, typically with any stack less than 200 bring-ins being a short stack. Thus even in these bloated pots, there is critical post-flop decisions, even if the SPR's are quite low.

Next oil boom expect to see the same thing. Three weeks on, one week in the city with cash to splash, young single guys making more money than they've ever dreamed of. Pure gambol. Games are struggling right now though.

strange to read that about PLO in US, in Europe in many casinos and pokerrooms I've visited there is already more PLO tables than NLHE ones - and Im not talking high stakes, but equivalents of 2/2 to 5/5 (PLO is usually played with even blinds here for simplicity).

Where is that? Not saying you're wrong but my experience is quite different. Playing across ~10 casinos in 4 countries (Germany, Czech, UK, Austria) one place in Austria actually had a PLO table and no NL table on that night I visited. It was primarily a tourney place though, and I suspect the tourney was NL too (didnt investigate) . All the other places either had only NL or more NL tables than PLO.

I’ve played in places in Europe that had more PLO than NLHE games, but that was 1:0 or 2:1 count and maybe once a 3:2 but the latter might have been a 2:2. More commonly, in those same rooms it was one game of NLHE and one PLO or two of each. So basically what you see in the US with NLHE and LHE in small rooms.

I am trying hard to remember ever seeing more than 3 PLO games in a room that didn’t have at least 5-10 NLHE tables. Pretty sure the ratio of PLO:NLHE is higher in Europe because there are way less NLHE tables than in the US, not because there is higher interest in PLO overall.

One important factor that makes PLO more attractive to play in lots of casinos in Europe is the high rake. If you play a 5/5 game at 5% with 20€ cap, you rely on a high number of pots going significantly over the 400€ threshold. 1000€+ pots are just way more common in PLO games. NLHE games where lots of players buy-in for the 200€ minimum are basically unbeatable with that rake.

Im from Poland, but live cashgames are illegal here, so most of my experience come from playing in Czech and Slovakian casinos (and underground games in Poland). My favourite casino near Poland, Olomouc, usually runs 3-4 NL tables and 5-6 PLO on the weekends. I also hear that there is a lot of PLO action in Rozvadov, though I've never been there, a bit too expensive for me.

And in an undergound club in my city (Warsaw) there is also way more PLO, they usually run 0-2 holdem tables and 2-4 PLO-based dealers choice tables.

Still, might be just that I happen to stumble upon such times/places, as I dont play in casinos all that much.