Hi

I am assuming that [mod: removed] the unemployment rate will stay at 20%. I think this is going to change the live games somehow and I will throw a few possibilities out there based on player type

Pro's;
all live pro's have lost their Job, they have no choice but to play online and study. they will get much better because they can play a years worth of hands in a couple of weeks.

Serious recs:
these guys are ok and put in a lot of volume but are somewhere between slightly loosing and slightly winning. I would say a lot of these guys have some sort of employment or income so only 1 in 5 will be made unemployed, but I would expect any of these players not working would spend more time grinding online and studying because it is there hobby and there's nothing else to do, so 20% of these players will improve.

Spewy recs; these guys don't play that often and they have never worked on their game so I doubt anything will change here.

So who are the winners here?
I think the winners will be the live 1/2 2/5 pro's who through playing online have now realise how f**king bad they really are (me and my friends) and have nothing to do but work on their game. also the serious recs who have time.

and the losers?
I think the biggest losers will be the spewy recs who haven't improved but the game has gotten tougher.
I think the good pro's will also lose out (5/10 and above) these guy's were already at the peak of the S curve and there isn't much more they can learn to improve their win rate drastically, also at these stakes the table composition is made up of more Pro's and serious Recs who have improved, there aren't many spewy recs so the good pro is going to face tougher competion and he can't get better and move up because he was playing the biggest game in town.

I think that most people overestimate the degree live recs will improve. Many are distrustful (and rightfully so) of live poker and simply won't play while casinos are closed. If they do play many won't study regardless of their results. They're generally losing players live, online won't be much different other than the speed of which they lose. They play poker for fun; studying is work. If it becomes work they won't play. Live low-stakes regs will likely improve due to playing online. Whether they make any money is a different story.

I'm not sure what you mean in 'standard'?

It's going to take a tremendous amount of commitment from a casino to re-open a small (even medium) poker room once they get the green light to do anything.

Lots of Players will be apprehensive to come out at all without a much clearer scope of CV19. I guess I'll suggest that the more successful/skilled a Player 'thought they were' will influence them to come out sooner. That doesn't necessarily mean games will be better/worse or tighter/looser. The issue I see in low numbers is the lack of variety on the social side that lots of Recs look for. The last thing they want to see is the room shark(s) at the only table open 'every' day.

Our state is getting online poker 'soon' and that will have an effect depending on the 'status' of CV19. IMO Players will come out less often once online play begins, but will probably return more often once they find out that online is pretty tough going ... especially if those sharks can now multi-table. So even if a room can get going in the short term there will be bumps along the way.

IMO a huge 'impression' key to live poker will be tournaments. If Players start to see/hear/read about tournaments that are up and running, even at lower numbers, then that will generate the 'green light' to return to the room. GL

This thread is more about different player types improving from playing online during lockdown and will that effect the profitability of live games in the long term when the virus is a minimal threat. It’s less about the short term reopening or who will risk coming to the casino while the virus is still a threat.

1) I think all Player types 'could' (and should) get better by being forced to step away from the live game IF they choose to play online/App.

2) I think the better Players will be that much better, but the marginal Players will have a hard time applying what they've seen/learned while online and fall back into their normal games.

3) I think in the short term, only those Players who are serious about playing poker, regardless of skill level, who more than likely are the same Players who have also played/learned online during the lockdown, are the ones who will first return to the live scene .. which will correlate to much tougher/tighter games initially.

4) If #3 comes true, then I think it will take that much longer to get the 'social rec' back at the table 'full time' since the competition will be that much more capable and ready to pounce on these others when they choose to return.

5) 'Serious' Players (those who play a lot of hands), which does encompass all skill levels, will find a way to play right now. By default, those Players will improve at their 'going rate' of improvement ... some faster/better than others as stated above. This will create an even bigger gap in skill level when games start back up ... which will probably cause the games to be that much tougher to win at.

I guess in general your query is an 'of course' query ... Of course any Player (of any skill level) who plays online should improve. Which in turn 'should' make any live game tougher once they open back up. And this improvement should give them an edge over any Player who never played (or thought) about poker AND make it tougher for 'better' players to get chips from them.

My sub-point is that even though those that played did improve you still have to get them into the poker room ... and the mix of 'all' Players who are willing to come in the room will determine if the games are tougher or not in the short term.

I am bantering on here ... but it really comes back to the basics of table selection poker. If you can't tell who the fish is, then you are the fish!

So if 'only' online Players end up in the live games, then even though a marginal Player did improve they still fell further behind the better Players, and thus will lose 'more' than before (even though they got 'better').

BUT, if you can convince the non-online Players to also return to the table, then those who did play should feast (in the short term) on those Players ... which in turn makes the games easier to win!!

I'm not trying to minimize your query, I'm just delving (probably too deeply) into the various factors that may affect the live games once they get going. GL

First off it's always refreshing to have a second account to troll thread start.

Second, LOL at 1 year lockdown.

Thirdly, LOL at live "pros" getting better online...

some live pros will probably get better

a lot will be going broke

I agree with most of this, I thought about it a bit more today and I think all player types will improve some more than others, It will reduce the profitability of the game if you put no work into your game in the lockdown period.

The interesting point is if you are very high up the S curve of learning already (absolute crusher) because you gains of study per hour won't increase your win rate as much as the weaker players because you already capture most of the win rate possible (most of the win rate comes from the basic stuff like preflop, c-betting and HU pots IP), but if you stick a break even player in a room studying and seeing lots of hands he will shoot up the S curve and gain much more for this period. now if that crusher was an online player he would be able to benefit from moving up in stakes to make more money but as he is a live player he already plays the biggest games and there is nowhere for him to go except maybe learning a new game but that won't increase his hourly much.

I also think its possible a rec can study and get better if they have been made unemployed but when he starts going back to work and playing live once a week he will lose his skills quickly. and on a side note the economy is going to be appalling for the next few years reducing the money people have to gamble

Basically I recon whatever win rate you had before covid if you don't play any poker and study over the next year you will lose a big chunk of it, but if you do play and study you should be all good unless your a crusher who will lose a small fraction.