Quote:
Originally Posted by dinesh
...And this assumes there are only 2 drawings. If there are more, the probability of any table hitting twice in a row at some point in the day is even more probable.
Yes, this is key and often overlooked when people imagine the odds against something happening several times in a row..
Assuming there are 20 tables, the chance of the first drawing hitting one of them = 100% = 1. Then the chance of the next drawing hitting the same table would be 1/20 = .05 = 5%.
BUT if there are multiple drawings/ day,
then each new drawing starts a new sequence, so the probability of 2 in a row in the day starts to go up exponentially. If there are always 20 eligible tables, and 13 hourly drawings from 10:15 AM to 10:15 PM (I don't know this to be true, just assuming for discussion), then there would be 13 sequences of 2 drawings per day (if we consider carrying over sequences to the next day). Then the chance of at least one of them resulting in 2-in-a row would be 1 - (.95 to the 13th) = 1 - .513 = .487 = 49% (or almost 50/50 on any given day).
By the same math, 3-in-a-row would be about 3.2%, or about 31/1 on any given day. Not too likely, but not 8000 to 1, either.
Probabilities can be very counter-intuitive.
I wouldn't worry too much about the RNG...…..