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Originally Posted by Suit
I don’t think this will be the case at all. At some point the people making these decisions will figure out there’s no stopping this and all we can do is slow it down and deal with it. At that point things are going to have to go back to normal. The longer they wait, the more the world will suffer from an economy on a death spiral. At most, we may see a (pointless) country wide lockdown for a couple weeks and then things will start going back to normal. This thing is just like the flu, infecting almost everyone that comes in contact with it. It’s been here for several months already and we are just now starting to test for it at a minimal rate. My county has tested a total of 85 people as of yesterday. 85!!! I think 3 positives out of those. If it’s here, it’s everywhere. When they allow casinos to reopen it will be business as usual IMO. I’d be shocked if there was a social distancing mandated. No way of knowing now, but my guess is we will be cards in the air by middle or end of April at the latest.
This virus is very different from the flu. It has a much higher morbidity than the flu. The mortality we don’t and can’t know yet. It has an incredibly skewed chi distribution in HOW it impacts people based on age much different than the flu.
You are correct we cannot stop it. Yes we are trying to slow it down. That is exactly the goal of flattening the curve. If you slow it down the medical system doesn’t get overwhelmed. So those who require intensive medical intervention can receive it.
Also compared to the flu, this virus is not mutating much. Not only does that indicate a vaccine may be a long lasting one but also once exposed your natural immunity may also be long lasting
As far as testing you are correct, we did not get ahead of this and we are not yet where we should and need to be but we are rapidly getting there. We are also going to find a treatment. What it will be we don’t know but what it will be.
Will we be out by Easter? Maybe in some select places but not the whole country We can’t keep the whole country on lock down for a year.