This article was in the November issue of the Two Plus Two Internet Magazine. Since it's three months old, it has been taken down from the website. But, I thought the article, especially the charts, would be useful to reference.



The Status of Las Vegas Hold ‘em

Five years after the poker boom hit Las Vegas, the landscape of card rooms continues to evolve. Back then, limit hold ‘em dominated the Strip with seven card stud experiencing a long and steady decline. Today, stud is almost entirely gone and limit hold ‘em is a clear second choice to the no-limit game.

In the early to mid-afternoon hours of Saturday June 28 and Saturday, October 25, I surveyed 19 of the 23 poker rooms on the Las Vegas Strip, all but those at Circus Circus, Riviera, Sahara, and Stratosphere. At small and medium stakes (anything at or below 10-20 no-limit and 40-80 limit) the no-limit games outnumbered the limit games more than 2.6:1. That doesn’t include any tournaments tables which were very large in numbers at many rooms while the WSOP was in progress in June.

Limit Hold ‘em: At, Beyond, or Approaching a Tipping Point?

The greater than 2.6:1 advantage no-limit has isn’t telling the whole story. Limit hold ‘em has a growing problem beyond that. In 2003, all poker rooms had successful 3-6 or 4-8 limit hold ‘em games. Those were the smallest stakes you could play on the Strip. 6-12, 8-16, and 10-20 games were thriving at the Mirage and Bellagio. On a typical weekend, I expect you could find at least two of each game. Those small/medium stakes games provided a bridge and feeder system for the 15-30, 20-40, and 30-60 limit games which thrived then and continue to do reasonably well. Today, the small games have gotten even smaller while the feeder games are drying up.

This is what the limit action looked like during my surveys.

Saturday, June 28, 2008

2-4: Thirteen games at seven casinos.
3-6: Six games at three casinos
4-8: Seven game at four casinos

6-12: No games
8-16: One game at Bellagio
9-18: One game at Wynn
10-20: One game at Mirage

15-30: Three games at Bellagio
20-40: Three games at Mirage and Wynn
30:-60: Three games at Bellagio
40-80: No games

Saturday, October 25, 2008

2-4: Eight games at six casinos
3-6: Six games at three casinos
4-8: Nine games at three casinos

6-12: No games
8-16: One game at Bellagio
9-18: No games
10-20: Two games at Mirage and Wynn

15-30: Three games at Bellagio
20-40: No games
30:-60: Two games at Bellagio
40-80: No games

2-4, a game which wasn’t spread five years ago, has become the game of choice for small stakes players. They’re gravitating away from higher stakes games.

More importantly, the feeder games to medium stakes games are losing their player pool.

Back in late 2001 and early 2002, the 6-12 game at the Mirage was disproportionately tough compared to its stakes. On many days, I feel confident in saying it was tougher than the 10-20 or 20-40 games in the same room. Of course, it didn’t stay that way. The reason it was tough was because more than half a dozen of the regulars (including many 2+2ers) were cutting their teeth in the 6-12 game and would shortly be regulars in those bigger games. They had used the smaller game to hone their skills in advance of moving up in stakes.

Today, the 6-12 to 10-20 games are sparse and, based on observation alone, appear to be mostly filled with players content to stay where they are rather than move up.

With small stakes players moving down to 2-4 rather than moving up to the 6-12 to 10-20 limits, and the small population of 6-12 to 10-20 players showing no signs of jumping stakes, the long-term status of the medium stakes limit games in Las Vegas does not look healthy. For quite some time, the 20-40 game at the Mirage (and now the Wynn) has only run when Vegas has heavy poker traffic (weekends and during big tournaments). The 40-80 game which once ran at both the Mirage and Wynn has disappeared entirely. 15-30 and 30-60 are holding on, but show no signs of growth potential.

No limit hold ‘em: A Healthy Pyramid

No-limit games appear to have a very healthy feeder system to bigger games. Here’s what the action looked like.

Saturday, June 28, 2008

0-1: No games
.5-1: Two games
1-2: Forty-nine games
1-3: Twelve games

2-4: Two games
2-5: Twenty-one games

5-10: Ten games

10-20: Six games

Saturday, October 25, 2008

0-1: Two games
.5-1: Two games
1-2: Thirty-seven games
1-3: Ten games

2-4: No games
2-5: Twenty-four games

5-10: Seven games

10-20: Two games

I’m going to treat 0-1, .5-1, 1-2 and 1-3 as a single lowest level. 2-4 & 2-5 will be a secondary level. 5-10 and 10-20 are a third and fourth level.

So, on June 28, we have 61 games at the lowest level. 23, 10, and 6 games are at the next three highest levels. One October 25, those same levels have 51, 24, 7, and 2 games.

The surveys show essentially what a healthy feeder system should be. The lowest level has the most games. Any level has about 40% of the games of the level below it.

This pyramid like structure allows players to improve their games at one level and move up a small step in stakes when ready. As a result, the 5-10 and 10-20 no-limit games in Las Vegas appear to have a good future between those regularly playing today, tourists in town playing for a short time, and smaller stakes players who will join the games in the future.

Here are a couple charts showing where all games were spread during the surveys. The casinos highlighted in green are those that opened after 2003.

I should note that Caesars Palace’s low cash game total on June 28 is primarily due to a very large turnout for a tournament which occupied nearly every table in their room. Also, there were no cash games at the Rio’s Amazon room. It was standard for all cash games to be shut down on Saturdays in preparation for big weekend tournament turnouts.








Among non-hold ‘em games, only Omaha 8 or better shows any signs of long-term vitality on the Strip.

Nine non hold’ em games were running on June 28. Eight were running on October 25.

June 28, 2008

One 5-10 Omaha 8 or Better (Mirage)
One 10-20 Omaha 8 or Better (Wynn)
One 30-60 Omaha 8 or better (Bellagio)

Two 1-4 stud (Mirage)
One 20-40 stud (Bellagio)

One 5-5 Pot Limit Omaha (Wynn)

One 2-5 NLHE/PLO mix (MGM Grand)

One 8-16 mixed game (Venetian)


October 25, 2008

One 4-8 Omaha 8 or better (Venetian)
One 5-10 Omaha 8 or better (Mirage)
One 10-20 Omaha 8 or better (Wynn)
Two 30-60 Omaha 8 or better (Bellagio)

Thanks for posting it here Dynasty.

Will you be doing an updated version later this year?

I have to be in a walking mood to do it again. I check all the rooms by going there myself. So, the trip tends to be a walk from Bally's to Mandalay Bay to Wynn to Flamingo while stopping at everyplace in between.

Has anyone written on what is it about nlhe that makes so many bad players think they are good at it?

TV?

(Usually I don't leave short, one word posts, but this seemed obvious to me. Then again, maybe I'm way off.)

I wrote a 350 page book on this very subject, 349 of the pages are blank, the one word in the entire book is "Variance." Signed versions of this book are available at an additional cost.

fyp

I would have to triple the price of my book if I were to go into that much additional detail.

i could personally care less about limit

You could care less? As in you do care, but if you tried you could care less than you do? Or did you mean that you couldn't care less. As in, if you cared any less then you wouldn't care at all? Or as in its not possible to care less about something that you already don't care about at all?

Or were you just trying to make a post that was of no use whatsoever to anyone here? Like this one?

Here's a few more of mine:

1) irregardless
2) try and
3) continuing on

I think even if you primarily play nl, you should care somewhat about the health of lhe games.

I believe they contribute more rake to a rooms bottom line on a per table basis.

Also lhe is often the game of choice for locals (lv especially) and as Mason has wrote in many books, without locals in a room you have no room (or words to a similar effect).

Thanks for posting this Dynasty, it's very interesting.

I know this is beyond the scope of your survey, but I'd be curious about the age ranges of all game types and levels. For instance: Are the O8 and middle limit players similar in age demographics? I would imagine this would also change long-term viability of one vs. the other.

And a side note - where was the 0/1 NL game? I'm guessing Excalibur..wow that sounds small

2 simple reasons why i'm very curious about limit games...

1. the big fat pots i see in 10/20 or higher games.

2. developing ability to determine and use slim edges on the come,
while reading the other's draws and holdings, seems pretty damn
useful no matter what u play, and i imagine these skills are
crucial to successful mid/high stakes limit play.

Just as i expected to give away $$ when i started NLHE, i would expect
to do the same in a 4/8 limit. But if i'm as curious and willing to
stick in there as i was with NL, i would expect at the very least to sharpen these skills for the long term.

how is that not good? i started playing during the boom, i accept i
have benefited from that, but i'm always surprised when i talk to
other players, people who throw themselves into 2/5 or 5/10 NL games, about wanting to sit in limit games for the reasons above, and hearing them across the board pretty much discount anything but NL. probably it's a comfort zone for people. can't protect my hand bla bla bla.

the thing that keeps people like me from sitting at these games
is basic logistics-- i can only get to the casino so often, and
when i go i want to maximize my time with the game i a comfortable with. if i could go as much i like-- i would certainly look to other games.
but it would require a separate roll-- "a get cozy with limit" roll that i am willing to play with. which would only exist if, again, i am going enough to be comfortable with my presexisiting NL roll.

so- for curious non pro players like me, it's about wanting to maximize time at the room. in the long haul, i don't want the variety of games to disappear. it's simple-- if we all play the same damn game, it will be
harder to beat.

nice work on the surveys

submitted for your approval

6 is of course my fave

Preposterous.

Fewer and/or smaller rooms, sure, but no rooms?! All those tourist poker players coming in by car and airplane will just stop playing?

To use an extreme example, if Mason was right cruise ships would not have poker tables.

As a low limit player I find this to be really frustrating. I'll often go into one of the locals casinos, and it's common to see several 2-4 limit tables going, but either zero or just one 4-8 table going. People really love to play 2-4 limit.

That's the single blind game at Bill's Gamblin' Hall.

Sweet irony.

I didnt say no rooms, the plural was your addition.

I said without locals, you have no room. As with anything there will be exceptions, but I do believe on the whole or in the majority, rooms rely on their regulars.

And although a stretch of the imagination, people coming in by car and plane would not stop playing. However if their are no games they have no choice but not to play.

Dynasty,

I too would like to see a periodic update of this info. Maybe even twice a year. Most helpful would be one in May - right before all us loose playing tourists show up for WSOP.

We'll cut Mason some slack because he didn't know about the whole TV poker boom thingy.

If it wasn't for that one....

bad turn coming off...

bad move I LET myself make...

bad beat I took.....


Id be up or even right now.

(this is the answer I talk to a lot of degen poker players)

Dynasty: Excellent OP, any chance you can give an update, especially on the Omaha8 games. Thanks in advance!

Would love to know an updated status of the limit games. Going to Vegas in June.