HS player 140 bi below EV over the last 4 mo. Need some perspective
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 2,044
Title basically says it all. I play basically anything 5/10-200/400. Been doing this for over a decade and have done well. The last year, but particularly last 4 mo have been basically the limit that I can handle mentally. >140 buy ins under EV over the last 4 mo. I don't know how to continue doing this when I'm getting results like this. With the probability of some sort of collusion/RTA being >5% and the likelihood of a sub 1% run of cards being very high, continuing to pursue poker seems so bleak and mostly painful. I"m not sure what to do or what other areas I could possibly pursue as a job. I genuinely enjoy poker and like the strategy and competitive aspect of it but at this point I"d rather play chess bc if I lose I know it's within my control to fix. This **** I have limited control over. I continually focus on playing as well as I'm capable of and telling myself that I can not control the cards, but is this even statistically possible over 175k hands? The worst part of it all is that it's across at least 6 different sites so it's not like I can attribute it all to bot farming/RTA. Putting some rough estimates into variance calculators I"m running at a < 1/2500 run over 175k hands. It basically should not happen and yet here we are. I don't know how to process this. It's bleeding over into my personal life and relationships and causing me to play worse in the present.
Main responses I"m told are "take a break." Like ya i've tried that. What else?
Considering Elliot Roe mental game coaching bc I've heard good things but aside from that what else can I possibly do?
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 159
Ok so, possibly for the first time in your career, you've hit a patch of adversity you didn't expect to ever happen. It is happening. Why does it matter so much? I can infer a couple reasons why from your post:
1. You've lost a lot of money
2. You have no other income options
I would tackle those two first. Move down, preserve the bankroll, find other income options, devise a plan for the future.
Second, I notice some cheating speculation that while possible, is more likely due to a massive difference between your mental/emotional expectations and current reality. I would tackle your expectations next, and do some deep thinking and soul searching about why your expectations are so far from the reality you're currently experiencing. Because I can say pretty much without reservation that if it wasn't for the size of this gap, you wouldn't be making this post.
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 301
What you been playing lately? What is your standard deviation, expected winrate and observed winrate?
Join Date: Dec 2022
Posts: 573
My advice to you is to stop jerking off if you dont its only gonna get worse