Quote:
Originally Posted by Murdoc
And sites obviously have incentive to keep tabs on anyone playing high stakes in the casino and possibly manipulate them however they see fit to take the most $ from them long term. Can even let whales win huge amounts in the beginning to get them hooked, then when the switch is flipped, they'll still keep coming back to try to get that huge win again like the good ole days and eventually end up in a big hole long term, when if they just lost right off the bat they would have stopped playing and lost less $ to the site. Again if anyone thinks literally nothing of this sort is going on and all sites are just operating on the 'up and up' and not trying to maximize their profits i'd say they're incredibly naive.
See, the problem with this line of thinking, in addition to what VBAces said, is all of the other perspectives that it does not consider whether knowingly or not. Most such claims imply some tunnel-visioned approach to mysteriously maximise EV for companies - sort of what a regular poker enthusiast would do. A projection of regular poker enthusiast behaviour to a company that provides a service. One problem with this projection is that a business environment cannot be narrowed down to such simple perspective, there are too many variables in a business environment*. Another problem is that this projection completely misjudges what drives the value of the business, and therefore the value for shareholders which is the same to any business in any industry**.
What you described here and in your previous posts might not even be applicable to a student project operated from the basement where there is no accountability, no employment relationships adhering to applicable labour laws in a specific jurisdiction and all the other regulatory requirements or compliance requirements from business partners, let alone an international, multi-cultural, regulated business organizations. I'll explain expanding on what was mentioned above:
*Unlike regular poker enthusiasts, companies are not operated by a single individual. From companies like Zynga to a start up game studio, there are tens, hundreds or thousands of employees who touch organizational processes that affect customer experience when using a product: from entry level customer service agents, payments and risk specialists, anti-money laundering officers to engineers, data scientists, management teams, etc. See, companies hire and manage employees based on job/tasks descriptions, applicable labour laws in a particular jurisdiction and company's culture. Therefore, companies cannot really hire teams of people advertising that they will be building games but in reality will be asked to 'tweak' certified and authorized by regulatory bodies RNGs and or RTPs of slots. If what you implied were true, think of how many thousands of employees would know about 'rigged' algorithms and what leverage each would have against their peers, their team leads, their managers, their business unit heads, the board of directors. Now think how investors/shareholders would react if they found out about such 'business practices'. Spoiler alert: it would present them with an unacceptable risk and they would take their money to a different company or industry and literally no one would ever trust any company that hires management team who allowed or supported such 'business practices'.
**Also unlike regular poker enthusiasts, the book value or the bottom line of the business sometimes is completely irrelevant to the value of the business. Don't get me wrong, accounting-based performance measures, i.e. data found in financial statements, were used as a single performance measurement philosophy as recent as the 80's. For better or worse, we no longer live in the 80's and the modern performance measures includes intellectual capital measurement which in some cases can boost the value of the business much more than the bottom line would suggest. Amazon is a perfect example for this - 2021 reported earnings were just above 33 billion (~500B revenue), but market capitalization (the total market value of all shares) is over 1,5 trillion. Is that because Amazon knows how to 'tweak' sales prices so they maximize their bottom line or is it because Amazon has the intellectual capital to execute internal processes efficiently and with little waste, can adjust to ever changing regulations internationally, can market one of the most recognized brands on the planet, can reach extremely wide variety of customers which derisks cashflows, etc, etc, etc? This is especially true for smaller companies and start ups as they want to show that they can compete on a market but assets management and cashflows management are far more important than the bottom line at any given time measure.
Speaking of time, it is worth pointing out that the 'short-term' for companies is 1-5 years, depending on company's maturity, while for poker enthusiasts that is very subjective based on understanding of math and patience - could be 5 hands, could be 5000 hands, which further distances the perspectives and may lead to different expectations.