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Jackpot sng prize pool probabilities Jackpot sng prize pool probabilities

03-20-2020 , 04:25 AM
So after and extended break even stretch (overall, not just jackpot sngs) I decided to take some action. I up'd my study time and started 1 tabling so I could slow down and more thoroughly think through decisions.

Anyway, I found myself playing some jackpot sngs and keeping with the new (temporary) theme, started only playing 1 at a time instead of the usual 2. From what I understood, the probability of spinning something better than 2x is about 31%. When I played 2 at a time, this seemed about right. I never had long noticeable stretches without a 4x at least. Since I started spinning 1 at a time, I have gotten a 2x literally every single time. Admittedly I have not kept track of how many games it has been, but my honest guess is about 20 games. So I faded a 31% chance about 20 times in a row. Wow!

It just seems really odd that this was noticable after starting to register one game at a time.

I'm going to start a count from here on out of how many entries I can spin a 2x in a row. I'll report back to this thread when I hit a 4x or better.

I know you will all be on the edge of your seat waiting for an update!
03-20-2020 , 04:40 AM
UPDATE: Spun a 4x my first game back after this post!

Crazy. Even if I overestimated the streak at 20 games, it was at least 15 for sure. Seems borderline impossible to fade a 31% chance 15 times in a row. What is the math on that?
03-20-2020 , 06:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tapslem
UPDATE: Spun a 4x my first game back after this post!

Crazy. Even if I overestimated the streak at 20 games, it was at least 15 for sure. Seems borderline impossible to fade a 31% chance 15 times in a row. What is the math on that?
If you play 200 a day, a streak of 15 in a row - assuming a 69% probability of each one - is about 20%.
03-21-2020 , 10:56 AM
Likely just variance. They make enough money off the rake on this based on posted probabilities.

      
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