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Global poker variance Global poker variance

03-04-2023 , 08:03 PM
Oh boy this thread is back. I know when I run bad and get tilted it feels rigged, not just Global but anywhere including live. Definitely vented on here a few times when on tilt. Despite what I have said while on tilt, Global is definitely solid with no major issues, especially in terms of a "fair deal". When one puts in volume with multiple tables they will see quads at a table(as opposed to being dealt) pretty much daily and often many times a day...

Soft players result in more bad beats...

I cant complain. I deposited a total of $30 to Global and have built a decent bankroll and have withdrawn $1k...
03-04-2023 , 10:20 PM
It 100% could just be me and variance driving me crazy but like i said its the 5th time in a row when I make a significant cashout that ive went on bad runs. Since the 25th of February im -1600$ in EV thru 300 games or so.

Last edited by Sirbustalotz; 03-04-2023 at 10:48 PM.
03-04-2023 , 11:46 PM
https://play.globalpoker.com/hand/64...d24200011fef70

Could post about 30 of these hands or more thats happened in the last few days. But its probably MY play lol.
03-05-2023 , 10:24 AM
devastating losses in ur $5 mtts bro
03-05-2023 , 02:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kizzah
devastating losses in ur $5 mtts bro
rarely play MTT's you have any success in them?
03-05-2023 , 07:50 PM
First husng of the evening more standard variance or bad play by me.

https://play.globalpoker.com/hand/64...09710001985215
03-06-2023 , 02:39 AM
I understand there are downswings and times where you run bad but to prove it’s just variance you should also write down the times you win hands you shouldn’t. Like when your AQ beats AK. It’s impossible for your mind to remember when you get lucky because you aren’t focused on those pots. You only remember the bad beats. Basically every single time I make a final table there is at least 1 significant bad beat I put on someone leading up to the final table. Then when I bust at the final table with KK to AJ I get mad but have to remember that I shouldn’t even be at the final table in the first place if it weren’t for the bad beat I put on someone else. You have to remember both the good luck and the bad luck
03-06-2023 , 10:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tiger24
I understand there are downswings and times where you run bad but to prove it’s just variance you should also write down the times you win hands you shouldn’t. Like when your AQ beats AK. It’s impossible for your mind to remember when you get lucky because you aren’t focused on those pots. You only remember the bad beats. Basically every single time I make a final table there is at least 1 significant bad beat I put on someone leading up to the final table. Then when I bust at the final table with KK to AJ I get mad but have to remember that I shouldn’t even be at the final table in the first place if it weren’t for the bad beat I put on someone else. You have to remember both the good luck and the bad luck
Believe me I’d love to post some hands where i suck out.
03-06-2023 , 04:55 PM
I had a streak where I lost around 10 HUs games in a row and was probably 5 for 50 games.

Bad beat after bad beat after bad beat with a cooler here and there. One guy got quads in 2 games in a row to beat me.

It certainly felt rigged and I was most definitely on tilt.

I know it sounds stupid, but the more you are convinced its rigged, and the more you are convinced the villain will suck out the more it happens. I know how difficult it is to get out of that mentality, but you must in order to win again.

After my latest downswing/tilt spew I ended up watching some "poker advice/training" YouTube vids, some about dealing with downswings. Someone(Bart maybe) mentioned that when you win with AA vs JJ you are actually beating EV has your "share" is only ~80% and you won 100%. Just being reminded of this helped me mentally for some reason.
03-06-2023 , 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jr0d
I had a streak where I lost around 10 HUs games in a row and was probably 5 for 50 games.

Bad beat after bad beat after bad beat with a cooler here and there. One guy got quads in 2 games in a row to beat me.

It certainly felt rigged and I was most definitely on tilt.

I know it sounds stupid, but the more you are convinced its rigged, and the more you are convinced the villain will suck out the more it happens. I know how difficult it is to get out of that mentality, but you must in order to win again.

After my latest downswing/tilt spew I ended up watching some "poker advice/training" YouTube vids, some about dealing with downswings. Someone(Bart maybe) mentioned that when you win with AA vs JJ you are actually beating EV has your "share" is only ~80% and you won 100%. Just being reminded of this helped me mentally for some reason.
I sure hope your right been playing online since 2003 just never experienced it directly after cashouts like I have on global. The thing that I fear is that they are using something very similar to what ea sports and other major video games have implemented when you guys get a chance lookup Dynamic Difficulty Adjustment patent.
03-06-2023 , 07:50 PM
This should be a non issue in SnGs...assuming the dynamic difficulty adjustment exists.

I can see how it could be used in seating players for tournaments.

Do you use sharksscope to check on your villains stats?
03-06-2023 , 08:28 PM
If you read the entire patent you can see its not just for "seating" players it also effects how the game is played and makes it easier for the "inferior" opponent. Im not saying global does this or any other site but its scary to think if they wanted to do it they could. For instance in madden with it enabled the better player will fumble more often drop passes etc.
03-06-2023 , 09:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tiger24
I understand there are downswings and times where you run bad but to prove it’s just variance you should also write down the times you win hands you shouldn’t. Like when your AQ beats AK. It’s impossible for your mind to remember when you get lucky because you aren’t focused on those pots. You only remember the bad beats. Basically every single time I make a final table there is at least 1 significant bad beat I put on someone leading up to the final table. Then when I bust at the final table with KK to AJ I get mad but have to remember that I shouldn’t even be at the final table in the first place if it weren’t for the bad beat I put on someone else. You have to remember both the good luck and the bad luck
This methodology would be an improvement, but would still be completely insufficient in proving anything.
03-06-2023 , 10:55 PM
One thing I will say to be fair is the structure is faster on global and rake is higher then the other sites ive played on in the past and this will have an impact on variance.
03-07-2023 , 12:07 AM
So heres todays goodies day 9 of downswing since cashout.

https://play.globalpoker.com/hand/64...654f0001596ba2

https://play.globalpoker.com/hand/64...09710001985a3a

https://play.globalpoker.com/hand/64...09710001985a67

https://play.globalpoker.com/hand/64...09710001985a00

https://play.globalpoker.com/hand/64...097100019859b3

https://play.globalpoker.com/hand/64...09710001985970


This one below i dont consider a terrible beat just funny how the a10 beat the ak too so i thought id post it.

https://play.globalpoker.com/hand/64...09710001985b48


Also waited all day to post a hand where I sucked out so I could show im not just showing the bad beats here ya go below.

https://play.globalpoker.com/hand/64...654f0001596b72

Im also conducting an experiment since I got the debit card from global I can cashout directly every night and have been doing so for the past 5 days to see how this effects variance so far its working exactly as I thought it would very bad EV everyday after cashout but if I continue to do this for a month and it continues like this when you compare my graph before I did this then it will 100% prove cashouts on global have some effect on winnings.

Also heres my updated graph since the day I cashed out. 1600$ under EV during this stretch or 59 buyins.

https://www.sharkscope.com/#Player-S...600~2151550799
03-07-2023 , 12:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirbustalotz
but if I continue to do this for a month and it continues like this when you compare my graph before I did this then it will 100% prove cashouts on global have some effect on winnings.
No, it definitely won't. You are assuming that a lot of other variables are constant when they likely aren't (opponent quality, your own quality of play, and the possibility of coincidence). To be clear, I'm not arguing that there is no f**ery on Global Poker. I'm arguing that your data is mostly irrelevant and the experiment you are running is hugely flawed.

Last edited by HokieGreg; 03-07-2023 at 12:26 AM.
03-07-2023 , 12:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirbustalotz
Also heres my updated graph since the day I cashed out. 1600$ under EV during this stretch or 59 buyins.
How do you know how many buyins under EV you are running by looking at a Sharkscope graph?
03-07-2023 , 02:04 AM
Fwiw, I have a ton of empathy for how much of a mindf*** this stuff can be. Just think your methodology is bad here and you're trying to achieve a degree of certainty that is probably unattainable.
03-07-2023 , 02:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HokieGreg
This methodology would be an improvement, but would still be completely insufficient in proving anything.
I’m not trying to provide hard data. I’m just showing him by writing down his own suck outs will show that luck and variance works both ways. I don’t need to provide anything I already know the answer to lol
03-07-2023 , 04:33 PM
Again heres my graph from January until the cashout

https://www.sharkscope.com/#Player-S...7599;Class:SNG

Heres since then

https://www.sharkscope.com/#Player-S...7199;Class:SNG
03-07-2023 , 08:33 PM
haha

that 94o/33 hand is pretty nuts

Last edited by HokieGreg; 03-07-2023 at 08:42 PM.

      
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