Quote:
Originally Posted by Jefe519
I'm busting my 2+2 cherry with my first post. Let me start by saying I've been enjoying Global for about 6 months now. It's the first online poker I've played since Black Friday. I'm a frequent flyer rec. player splitting time between cash, MTT's and SNG's and I'm a winning player across virtually every game I play.
There seems to be a disproportionate amount of Global players complaining about the crazy suck outs here and in the Global chat. I completely understand how illogical most of these complaints seem, but I too began to smell something fishy (pun intended). I blew the feeling off, especially since I've been winning, then I read the thread on the "sweepstakes" theory.
In short, my understanding of the theory is that since Global uses a Sweepstakes model, a winner of each hand is randomly chosen before the cards are dealt, in order to comply with regulations related to sweepstakes. Now this is an extremely simplified version of a complex theory, but should be sufficient for this post.
I thought I saw a pattern in these crazy suck outs. They almost always seemed to happen when 2 or more players were all in PRE FLOP.
I began to think, "what if I modified the sweepstakes theory", so play along.
1. A winner is chosen by random, before the cards are dealt
2. In order for chosen winner to actually win, not only do they have to be in the hand, but they have to be all-in, and get called, or call an all in bet, pre flop.
3. If the randomly chosen winner folds, or is not all in pre, then the hand is played out using the RNG.
I know there are more details to fill in, but this post is already too long.
Now for the final part. I began to compile a focused hand history, every time I was all in pre, or I had called an all-in pre. I have been able to track 2,822 such hands ( I know it's not a very big sample), but a relatively tough thing to do on Global playing MTT's and SNG's. Here's my results:
- I was ahead 1,806/2.822 (66%) ( I'm a bit of a NIT)
-I won 960/1806 of hands, when I was ahead pre flop (54%)
-I won 493/1016 of hands, when I was behind pre flop (48.5%)
- I was dominating (63% of better) 411 times
-I won 227/411 hands in which I was dominating pre flop (56%)
-I was dominated 196 times
-I won 86/196 hands in which I was dominated pre flop (45%)
I have a lot more break downs, but, for now, one last one:
-I had AA or KK all in pre flop 41 times
-I won 25/41 times (61%)
These numbers seem way too close, but I'm certainly not a math wiz. I hated statistics in college.
Let me stress, I understand the bad beat paradigm, where we remember the bad beats much more frequently and profoundly than we remember when we suck out.
One last thing, I have no gripe with Global. I enjoy playing on Global and the couple of times I needed customer service, they were very responsive and helpful. Even if the crazy sweepstakes or modified sweepstakes theory's are correct, it doesn't mean Global is doing anything wrong, and I'm winning anyway, so I'm not going anywhere.
So what do you guys think?
The winner is obviously not chosen preflop or prior to the deal or any other way. That is very simple to prove. Time out on the river if you have the nuts instead of calling any bet, did you get the pot? Of course not. You could disprove such an idea with any pot won via a bluff.
On every network, if every player goes all in preflop, the winner is 'predetermined' in that the cards are already shuffled and will fall in a pre-arranged order. Like every network, human interaction dramatically effects the outcome of the 'predetermined' winner. Another way of putting it is, there is no predetermined winner.
How is an RNG certified as random yet there is a predetermined winner? Unless people think that iTech Labs is in on it, call and ask them the questions, +61 (0)3 9561-9955
It is predetermined in that there is only 52! possible ways the cards can be shuffled and if the 1st, 7th, 14th, and 16th cards are Kings, player one has been 'predetermined' to be the winner. Except, player 1 loses their WiFi connection and is unable to call the min bet on the flop. Then the next 'predetermined' winner with 6s over Kings times out on the turn failing to call the bet, etcetera. That exact scenario is applicable be on every single network.