Quote:
Originally Posted by big bwalz
ya i get your red or black roulette point but if red hits 200 times in a row would it be reasonable to expect black to hit sometime soon i guess is the q. your math professor tech reply is correct but isnt gonna get people to keep paying rake or playing games, let alone supporting a site where this kiknda thing has been going on for a while and people have been asking, and this your best answer is math doesn't add up basically or owe anybody anything. thanks for your help i appreciate it Bobo, point taken
Well sure, I agree that if red hit 200 times in a row there would be a perception problem and telling people that the odds are still the same next time won't make them happy - but if red hit 200 times in a row, I think it would safe to say the problem isn't just perception, but is real.
But I get your point - I think it works equally well with red coming up 10 times in a row. People will be upset if it comes up red again, even though the odds are still close to 50% that it will.
Here's the thing - people who think it's rigged need to determine if it's the equivalent of 10 reds in a row, or 200. If it's 10 in a row, then there's not a lot the site can do about it, because that's going to, and is supposed to, happen once in a while. Riggies will be riggies, and you can't satisfy them all. If it's 200, there's a problem.
I wasn't trying to just be a mathematical nit or smart-ass, FWIW; it was a genuine answer to part of your question. The longer you play, the closer everything should be to expectation, but that doesn't mean it's "due" to happen at any given point in time. You could run precisely at expectation for the next 10 years, and if you were to look at your overall results including the -EV run you've had lately, each year you'd get closer to EV on average, without ever having had a matching +EV period.