Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
You continue to use this saying that every all-in is a coin flip. That is not at all any statement I have made. Yes a condition can exist where two players all in preflop would both have a equal opportunity to be randomly chosen as the winner, but that is independent of their hand holdings.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
But I have said all along, that poker hand holdings do not matter at all at the point in time where the randomly selected winner is chosen.
If both players have an equal chance of being the chosen winner then in your world it is a coin flip, regardless of the hands dealt. All of my tests are based on this silly belief.
How about this - can you think of a scenario (based on your beliefs) where two people at a table go all-in and one of them has a greater chance of being randomly chosen as the winner? If so then how would that work, because otherwise, it is a coin flip in your reality.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
Your test theory has already been proven to not work as you expected.
Not quite, but I understand your need to believe this, as that is required for you to avoid doing the simple tests.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...ebate-1669206/
People can read the thread you are incorrectly summarizing for themselves.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
Your current test theory model is only measuring results of a coin flip and would only be a measurement of results.
Correct, it would test the actual hands and provide actual data.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
It would not at all be a correlation between poker hand probability and results because you seem to think hand probability is constant.
Your belief is that any 2 hands all-in pre-flop are 50/50, because the cards themselves are not important when the site determines a winner. That is all that is needed to determine (relatively easily) if that is true, because you and a buddy can go all-in and simply record who had what hand (with "Player A" being the favorite, regardless of who it is.
By the end of the 200 hands you will have a nice little spreadsheet showing the equity percentage of "Player A" for the 200 hands (you guys can even open fold hands that are close in equity and stick with those 60/40 or greater for easier testing).
After that you simply use the binomial calculator, which tests theories exactly like yours.
http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
For a proper test to be conducted, you would need large amounts of hands to establish a multitude of parameters to test.
That depends on what you want to test. Take an extreme theory - AA gets dealt every hand. That would need less than a dozen hands to adequately test.
The "good" thing about your theory is that it is very easy to test, and it does not require a massive amount of hands. 5 samples of 200 hands would likely be quite a bit of overkill.
Of course if you were serious about testing this (which you are not) you could ask the stats guys in the stats forum how many hands would be needed based on how many std you want your results to fall within.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
This would need to be at a full ring table with access to all hole cards.
Why do you need it to be a full ring table? Does your theory not apply when a table is not full (for instance 2-4 players at a table)? The way I suggested testing it you will see the hole cards of both players at the table.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
This is data that is not available at this time because hole cards are not provided and HH are not downloadable.
Just stream the test live, and there will be a video documentation of the output. No saved HHs is meaningless for this test.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
Of course all of this is for naught
Yeah, because you will never test this easy to prove theory.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
because an independent company has already tested the data. We just need Global Poker to provide the results of the data.
You will never accept the data. Either the testing company will be in on it, or it will not test something weird/specific you invent, or you will say they turned off the rig switch for the test.
You have the power to test your theory and expose everything, if your LOLdumb beliefs were true. You do not need a massive hand sample. You do not need saved HHs. You do not need the site to do any testing. You can do it. The fact you will not shows your complete lack of faith in your beliefs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
Now if you want to do a HUs match and use your model to see who wins the hand and count how many times each player wins, that is what your model will do.
It tests your general theory. Does your theory that a winner is determined at random (regardless of the cards dealt) apply to heads up tables as well? If so then this test will cover it. If not then I would ask why would it only apply to some tables and not others.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
But you can not use your model to correlate hand probability to winning.
Yeah, you can. Easily. Again, you can post your beliefs in the stats forum and ask for a proper test of it. Easy stuff. You will of course never do that, because it is easy stuff.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
The sad part is, once again, you think your statistical model is right, but once again you just do not understand statistics. If you think you are going to play 200 hands and the hand probability is the same throughout every hand and on every hand, then obviously you believe 100 coin flips in a row is possible.
You do not need it to be the same stats on every hand. You can do the calculations after the 200 hands with an average of the equity for "Player A" or if you like you literally can do it using every individual statistic as well.
That is exactly the kind of test the calculator I linked you does.
Don't get me wrong, it is fun watching people like you cling to your beliefs, regardless of reality, but it is especially amusing when the underlying theory is so bad and easy to prove. Good job on that!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Derp!
Monteroy: Why try to convince him otherwise? Move on, let him and his claims be.
He is like a 9/11 truther - there is 0% chance one will ever convince him of anything. That is why whether the site releases any additional information is meaningless to his needs. If they release something, even if it is everything he asks for, he will simply move the goalposts to suit his beliefs and personal agenda.
The fun is watching them create their own realities, particularly when the underlying belief is the
Dumbest rig ever...
All the best.
Last edited by Monteroy; 06-21-2017 at 05:03 PM.