Gambler's fallacy

I love that there are legitimate issues w/Global Poker, but this board ignores that to foster the insecurities of conspiracy dorks. Suck-outs happens. A lot.

I saw 4 flushes back to back in a single game just the other day. It happens. I've played roulette and saw it hit red 14 times in a row. Dude went broke trying to bet on black. It happens. Maybe you're just not that good.

You are not using that term properly, but no shock there.

How about this - according to your non-gambler fallacy version of math - what would the odds of (on a fair coin flip) be for 10 heads in a row? How about 100?

Feel free to answer those relatively simple questions if you can.

All the best.

Each flip is 50/50

And if you flip a coin 100,000 times, you're going to be extremely close to 50/50 in the heads/tails distribution. Take a statistics class.

And in those 100,000 there will be runs of 100 heads or tails

Indeed - each coin flip is 50/50.

That of course was not an answer to the question, so let's try again.


What are the odds of 10 heads in a row? Hint, each coin flip is indeed 50/50, but the odds of 10 heads in a row for a future sequence of 10 flips is not 50/50. Gambler's Fallacy is not involved. Flipping houses is not involved. The singer 50 Cent is not involved.

This is a very, very basic stats question. Try again to see if you can answer it. The last time you did not answer the question.

All the best.

Nope, but if you want to prop bet this (there are simulators that can do this easily) let me know. I will even give you 3-1 on your money because I am that generous, and best part is you will find literally as much action as you can afford.

Don't let the odds of a sequence like that of about 1 in 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 concern you since after all you have both heads AND tails for it to happen That is twice the odds and since each coin flip is 50% - that means it is 100% in your world of math! Free money for the taking, all we have to do is arrange escrow for the wager, because one definite stat is there is 0% you will pay after you lose otherwise.

If you like, you can brush up on your math on this topic here

https://math.stackexchange.com/quest...ke-1-000-flips

where they discuss odds for longest "run of heads" in 1,000 flips. Perhaps you can post in the thread and tell them about Gambler's Fallacy. Hint, the answer (for 1,000 flips) is 9. The answer for 500 is about 8, so you know.


Here is another article on the topic as well

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com...imes-in-a-row/

with the conclusion of

"After crunching the numbers, I am convinced that no one in the world has ever flipped heads 76 or 90 times in a row on a fair coin, as Rosencrantz and Guildenstern did in the play. But that's the magic of theater, I suppose."


- good luck to you getting to 100 flips in a row, but that's the magic of riggies, I suppose...

I'll take this bet. Although, I'd feel bad stealing from someone as deficient as you...

LOL. Where is PTS1 to suggest you take a class on statistics?

Damn, how can you be this blind GOLDNSQUID. It is ok you were wrong, just admit that and lets move on from this thread man.

https://youtu.be/rwvIGNXY21Y

The unlikely event of flipping 100 heads or tails in a row is 1 in 2^100. I believe you used the word runs, plural, in relation to occurrence and that would be (1 in 2^100)^2.

If every person in the United States started to flipping a coin 100x a day, all 2^100 variants would not be covered in a decade. The chance that it could occur more than once in 100K flips is 1 in 200 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000

That is also hundreds of billions of times closer to 0% than it is to .1% chance of happening. To give you an idea of the size of that number, it takes about 158,738,600 human hairs laid side by side to be a mile wide. You would cover 34 miles of linear land area with the width of a human hair in the above number, not 100% on the exact linear width but close enough for argument. Now what are the odds of finding any one specific hair? Well, there is a chance I suppose...

Every coin flip is 50/50 and independent of any other coin flip, unless you are talking about how many times in a row it could happen. Then they are dependent upon the prior action. The odds of flipping 6/4 out of ten heads is not too far out there. That is a 20% advantage for heads, yes? In 100K coin flips, you allowed for variance of +/-500. What is the percentage if the breakdown is 50,250 heads and 49,750 tails? 50.25% heads and 49.75% tails, or roughly 50/50. Extend the model to 10 million flips and you can see the comedy in PT and his team of statisticians, (Ted E Bear and Mr Whiskers the cat), when he claimed that the frequency would not have any changes if a sample larger than 30 hands was taken.

The infinitesimal odds of the random binary flip occurring 0,0,0,....0 or 1,1,1,...1 for a hundred straight times is billions of times more likely than some software being capable of determining a winner prior to the deal that has an unknown amount of players between 1-9 acting in an n*5 ways prior to revealing a winner. How that is possible has been consistently avoided any discussion, due to its impossibility no doubt. The mere fact that the chosen winner could miss the hand due to a phone call completely destroys the concept, much like being timed out on the river when my full house lost to A/K sooted.

and he will counter all of that by showing another youtube video. Riggies wonder why what they say is always dismissed, and this thread is a textbook case why.

There are a few legit issues regarding this site. Perhaps they will be discussed without all the riggie nonsense at some point. To give credit, the riggies in this thread have demonstrated an inability in understanding basic math concepts at a level rarely seen, and they are arrogant about it. Amusing in a way, but no real point trying to explain basic math to those who cannot understand it after a few attempts, as even their reactions get boring.

/Thread

If you keep replying to him he will keep displaying his complete lack of understanding in even more boring ways. I don't think that even a dewds "many zeros" post will have an impact, he will dismiss it as made up fiction if his pattern holds true.

LMAO

Its funny I post all these things about global poker. I post directly from their ToS, I post quotes from the CEO saying they are not poker but close to poker, I post how i don't believe it is real poker but a sweepstakes similar to a class 2 slot machine complete with a link to a video of one and a description of what one is. I post questions directly to their support people and can not get a straight answer. They change the name of this thread to RNG discussion but failed to post that they had gotten certification way back in Feb. They post how they are not gambling. They post how they are just like PCH or McDonalds and I get name called and nobody really speaking directly to the issues.

But......I make statements with outrageously outlandish claims and ya'll fall over yourselves and write detailed essays with all kinds of math and links to show how wrong I am! Why don't ya'll put that kind of effort into getting clear answers from Global Poker? My guess is ya'll see it as a way to take this thread off the purpose of the discussion.

I really dont understand how a poker site can show up claiming legal poker and using paypal and nobody is questioning and demanding answers to simple questions.

Yall give me an answer to some of those questions and in the mean time i am gonna go play blackjack and just double my bet each time I lose. I will be rich next time we speak!

I put many hours into finding things out. As I said, I looked into it as an investment and could careless about trying to find tidbits of information to back up my hunches.

You aren't very interested in finding out any facts or you would have started with calling either their attorney or corporate office. Since they are looking to raise money, it is pretty easy to get in touch with someone even higher up than an online forum moderator. You opt for repetitive claims with no desire to put in the slightest effort to find the truth. I haven't once referred to name calling while discussing it and even managed to keep sarcasm to a minimum.

Pretty easy to write out details due to the fact that I found out accurate information. The fact that there are attorneys out there that have been able to conclude that everything is legit on Global and on their use of PayPal just enforces the idea that you have no interest in actual answers. The answers are very very easy to find with effort slightly higher than repetitive posts that offer no basis of logic. Your understanding or not has zero bearing on whether it is factual or not.

You are proving Montevoy's claim

and he will counter all of that by showing another youtube video. Riggies wonder why what they say is always dismissed, and this thread is a textbook case why.

There are a few legit issues regarding this site. Perhaps they will be discussed without all the riggie nonsense at some point. To give credit, the riggies in this thread have demonstrated an inability in understanding basic math concepts at a level rarely seen, and they are arrogant about it. Amusing in a way, but no real point trying to explain basic math to those who cannot understand it after a few attempts, as even their reactions get boring.

to be 100% correct. If Global ceases operations, closes up, or stops using PayPal, changes their business model, etc... in five, ten or twenty years, you can refer back to this thread and give a big 'I told ya so'.

So the idea that i would have to reach out to attorneys to verifiy or get information on a poker site doesn't strike you as a little odd?

Paypal won't be an option for long and their business model will most definitely need to be changed.

Five, Ten, twenty years? I'm certainly hoping silly sweepstakes sites aren't going to be the only option for "legal" online poker in the states for that long.

It is strange to me that for someone who is such a conspiracy theorist you haven't once considered that global poker is simply violating the sweepstakes law rules by making this game more like poker.

FWIW I do not share this view, but if you are going to take your views to the extreme level you have, you could at least consider the more likely conspiracy theories. All of your claims are just thoughts based on your interpretation of words on a page. You have no data to back up anything you are saying.

It strikes me as odd in the sense that there was no pre-conceived notion that it should be there to begin with. Somebody has dropped the ball, while it isn't upper level management, it does need to be corrected immediately.

I also find it odd, that if it is a genuine concern, why someone would not check to see if it was true or not. Personally, I don't care what it is called since I am profitable. As a potential investor, that is a much more concerning issue. I am content with what I have learned and that's that. I think their marketing scheme of offering $2 out to anyone on FB that signs up is great. It will trap some percentage into making a deposit and continuing. Their sweepstakes of guessing games that awards a bunch of $weepsCash is great, too. The winner wants to know what they can do with it. One option is to claim it and get the money sent back or behind door #2 is the ability to win more $weepsCash via playing poker. I would bet heavily, those are the players that are being friendly in chat when they say, "wow, nice hand" when the obvious flush or straight bested their ace high or low pair. Please, keep them coming.

Nothing seems like it is going to change your opinion and you don't want to find out firsthand.


I agree, for different reasons. RAWA has to pass for sweepstakes to be declared dead. There is no chance that happens since it would cancel all state lotteries from their online activity. There is nothing more precious to the asshats, those with post-graduate degrees in incompetence aka politicians, in the State Assemblies than tax dollars. The current administration, and Republican mantra, is to give States the power to make decisions. That is going to continue and more states will include it. They already have a committee looking into allowing straight out sports betting on a nationwide basis. Poker is going to be legal, much like the acceptance of marijuana. Politicos will not be able to resist the tax money.

PayPal cares about collecting fees. Their shareholder meetings do not discuss the moral compass of the business, just how to maximize profits while cutting overhead. PayPal would love to process payments for gambling, games of chance/skill, drugs, and prostitution. In the absence of legality, they'd transfer the money to buy body parts. I'm lost that you feel your hunch/belief somehow will be proven right over the efforts and due diligence of two separate legal teams.

Pretty damn funny and apropos pic right there.

Props to GOLDNSQUID for continuing to argue his theory, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

You didn't post any actual evidence of this did you? Lot of posts in this thread.

So, Goldensquid literally doesn't understand high-school freshman level math (it's taught in Algebra 2), but is being condescending towards people who do this sort of math as part of their everyday job, even invoking phrases he once saw on Wikipedia but has no idea what they mean.

Then when he realizes he made himself look foolish, he quickly changes the topic and is all like, "LOL why did you guys actually respond to my idiotic posts? You should have been spending that time investigating my flat-earth theory!"

Just once, can there be a rig theorist with at least a B- understanding of basic probability, or at least one who doesn't perceive himself to be a stats wizard when he actually knows less than a 16yo?

I just lost w/ a flopped boat to turned quads. Confirmed rigged.

Thank you lol