Personally, I think the 50/50 hypothesis is completely wrong. It doesn't make any sense. However, I do like the fact that he's at least attempted to break down hand histories in a way to expose the site for what it is. For everyone else giving this guy hell for his efforts, I'll ask: What have you done to prove your stance that the site isn't rigged in any way, shape or form? Until I see absolute proof to counter the "rigged" theory, I will continue to believe that the 3 set over sets, 2 straight over sets OTF, and 2 flopped quads over nut FH in PLO I saw (all in one day) isn't just variance.

It is nice to see that even though you believe his theory is completely wrong (after all, it does not fit your personal situation), that you can join hands with him in believing that it is at least rigged, even if both your rigs contradict each other.

As to how to help him prove his rig/stance I gave very easy step by step instructions how he could do that for his personal rig (and make money in the process if his rig is valid). He is selectively ignoring that for now. Hard to really know what to do about yours since you are doing a fairly standard bad beat/ cooler whine routine with no real documentation. All I can suggest is that you use the abilities to predict the future you claim to have for more personal profits, as that is a powerful super power to possess. Congratulations on it.

As to disproving all rigs, well that is tricky since as I have already pointed out - your rig and his rig cannot exist in the same reality at the same time, yet no doubt you both would still want them disproved in some way. After that we would have to tackle gutshot guy's rig and then the next one and the one after that.

We need a bigger team of actuaries.

All the best.

Have you played on Global Poker at all, or are you just an observer of this thread? Because anyone that has played on this site for more than a couple thousand hands (maybe less) can see the ridiculous patterns that arise. And I should've clarified my stance.... I dont feel I can "see the future" as you've stated, but in the hands where the patterns arise (it isn't 100% of hands, but they are overwhelmingly prevalent) it's relatively simple to predict the subsequent cards based on the cards I hold. For instance, I played a hand yesterday where I had Ah4h OTB and called a MP raiser in 100NL 6max. I called, all others folded (funniest part was we were discussing the site being rigged due to a laughable runout 2 hands prior). Flop AsJh2h. He bets pot, I flat (I'm raising here probably 80%+ on other sites, but due to ridiculous runouts, I elect to flat). Turn Th. He checks, I bet, he calls. After his call, I told myself it's going to be a 4th heart or the board will pair..... River Ts. He bets 1/2 pot, says in chat "lol, it's rigged. Just fold." Obviously I don't trust online poker players, so I flat.... He has JTo.

This is a microcosm of the way hands play out on this site CONSTANTLY. This isn't like any other site, as I wholeheartedly believe other sites are not set up like this. This site is absolutely set up and no one can convince me otherwise. You don't see these runouts on other reputable sites with the consistency you see here.

Over the years I have played at 100ish sites, maybe more. Quite a bit more if you include casinos. I have backed about 1,000 players over several years on about a dozen different sites.

What you are saying about this site has been said by riggies about every site, its pretty standard riggie stuff.


Yeah, this claim has been made over the years on pretty much every site. Very few riggies are actually willing to demonstrate their super powers, and those that have had them fall a bit short. Go figure. I am sure yours are real though!


That is a remarkable story. Continue to use those powers for your benefit.



People have had this opinion about other sites as well. Best part is at times you will have riggies with exactly opposite rig beliefs on certain sites.

This guy says Party Poker is rigged, but Pokerstars is fine

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/32...igged-1276965/

This guy says Pokerstars is rigged but Party Poker is fine

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=614


The part all of you have in common is

at times it is fun to try!

All the best.

You still didn't answer my question about whether or not you've played on Global Poker. I didn't ask how many hours you played on other sites, or how many people you backed, or how much your bankroll is, etc. That information is completely irrelevant to this topic. I, too, have played hundreds of thousands of hands on other sites (mainly FTP, but also PS, Merge, Carbon, and Bodog before it became Bovada). That has nothing to do with anything. I never experienced, in the hundreds of thousands of hands I played on those sites, what I've experienced here in under 10,000 hands. It's not normal.... But I'm not sure if you understand that, because you haven't answered whether or not you've even played on the site.

Edit: As a side note, let me clarify that I'm actually WINNING on this site. I'm not whining that I'm losing and saying "ZOMG I'm losing because it's rigged". I'm saying the site is setting up hands to generate action, and it's disingenuous and, in my opinion (not sure the legality of it) a form of fraud.

I think a lot of you are forgetting that these games are a lot more fishier than normal.

What may be perceived as 'set up / more action' could be that more people are getting involved in hands.

This is the first time that we have seen mass appeal to online poker in a long time and there are lots of fishy players at these tables.

A big reason for the crazy action is all the non poker players joining through their FB advertising. I have been in many hands where i was called down the board by someone with mid pair with flush or straight showing that I hit. The play is horrible. I have won more than a handful of pots that were well over 200 BBs. If you take that into account with ring games on any other network where regs are happy with a 5 BB per hour run, it comes across as ridiculous. There is no software really on Global, so that takes away razor thin margins, too. The majority of the players are just not poker players and seem to be lost as to where the fold button can be found.

If you are used to grinding ring games or high stakes MTTs, the play on Global can be comical. If you put a substantial amount of naive people on WPN, PS, etc... the action would explode on those sites, too. Two weeks ago I was playing .10/.20 NLHE. I bought in for $20. I saw multiple player all ins and won two pots for over $60 each. If you hit the flop big and bet aggressively, at least one player will join. I think it is the lack of poker skill of many players that makes the site so crazy. My ITM% for tournaments is outrageously high. If I posted that in another thread, not a single person would believe it. If it was a sweepstakes thing and winning was spread around, then my ITM and ROI rates should be much much lower.

I agree, this is what i have been saying. No one is saying "rigged" but i think the people who PLAY the site countless hours have a more valid point then these mathematical statistics being posted here.
The cards are dealt for action, each player hits flop with set, 2 pair, flush, straight, then the run out happens. Guy with the set is betting hard guy with the straight betting harder now the flush which would be me i just calls waiting to hit my straight flush and take all the players down but not before the board pairs and 2 full houses are now in play. At this point you think you'd wanto drop the hand but based on what you have seen you know there is a good chance of amashing the 1 outter then it happens straight flush.
Now this works both ways i have folded a floped nut flush and right after i fold player boats up, now are we lucky? Can see the future? No, fact is you play enough you start to see patterns. You dont need a harvard degree in statistics and mathematical procedure to understand this. I believe some of the posters here are too smart for there own good and something so simple is hard for them to see and understand.
There is no denying, infact more people seeing this pattern then not. The hands are set up for action, 52 cards in a deck and with all this technology something as simple as a computer processing hands and deal a flop that hits everyone more times then not and can continue till the river.
Based on the "sweepstakes" take none of this is rigged its high action designed to create maximum rake based on the game created a "form" of a poker game.
I know im too stupid and my points like the rest are uneducated and insane theories. But i play and have played all aspects of the site, so untill you have actually played the site what makes you qualified to a expert opinion. Maybe create a mathematical odds and hand sample thread.

Well, nobody is saying it is rigged except the two people saying it is rigged for action, the one player saying it is rigged for gunshots to hit too often, and the other player saying it is rigged so that every all-in is a 50/50 regardless of the cards.

I am sure more players will propose different, often times conflicting riggie theories (while not saying it is rigged) in the future.


Strange that you guys whine about the ability to see these patterns you can exploit for a lot of money. If you were playing live and only you had the ability to see the turn card before it was dealt would you be unhappy about it?

I doubt anyone would accuse you or other riggies of having such a degree, and indeed it would get in the way of you seeing patterns with your own eyes.


You will be relieved to know that nobody will accuse you of being too smart for your own good.



Except for the riggies that see different patterns, like the 50/50 guy.



You do have a very powerful belief system. Hopefully you can use it to make more money for yourself!

All the best.

The pattern varies from player to player so its not exact, its more of a observation of how the cards fall. Not a get rich scheme. If your hand is too good to be true on the flop and has lots of action you best bet is to probably fold cause those next two cards are more then then likely going to hit another player with runner runner for the win.

I know this question has come up but do you even play at globalpoker?

I play on Global Poker and I have been playing online poker for years. 100s of thousands of hands.

This same **** is said about every poker room ever. Do you realize how ridiculous you sound? You have 0 proof.

When I say 50/50 that is with 2 players in the game. It is a sweepstakes and the winner had to be drawn at random from all entries so more people the odds change accordingly. Myself and others have posted all kinds of information from laws, various investment statements, and other sources. We have laid out what I think is a logical scenerio of what is going on. This is a support forum for global poker with active global poker reps. These reps could very easily post about how the cards are dealt or clarify what they mean by sweepstakes yet outside of a message about RNG certification and rigged RNG gif they have posted nothing and call is trolls. The website claims they have been vetted by top lawyers and they are legal as well as a PayPal review but they have not shown these statements. My personal belief is that the reviews they talk about are in reference to chumba casino and not global poker. Again the global poker reps could clear this all up but they do not.

Nice that they vary it from player to player like that. What happens if two players are in a hand and their respective patterns would get in the way of a hand being dealt that would satisfy both patterns?


None of them are despite that they would be if any of these riggie beliefs were valid. That is certainly proof of something...

Then you go ahead and fold your AA on the A 9 4 rainbow flop safe in the knowledge that the opponents 78 would get the runner runner he needs to win. Indeed, that play would not fall in the get rich quick scheme.


Why would it matter? If I did and I saw no pattern or a different pattern that would not change your beliefs given that several players there swear by the conflicting patterns they personally believe in.


Then do the all-in every hand pre-flop massively +EV play on heads up tables to avoid any potential multi way pots. Easy money for you to take as long as your beliefs are correct, so will you be the first riggie to back your beliefs through your play?

All the best.

I like to make statements

Has anyone addressed split pots?

According to many in this thread, the sweepstakes winner is picked at some predetermined time before the last card is dealt. When the predetermined winner folds, the pot goes to the second predetermined winner and so on and so on.

What about when two players in the hand have the same hand and split the pot? How can anyone reconcile this with this theory. Is this sweepstakes scheme also randomly picking ties?

FWIW I think the theory is garbage. This site might be breaking laws and not survive, but to assume it is anything but normal poker is really reaching. I hope this is an elaborate troll job but sadly I think it is not.

You would just add that into the possible sweepstakes outcomes. Same as two people in McDonald's Monoply sweepstakes both winning free hashbrowns

Mr Squid - why won't you do the all-in every hand pre-flop approach for easy money as long as your belief of this 50/50 system (heads up) is valid? I showed the math behind it, and at the higher stakes it is basically a printing press, unless your beliefs are wrong in which case you will of course lose a ton.

You seem to have strong beliefs, why not back them up with some play and actually prove them as I have suggested (with a live stream). You can be a hero to riggies everywhere, and literally be the one behind the fate of this company that has spent millions, all the while making some extra money in the process! What is stopping you?

Also, if you have time can you explain how a hand that is drawing dead is still 50/50? The others pretend those questions do not exist, but that behavior only hurts your belief structure. Perhaps you can be the beacon of light and shed some needed wisdom on that topic for how that can happen. Thanks in advance.


All the best.

I'd take you up on this but I quit the site after I flopped a full house and one of the players who seems to always be up big at 10/20 called me down runner runner to make a higher full house with their garbage hand. 1.62% equity on the flop lol, who knows... I'll stick to regulated live poker.

Answer the question on why you can't just shove all in every hand and win all the money.

If the site is not rigged in favor of one player, then you can simply open shove every hand and at worst be neutral EV if every other player calls. You could even buy in short and do it at the lowest stakes to both prove your accusations and make some decent money with very little risk on your part.

You demand that the site prove it is real poker, and this is reasonable. You have not provided any statistical evidence however to show that your alternative theory is correct.

I think it's fairly obvious that no one has any statistically significant data to support their claims.

I imagine we'll have a better idea soon enough though.

This model lacks distinction to be considered an acceptable statistical model. Most notably, statistical variances is given no consideration in this model. Not to mention that in a six-handed game where you are in the blinds one-third of the time, you can only steal the blinds 6,667 times in 10,000 hands.

What your simple model does show, is that you are only winning the blinds. In this case, you bet $1 million to win $3,000 over 10,000 hands, which at 100 hands per hour, is 100 hours. The break even point in your example is a pre-flop fold percent of 62.5%. Anything higher, you make money, anything less and you lose money.

So lets look at something more realistic and I will try to incorporate as much of you scenario in to this as I can.

10 handed game, Full Table, Auto Top off for all players, all players at max buy in, 1,000 orbits for 10,000 hands, no player changes, $100NL, 100BB max buy in, $5 max rake on all-in hands.

Player A is all-in every hand. Player A begins in the BB. On every shove Player A makes while in the BB, SB, and on the button, he is called by Player B on his immediate right. On all other hands (when he is UTG to UTG+6) he shoves and get the entire table to fold. Therefore, 7 hands per orbit (70%) he picks up the SB and BB cleanly. The other 3 hands per orbit (30%) are with Payer B.

Variance:

During the first 5 orbits. Player A experiences negative variance in that he losses every BB and SB shove but wins his button shove. His short term variance of 33.33% has him winning only 5 of the first 15 hands of the all in hands with Player B.

On orbit 6, things change for Player A. He still losses his BB, but he starts to win his SB and continues to win on the button. This trend continues for the rest of the session. So for 995 orbits, Player A wins 1,990 hands (66.67%). Combined with the 5 hands he won in the first 5 orbits, he wins 1,995 (66.5%) of the possible 3,000 hands played all-in versus Player B.

Conclusion:

So short term and long term variance does exist in poker all-in coin flips, and this variance can have a dramatic affect on the results achieved by this strategy. This example is just one of thousands demonstrating have variance can have significant impacts on results. So I hope all of of you who think that shoving every hand is +EV, is not at all a EV situation. I, for one, do not want to lose this type of money over 100 hours of play.

It is grossly illogical to suggest that the software is capable of determining a winner prior to the flop with no assurance that player will even be in the hand, let alone to showdown. How someone could have a 50/50 chance of winning a pot after someone else has the nuts on the turn defies common sense. If there was a single shred of legitimacy to this assumption, someone would have complained that a winner was not in the hand at showdown.

The McDonald's monopoly game is a completely different comparison. You buy a soda and get a ticket, as an example. There is no interaction of decision by the consumer after that. They provide a single Broadway ticket in the entire system. Nine people sit at the table, please explain how the software is able to detect who is going to be in the hand and to what extent? If you cannot do that, then there is no need to try to disprove a ridiculous assumption.

What is the need for a statistical variance? A pre-selected winner must be above any variance, otherwise the software cannot decide on the winner. Since the system has decided that the player in the 5th seat is the winner. When the player in the 2nd seat goes all-in, the 5th seat is compelled to call with their J/4 offsuit. Since virtually every single player would fold J/4 off, then that can only mean that those hands would never call and the seat would not win. If the decided winner, seat 5, had A/A and lost connectivity, how does the software compensate for awarding the pot to the disconnected player it has decided would win? If you click the 'spin' button on one of the slots in Chumba and get disconnected prior to it stop spinning, the player gets the credit or debit. If you flop a royal flush and time out, you are not winning the pot.

"
The McDonald's monopoly game is a completely different comparison. You buy a soda and get a ticket, as an example"

This is exactly how a legal sweepstakes works. Global claims they are a sweepstakes where you buy gold coins to get "free" sweepstakes entries.

I understand what you are getting at now and how you come to that conclusion. You are taking a general public definition as what their meaning of a sweepstakes is. That is not how they define it for purpose of their company.

If you go all the way to the end of the prospectus, there is a glossary. Look at how they define Sweepstakes, Social Sweepstakes Poker, and $weepsCash. I know it sounds ridiculous that there is a different definition, but that is the legal document is presented to the regulators. It spells out what the meaning of specific words are to remove any outside understanding or confusion. The only attachment to the use of the term 'sweepstakes' is Chumba Casino. It says it throughout the prospectus and in defining the word. Chumba and Global are not interchangeable nor the same entity.

Sweepstakes in advertising, in law, and in practice mean specific things though. The terms of service are all legalized for sweepstakes in NY with the 5,000 limit without filing for a permit. The terms say a lot of things that they don't follow though. If it was just as simple as calling it a sweepstakes and instead of US dollars calling it dollar-roos and doing the "wink" "wink" "nudge" "nudge" while selling something else of no value and getting that many dollar-roos then we would all be playing poker stars still. We would have poker rooms all the country.