Quote:
Originally Posted by a dewd
To suggest that the odds of winning are evenly divided by the participants is nonsense. One player has K/K and two other players have 3/3 each. The flop is a rainbow board of 5/9/J. Any substantial bet by the KK player should have the other two players folding. What if the KK misclicks somehow and folds
Better is that according to his theory if KK bets and 33 calls an all-in and the other 33 hand folds, the remaining 33 is still somehow a 50/50 to win!
For what its worth, other sites have had people believe 0% hands can win, so it is not just the sweepstakes riggies...
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...ostcount=67913
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
Monteroy; you are not qualified to make analysis. I already showed the limited data you are speaking of. Picking up blinds to take an accumulated stack all-in over the course of a viable statistical session is not a viable option when you are risking money on 50/50 situations.
Of course it is, and it is amusing that you cannot see why.
The 50/50 flip is by definition a 0 EV event (less the rake which is more than offset with the blinds picked up when not called). The goal is not to have a single all-in flip, but hundreds or thousands so that the expected results will be very close to expected.
http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
You can use this to calculate the odds of x or more "heads" happening in y flips.
For this purpose lets pick a sample size of 500. The odds of 275 or more "heads" is about 1.4% so that would represent a loss of about 2500BBs (before adding in all the blinds won when not called).
Simply use a bankroll that can afford that risk. A $500 bankroll would be plenty to test this at 10Nl for instance.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
100BB coin flips is not a viable way to make money. So assuming you do not know statistics, I would advise you against wagers where you are risking 100BB to get 1.5BB.
Apparently you do not know statistics, because the 100BB wager is not to "win 1.5BB." The wager itself has no cost because you are literally 50/50 to win while betting 50% of the pot (ignoring the small dead money blinds / rake).
The all-ins do not matter, other than having a proper bankroll, because there is literally no cost to the flips long term if every hand is 50/50 in your world.
Let me try an even simpler experiment for you. Let's say I offer you this proposal:
1) We bet $5 on a fair coin toss a thousand times
2) As a side bonus you make 2 cents every other time we flip a coin
Would you accept that offer ( I know I would) or do you still look at that as "betting $5 to win 2 cents?"
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
While you could profit small amounts by the participants refusing to play, you are risking 100BB to win 100bb if they do decide to play
But in your world this is a coin flip regardless of the hands so there is no equity cost at all to the wager! Long term you will win really close to 50% of the flips in 50/50 land.
That is the problem with your LOLbad theory. You keep thinking the 100BB shove is a "gamble" when by the very definition of your theory - it is not long term.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
you are never better than a coin flip to win.
In your theory you are never better or never worse, you are always 50%, which is what makes the shove every hand approach so easy and profitable (if your LOLbad theory was valid).
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
Long term the averages will work out where you win 50% of the hands in play, but the variances within the hands short term would be such that huge variances could be shown by a particular individual.
and I re-introduce you to bankroll management!
Remember, I ran a team of casino bonus whores. This is what we did day in and day out to weak systems. Did a person wager $500 a hand with a $5000 bankroll when doing a blackjack bonus? Of course not!
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
So your assertions that your experiment is a guarantee way of winning is in fact not that at all.
It is a guarantee
only if your really, REALLY stupid riggie theory was accurate. In the real world it is of course going to cost a player a ton of money, which is why you will never do it. You know your theory is LOLbad.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
You are only 50% to win.
Long term buddy. Its all about the long term. The coin flips cost $0 long term. You make 1.5BB every time nobody calls. It is a printing press for money as long as your dumb theory is correct and nobody else figures out how to exploit this dumb theory.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
You are coin flipping every hand.
Only when called, and it does not matter when you are called as the 50/50s even out long term. Meanwhile you slowly collect the blinds when not called.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
That may be difficult for you to understand since you do not have the knowledge to know how statistics work.
We can agree that 50% of the people in this back and forth chat have no idea what they are talking about
.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PTS1
Lets stick to the topic at hand.
This is the topic. Your theory is so simple to test and exploit for profit that it is amusing you continue to stand behind it. Sort of sad actually. Sad!
Dumbest rig ever...
All the best.
Last edited by Monteroy; 05-30-2017 at 06:18 PM.
Reason: Dumbest rig ever...