Quote:
Originally Posted by jriiikk
It could be that people calling shoves with a 7% chance for their tournament life in situations that are impossibly bad and hitting about half the time only happens to me. I realize that anything is possible.
Folks who post stuff like this generally do not understand probability. What is more likely is this happens in 50% of the tournaments you enter and you remember it because that is how you went busto, but you forget the other 93% of the time you won.
Let's say you are all in with 93% equaiaty 4 times in a tournament, you have a greater than 50/50 chance of losing at least once.(it's too early for me to crunch exact numbers but that figure is correct)
If you do not believe me, look at the birthday problem, excluding leap day birthdays, the odds of someone having your birthday is 1/365, yet if you poll 23 people there is a 50% chance someone will have the same birthday as you. If you poll 30 people there is 70% chance of someone having the same birthday, if you poll 57 people there is a 99% chance someone has the same birthday as you.
Someone with a rudimentary understanding of probability will tell you that you need to poll 182 people to have a 50/50 chance of having the same birthday as you. This concept applies to poker and the probability of a bad beat over a sample size, especially in a single tournament where you are likely all in for all or most of your chips many times throughout the course of the tournament.
Last edited by Jr0d; 08-30-2021 at 05:48 AM.
Reason: Add missi g word