Quote:
Originally Posted by Dilly_
Certainly not a statistics major, but if you think a few hundred or a few thousand hands prove something definitively I don't know what to tell you. Good poker players making +EV plays go on downswings for tens of thousands of hands on a regular basis, does that mean the sites are rigged? Definitely not.
Comparing blackjack to poker is comparing apples to oranges. If two people played heads-up, wagered $1 on each hand, and all hands were dealt to the river, you would find the results converging on 50/50 (with a few chops) within a reasonable number of hands. And this would be a fair comparison to blackjack.
But poker isn't played that way. Of 10,000 hands, probably 90% of them end in a personal result of between 0 and 3 BB won or lost. Most of the rest might be between 3 and 20. The big hands that result in wins or losses of 100 or more BB come around very infrequently. So if you only get a small percentage of those, and the cards go against you, you could easily have a big downswing - and contrary to all the riggie theorists, it wouldn't mean anything except "that's poker".
If you are betting the same amount every hand in blackjack, you are not likely to experience any wild swing if the deck is dealt fairly. You don't need anywhere near the sample you are talking about when it comes to poker.