Quote:
Originally Posted by Dilly_
The bolded is something I hear low stakes players say a lot to justify skipping spots, usually with the addition of "I'll just wait for better spots." This only works if your opponents are really bad so you have a very high win rate. Against competent players where your win rate will be more reasonable, skipping +EV spots that are high variance is a sure fire way to give back what little win rate you have. Gluten free is certainly right, micro on Global is a game where you probably get away with it, but still.
He doesn't have no fold equity that's a wild assumption. Even looking at B open, BB 3-bet, B 4-bet shove, BB doesn't call with their entire 3-bet range. Presumably BB is raising a wider range over the limps then he is 3-betting so B has more fold equity in this situation. And BB should be calling it off with their best pairs, AK, and a decent amount of other suited hands. 44 is in fact flipping or behind everything in that range but still has 40%+ equity v that range, which is fine.
Again, Gluten free is right this is Global micro so assumptions on Villain's ranges can be hard to nail down, but "my opponents are bad so the fundamentally sound strategy doesn't apply at all," is a slippery slope to playing how you feel comfortable and justifying it after the fact. The other thing is the idea that a fundamentally sound strategy (GTO) doesn't work against bad players in the micros is complete nonsense. You can make more by getting out of line an maximally exploiting opponents' mistakes, but even a simple GTO bot would print in the Global micros.
I don't think this is a +EV line, but I'd be open to looking through it. You're right that he does not literally have 0 fold equity, but he doesn't have much with two players behind and each only need to put in 20 more bb after putting in 5. I don't think people should avoid high variance +EV lines, but I don't think this is one of those cases.
I never said that GTO strategy is bad, in fact, I think it is quite solid. But, it is definitely not necessary to play NL20. I never said GTO doesn't work.
I haven't broken down the combos, but 44 is crushing 22, 33, 2x, 3x, 4x here of which there are not many combos. Overpairs account for 60 combos and over-cards some other amount (I didn't do the math). All of these are flips except for the 60 overpairs that have him crushed.
Is it potentially +EV? Maybe, but I don't think this is nearly as obvious as you are making it out to be. We'd actually have to count combos, assign villian some ranges here and try to figure it out. Maybe you could prove in the lab that this is a decent play.
I would just wonder why not raise/fold pre (also top off to play 100bb poker). What gets me is the weird overlimp then 3bet jam. It's NL20 not a 25k high roller. Villain was spewing here so I saw no reason to take a line with single digit EV expectancy (if even that which I'm not sure about).
I appreciate the analysis though! It is interesting and I'm not trying to argue, since I think you make good points, I'm just trying to add more to the convo (added since tone can be hard to get over the internet).