I agree that one hand is not a large enough sample size. That's why I was curious if other people have noticed the same weirdness I have.
At any rate, MTGO is certainly more fair than Magic Arena, which is notorious for forcing better players to be on the draw and rigging starting hands. Some people have told me that they, too, have noticed that their opponents immediately draw the same card that is discarded by Thoughtseize, but whether or not the client does this intentionally is unclear.
In my experience, Yorion decks seem to disproportionately topdeck out of unwinnable situations, which should be less likely because their deck size is above average. I also think that programming house bots to play Discover Combo or Mono Red would be trivial, but I don't think Wizards is actually doing that.
For the record, my current ELO rating is 1767. I took some bad beats when I was around 1820, notably from being too paranoid and trying not to play into sweepers, being too afraid to tap out against combo decks, stuff like that. If I loosened up a bit, I would probably stabilize around 1800.
These are all of my match results playing my current deck (win/loss): 4/1, 1/4, 2/3, 1/4, 3/2, 2/3, 2/3, 3/2, 4/1, 3/2, 5/0, 4/1, 3/2, 2/3, 2/3, 2/3, 3/2, 2/3, 4/1, 2/3, 4/1, 2/3, 2/3, 3/2, 0/4, 3/2, 3/2, 4/1, 8/2 Premier, 2/3, 2/3, 2/3, 2/3, 2/3, 2/3, 0/4 Drop, 3/2, 3/2, 3/2, 1/4, 2/3, 2/3, 5/0, 4/1, 3/2, 1/4, 3/2, 2/3, 2/3, 1/4, 1/4, 4/1, 3/2, 3/2, 2/3, 4/1, 2/3, 4/1, 2/3, 3/2, 2/3, 5/0
For what it's worth, I am in another league with 3 wins right now and 2 matches to go.
If anything else strange happens, I'll let you guys know.