winrate/risk of ruin calcs - Gambling and Probability

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winrate/risk of ruin calcs

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09-26-2022 , 09:43 AM

validand notinuse

adept

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 833

Hi,
Does anyone know of any resources - google sheets, purchaseable excel files etc - that enable the mathematically semi-literate to perform similar calculations to those available on Pokerdope, but with the variables tweaked? Pokerdope restricts you to your bankroll reqs given a known win rate / std dev, I'm also interested in how to calculate
-probability breakdown of a range of "true" winrates, given a known winrate over a previous sample of hands where no of hands played and st dev are both known (ie there is an x% chance your WR is between y and z bb/100)
-risk of ruin with a given bankroll if st dev and WR are both known

Thanks.

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09-26-2022 , 04:47 PM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

Here is one method that is usually a good approximation

RoR = e^(-2*B*WR / SD^2)

B = bankroll

WR = win rate

SD = standard deviation

IF you specify a risk if ruin (RoR), here is the bankroll you need

Bankroll (bb or $) = -ln(ROR)*SD^2/(2*WR)

A blog post of mine on Tumbler discusses this more fully.

https://holdemmathology.tumblr.com/post/185543981715/bankroll-and-risk-of-ruin

Last edited by statmanhal; 09-26-2022 at 04:53 PM.

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09-27-2022 , 08:58 PM

heehaww

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,081

See also the formula provided by adelarosa in the primedope page's comments: https://www.primedope.com/poker-vari...comment-135228
As well as BruceZ's first comment there: https://www.primedope.com/poker-vari...#comment-86167

Bruce gave a great explanation of another formula too: https://web.archive.org/web/20200814...5&o=14&fpart=2

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