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 03-24-2019, 07:10 AM #1 LivePD stranger   Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 5 What are the odds? So what are the odds of being dealt QQ, KK, AA 9 handed???
 03-24-2019, 10:21 AM #2 LivePD stranger   Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 5 Re: Unofficial Chico Network (BetOnline, Tiger, etc.) Discussion Thread I like this guy's math better!!! It's been a while since I jacked around with the math, but here goes. 1st Ace 4/52 = .0769 2nd Ace 3/51 = .0588 1st King 4/50 = .0800 2nd King 3/49 = .0612 1st Queen 4/48 = .0833 2nd Queen 3/47 = .0638 Multiply the odds of each one of theses events to derive the odds of the combined event = .000000118 = 1/8,482,716.6666 This would be the odds of calling this shot beforehand for any three players, but at a full table of 9, and this is where I may need some help, I believe the odds of this event occuring are at least 3 times greater or 1/2,827,572.2222. Still a big number. But how unusual is it? To put it in perspective it is about 39 times less likely than being witness to a Royal Flush. I play about 2000 hands per month including tournaments or about 24000 hand per year, lets just call it 28,275. I should see this event occur about once every 100 years.
 03-24-2019, 06:11 PM #3 heehaww Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Tacooos!!!! Posts: 4,565 Re: What are the odds? C(9,3) * C(4,2)^3 / C(52,6) / 5!! - C(9,4) * 3*C(4,2)^2 * 3!! / C(52,8) / 7!! + C(9,4) * 3*C(4,2) * (3!!)^2 / C(52,10) / 9!! - C(9,3) * (3!!)^3 / C(52,12) / 11!! ≈ 1 in 16978 ETA: The 3-handed probability you quoted is wrong because the person didn't take into account the 3! possibilities of which players get which pairs. So multiply by 6 and it's 1 in 1413786. Though I would have done it like this: C(4,2)^3 / C(52,6) / (5*3) Last edited by heehaww; 03-24-2019 at 06:18 PM.
03-24-2019, 09:50 PM   #4
Didace
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 14,603
Re: Unofficial Chico Network (BetOnline, Tiger, etc.) Discussion Thread

Quote:
 Originally Posted by LivePD I should see this event occur about once every 100 years.
But someone will see it every day.

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