Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Probability Discussions of probability theory

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-24-2019, 07:10 AM   #1
LivePD
stranger
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 5
What are the odds?

So what are the odds of being dealt QQ, KK, AA 9 handed???
LivePD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2019, 10:21 AM   #2
LivePD
stranger
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 5
Re: Unofficial Chico Network (BetOnline, Tiger, etc.) Discussion Thread

I like this guy's math better!!!

It's been a while since I jacked around with the math, but here goes.
1st Ace 4/52 = .0769
2nd Ace 3/51 = .0588
1st King 4/50 = .0800
2nd King 3/49 = .0612
1st Queen 4/48 = .0833
2nd Queen 3/47 = .0638
Multiply the odds of each one of theses events to derive the odds of the combined event = .000000118 = 1/8,482,716.6666
This would be the odds of calling this shot beforehand for any three players, but at a full table of 9, and this is where I may need some help, I believe the odds of this event occuring are at least 3 times greater or 1/2,827,572.2222. Still a big number. But how unusual is it? To put it in perspective it is about 39 times less likely than being witness to a Royal Flush. I play about 2000 hands per month including tournaments or about 24000 hand per year, lets just call it 28,275. I should see this event occur about once every 100 years.
LivePD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2019, 06:11 PM   #3
heehaww
Pooh-Bah
 
heehaww's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Tacooos!!!!
Posts: 4,568
Re: What are the odds?

C(9,3) * C(4,2)^3 / C(52,6) / 5!! -
C(9,4) * 3*C(4,2)^2 * 3!! / C(52,8) / 7!! +
C(9,4) * 3*C(4,2) * (3!!)^2 / C(52,10) / 9!! -
C(9,3) * (3!!)^3 / C(52,12) / 11!!

≈ 1 in 16978


ETA: The 3-handed probability you quoted is wrong because the person didn't take into account the 3! possibilities of which players get which pairs. So multiply by 6 and it's 1 in 1413786.

Though I would have done it like this: C(4,2)^3 / C(52,6) / (5*3)

Last edited by heehaww; 03-24-2019 at 06:18 PM.
heehaww is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2019, 09:50 PM   #4
Didace
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Didace's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 14,620
Re: Unofficial Chico Network (BetOnline, Tiger, etc.) Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by LivePD View Post
I should see this event occur about once every 100 years.
But someone will see it every day.
Didace is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:52 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online