WHAT is going on? set unblockers arent changing much - Gambling and Probability

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WHAT is going on? set unblockers arent changing much

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11-17-2021 , 01:14 PM

LordPallidan12

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Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 2,140

in plo5, according to odds oracle

odds to hit set ~`10%
i add 10 dead cards to sim----> odds to hit set 13% ?!?!?!?!?!?

how does cutting out 20% of the deck only make me go up 3% ?
i guess its a ... 15% increase ?

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11-17-2021 , 06:10 PM

statmanhal

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Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

3/10 = 30%

Blockers and unblockers certainly have an effect on hitting your hand but in absolute terms it's small in many cases but in relative terms it can be large.

For example, if you have 2 outs on the river in hold'em against one opponent, the chance you hit is 2/46. If villain holds one of the outs, the absolute decrease in win probability is 1/46 = 2.2% but the relative decrease is 50%.

In hold'em, the chance you set on the flop is 11.5%. Cut out 10 cards and the chance goes up to 14.2%. The 2.7% absolute difference (rel. delta=23%), while small, may still be important, and also may be a lot smaller than many would have thought.

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11-17-2021 , 08:24 PM

LordPallidan12

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Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 2,140

indeed. so my discovery isnt flawed? just surprising to me, i guess. and yeah its i guess its absolute terms v relative.

ty for response , were you able to look at my other post regarding 80% straightening board / boat draw?

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11-17-2021 , 10:06 PM

statmanhal

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Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

I remember looking at it and said to myself that would take me too much time to solve, if I could even solve it all. I would guess that heehaww and some others could do it

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11-18-2021 , 01:00 AM

LordPallidan12

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Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 2,140

Quote:

Originally Posted by statmanhal

I remember looking at it and said to myself that would take me too much time to solve, if I could even solve it all. I would guess that heehaww and some others could do it

theres not a button on calc for "either or" functions? : /
like EITHER the 20% miss OR the 30% boat?? or is it more to it than that lol

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11-18-2021 , 12:43 PM

statmanhal

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Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

Not sure what you are asking but here's my answer to a question I hope that you asked:

Given two independent events A and B, then

Prob (A or B) = Prob(A) + Prob(B) - Prob(A and B)

Prob(A and B) = 0 if the two events cannot occur together (we say they are Mutually Exclusive.)

You probably (hmm) know this, but just in case.

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11-18-2021 , 01:44 PM

LordPallidan12

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Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 2,140

i mean its something ive done before, but probably wouldn't have remembered without you mentioning it : )

so the odds of a straight not coming in (20%) OR hitting a boat (30%)

is (0.2+ 0.3) - ( 0.2 * 0.3) =44% ?

and that accounts for the times that the straight comes in and i boat

this is correct?

thanks for taking me under your wing and teaching me stuff in a safe and appropriate manner

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11-18-2021 , 04:07 PM

statmanhal

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Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

No, not exactly because the events are not independent. For example, you can hit a straight but in doing so you might have reduced the chance of boating. As an example, if there are two players, the chance one player gets dealt a pair actually increases the chance the other player has one.

Situations like this but much more complex and subtle make some card probability problems hard. Those, I try to avoid

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11-19-2021 , 11:09 AM

LordPallidan12

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Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 2,140

Quote:

Originally Posted by statmanhal

sure, i understand. but within a few %, this is an adequate estimate, not a total miscalculatuon, right

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