I think this is the best place for this thread?

I just deposited $1k on Ignition through bitcoin for a 100% deposit bonus. Much to my dismay the bonus can only be unlocked through casino games.

For reference:
Unlock Rates
Bonus Rules

Essentially, I must bet 25X my deposit, but not all games give 100% towards bonus. So if I bet $1 on video poker, it counts as $0.30 towards my bonus.

I'd like to know if this bonus is even profitable, and if so, which games would be the best to unlock. I would guess if video poker is played properly, even at 30%, I could eke out a profit, but I am no odds expert.

Yes, the bonus is profitable. It's not a great opportunity, though.

Even at 30% contribution blackjack/JoB is best. Other table games HE's are more than double.

JoB has a slightly lower HE than their BJ, but the optimal strategy is harder than BJ's. Also I think BJ can be played faster and has lower variance, so this is my personal preference. Also, doubles and splits count towards rollover contribution in BJ last time I checked, so that helps slightly.

To find out your edge on a bonus like this you have to figure out how much action you must give and multiply that by the HE of the game and compare it to the bonus amount. Here the HE on Bovada Multi-hand BJ with perfect play is .54%. You must give 25*2000/.3 = $166,666.67 in action. 166,666.67*-.0054 = -$900. Your bonus is $1000, so you make $100 in EV from this bonus if you just grind the rollover.

There is a better way! By playing a high variance style which increases your chance of busting, and decreases your chance of having to complete the rollover, your EV can approach the full value of the bonus. For example if you take your $2000 and double it or bust, then complete the rollover, half the time you lose your $1000 investment and half the time you win $3000 then pay $900 in EV to the HE. Now your EV from the bonus is $550. Quadruple your $2000 or bust and now your EV is $775, etc. You just have to be okay with losing $1000 75% of the time for only $775 in EV.

.5*(-1000)+.5*(3000-900)= $550.

I'm not a math guy. Do you know if there are any sites on the 'net that could help actually determine the "Break even" point on a bonus rollover?

I.e. all games have house edge with a few exceptions (live blackjack and card counting where they don't reshuffle after you increase your bet; certain progressive jackpot games once jackpot has grown to a certain size; etc. etc.). The bonus helps make up for that, but not if the rollover is too long.

I.e. is 100x playthrough too much? What about 300x playthrough? The Ignition 25x playthrough for BlackJack is actually 83.3333x playthrough (Blackjack only goes 30% towards playthrough and excludes single deck). I have seen casinos with lower playthrough requirements.

Here's a real life example from Ignition. If you deposit $200 using their 200% welcome bitcoin deposit bonus, you will see a balance of $600 in your casino. If you were only to play blackjack, you would need to play 83.333x playthrough on the whole $600 balance. $600 * 83.3333 = $49,999.

So in other words you would have to wager $50,000 in order to clear the bonus. Also read the fine print, in the case of the 200% bitcoin bonus, your whole amount is locked up and if you forfeit the bonus you will effectively lose everything. (All wagers won using bonus money go into the locked up bonus amount, and if you are winning, the algorithm they use basically ends up working out that "your" money is never used for a wager).

So the real question is based on a $1-$500 game of randomly shuffled on-line single-hand blackjack, with a starting balance of $600, and if you play perfect strategy, could you wager $50,000 and have $200 or more remaining once you've completed wagering the $50,000?

If I am looking at my paper napkin calculations correctly, both scenarios are indeed profitable (both the $1k at 100% and the $200 at 200%), but you would be financially better off getting a job at fast food restaurant. Unless you have blackjack bots clearing this bonus for you. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong here. The 200% match beats fast food by a just a hair. The 100% match I can't see being any better than a fast food job.

You would need to play perfect strategy for hours on end without getting frustrated and making a mistake, and even then there's still a 5-15% chance that you lose your whole deposit due to variance. (Unless you are clearing bonuses all the time then you take that into account and you're still ahead in the long run).

The breakeven point could be found, but it's not really interesting. It changes for a 100% bonus vs. a 200% bonus vs. a 35% bonus, etc.

Yes, your expected final balance is over $200. 50,000*-.0054 = -$270. You'll end up with a $330 balance on average. Actually more because you bust and stop playing sometimes.

It depends on your bet size. You can pick a bet size to get a desired win-rate which makes this not a waste of time for you. Also playing perfect basic strategy is pretty easy with some practice.

Thanks Browni

Thanks a bunch. I think it sounds like a high risk low reward proposition and I'll just stick to poker. My pockets arent so deep that I could afford to keep depositing if I got off to a bad start. Playing low bets would minimize the bust risk, but be a waste of time.

If you know you won't want to take full advantage in the future, you can just deposit a small amount and place a split bet on Roulette or something like that. You will probably lose, but if you win the EV is much higher than just grinding out the rollover. Throw $100 down or whatever you are comfortable with knowing you will probably lose, but will get a good payout when you win (you still have to grind the rollover when you win, though)

Note that this only works if you your account is currently empty.

Bovada has a much better bonus right now. It is 150% up to $1500 with 25x rollover on bitcoin deposits, and you can use it three times. Blackjack contributes to meeting rollover at a 60% rate rather than Ignition's 30%. Also, on Bovada you get about .1% back from playing blackjack through their "casino benefits," so the true HE on their blackjack is only .44% with perfect BS.

You need to place 25*2500/.6*3 = $312,500 in wagers to complete the rollover. The bonuses give you $4500. Therefore at a HE of .44% with perfect BS your EV is about 4500-312500*.0044 = $3125. Much, much better than Ignition's bonus.

Choose whatever bet size you want, but I like $10/hand for pretty low variance. If you can play 1000 hands/h that's about a $100/h win-rate. I don't play that fast because I take frequent breaks, but even if you play half as fast $50/h is spectacular for something that takes little effort, IMO. Betting $10/h the standard deviation for the entire bonus is sqrt(31250)*1.14*10 = $2015. Breaking even would be a -1.55 SD result, so you are 94% likely to make money on this bonus at this bet size.

I just did the Bovada bonus and ran like god right away, up $2000 in 1/3 of the way through the first bonus betting $10/hand, then ran like crap until I was only up $800 somewhere in the middle of the third bonus, but somehow managed to pull out a win of $2560 for right about at EV including the $312 from the casino benefits.

Also, it seems Ignition has a 200% up to $2000 bonus on bitcoin deposits right now, which should actually yield a decent EV.
2000-3000*25/.3*.0054 = $650.

Still not nearly as good as Bovada's, but maybe worth considering. I don't think I'll take advantage of it, though. It's not a good enough win-rate for me considering the variance I'd need to accept, personally. Maybe I'll try to bink a number on roulette or something for a much smaller amount, though.