hi,

I have been running into incredible amount of times into AA when I have KK orr I have QQ and there is a KK or AA out there as well.

All this at 6max NL cash game.

What is the % chance that when I am dealt KK there will be an AA dealt to in 6 max?

Last 33 times I was dealt KK I paid out pocket AA 6 times. I just cannot believe it. 1/5th or 1/6th of the time I have KK I run into AA seems crazy given the amounts of combinations can be dealt to 5 other players.

Is the chance calculation simply 4/50*3/49 for KK vs AA? Would that be 4 times per 1000 times on average?
(starting from the points I have KK already and what is the probability of someone having AA dealt in 6max game.)

This is a question that gets asked a lot around here.

Here is a link to a thread that asked the same question. Note that the last post in the thread has a link to the exact probs as posted on the Wizard of Odds website.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...preflop-53353/

Of course, feel free to ask any further questions on this very interesting topic.

here's a "back of the envelope" imprecise answer,

a specific pocket pair = 0.45% to be dealt to a player.

99.55% not being dealt that pair

not being dealt = 99.55% to the 5th power = 97.8%

so being dealt = 2.2%

this is imprecise, but it does take into account (generally) that some of those players not being dealt AA will be dealt a single Ace or and some will be dealt no Ace. the numbers generally take account of that i think (if someone gets dealt a single ace then chances of AA go down but much more than 50% no one gets dealt one ace)... edit: forget this comment on the math. but the idea is correct.

as a complete aside,

the odds of someone else having AA when you have KK is much much higher in omaha. but don't think players adjust enough. gotta play the KK for hitting a set and/or side cards. even AA in omaha wouldn't be worthwhile if you couldn't play it for a set or its side cards (like holding quad AA)