This is my first (and probably last) time playing WCOOP. I played 2 tournaments today, with very similar results:

PokerStars - 200/400 Ante 50 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 19.86 BB
BB: 14.85 BB
Hero (UTG): 28.12 BB
UTG+1: 45.02 BB
MP: 49.42 BB
MP+1: 32.51 BB
MP+2: 19.05 BB
CO: 11.91 BB
BTN: 49.09 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has T J

Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 6 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 4 BB

Flop: (14.62 BB, 2 players) 9 Q K
Hero checks, BTN bets 4.83 BB, Hero raises to 22 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 17.17 BB

Turn: (58.62 BB, 2 players) Q

River: (58.62 BB, 2 players) K

Hero shows T J (Straight, King High)
(Pre 19%, Flop 65%, Turn 0%)
BTN shows K K (Four of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 81%, Flop 35%, Turn 100%)
BTN wins 58.62 BB


PokerStars - 1000/2000 Ante 250 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 24.87 BB (VPIP: 10.67, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 2.70, Hands: 75)
UTG+1: 58.86 BB (VPIP: 39.13, PFR: 23.91, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 47)
MP: 26.92 BB (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 10.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 69)
MP+1: 27.32 BB (VPIP: 23.91, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 46)
MP+2: 111.92 BB (VPIP: 24.07, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 13.11, Hands: 108)
CO: 121.04 BB (VPIP: 37.96, PFR: 13.89, 3Bet Preflop: 1.72, Hands: 108)
Hero (BTN): 16.54 BB
SB: 29.55 BB (VPIP: 24.30, PFR: 7.48, 3Bet Preflop: 1.82, Hands: 108)
BB: 44.81 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 18)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, SB raises to 29.42 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 13.91 BB and is all-in

Flop: (34.95 BB, 2 players) 5 J 4

Turn: (34.95 BB, 2 players) 4

River: (34.95 BB, 2 players) T

SB shows 4 4 (Four of a Kind, Fours)
(Pre 19%, Flop 87%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows Q Q (Two Pair, Queens and Fours)
(Pre 81%, Flop 13%, Turn 0%)
SB wins 34.95 BB

cool bro

The maths should be quite interesting, if anyone cares to have a go.

It's about 122/1 to hit quads by the river when holding a pocket pair. So I guess the chances of the same person running into 2 sets of quads on the same day is about 15,000/1?

At least you had fun

Aren't these great reasons TO play?

The day you run pure, is the day you run deep.

Maybe you should consider better decisions preflop : JTs folds to 3-bet, QQ jams preflop.

Fascinating. You think the QQ was played poorly from the button? You don’t want 44 shoving against your QQ in these spots in a MTT?

JT was a bit loose but “luckily” I flopped the nuts. You got any issues with all the chips going in with the nuts on the flop?

Anyhow, I’m more interested in the odds of being eliminated by 2 sets of quads on the same day. There used to be some good discussions about the number of hands you’d expect to play, on average, to see these events.

It's a strategy forum. It's kind of irrelevant how RNG played it out. Also, you can calculate literally anything that has happened and you would get quite low odds. You see something that stands out and you latch onto that fact but I'm sure you have experienced even more unlikely events in your life than this.

When i post a bad beat they troll me. Thats poker.Of course in a WCOOP event where you can win much all counts. On the other hand to mess around with J-10 is not great .

Feelings of injustice are particularly enraging and detrimental to well-being.

Which is why you should be at peace with the fact that KK held, and that you got what you deserved flatting JTs oop with 28bb and awful implied odds. Justice served.

The snarky comments aren't helpful, though fully expected.

Of course long shots happen in real life but they're rare and surprising when they do happen, that's why they're long shots in the first place. Hopefully someone will come along and explain how much of a long shot this is, or not. The consensus so far seems to be that it's run of the mill and I played the hands badly, as if that somehow made quads inevitable in both cases.

In b4 thread is locked

This is a strategy forum, if you want to post bad beats please do so in the correct forums.

If its low stakes you played hand one bad and believe it or not queens will lose sometimes. As Pcallinallin pointed out you want fish to jam 30bb with 44 when you hold QQ, if you can't handle bad beats you proly shouldn't be playing in the first place.

Believe it or not, I’ve probably been playing poker before you were born. Doesn’t mean I’m any good but I’ve seen plenty of strange things happen at the table, both live and online. So save the condescension for someone else.

Ive not once mentioned bad beats. I asked the question of how often we should expect to be eliminated from two tournaments in the same day by quads. I’m hoping someone with the maths chops will answer.

For your info, if getting all the chips in as 80% favourite or 65% favourite is bad poker, then I’m ok with playing that badly.

Well done Clouseau. You were able to click on a user and find previous posts.

That post is an example of asking a math question and getting a bunch of people throwing accusations. There was a time when people were happy to try and break down such questions in a mathematical manner.

It's a simple question, how often would you expect to be eliminated from two consecutive tournaments to quads? You can use live or online in the answer, it doesn't matter. From that thread, it's still an open question, as you can see. Feel free to have a go and let us know how you get on.

"It's a simple question, how often would you expect to be eliminated from two consecutive tournaments to quads?"

Is there a simple answer to this question, other than, "It depends"?

Cliffs: no.

It can only happen if you finish <1st, so start with the chance of that: (n-1)/n where n is the # of players.

Next, given that you'll be eliminated, we only need to focus on your final hand of the tournament.

We need P(lose to quads | lose hand), but since the chance of beating quads is ~0, that's basically the same as
P(villain makes quads), which is a weighted average:

P(HU vs pocket pair)*P(V quads | pp) + P(HU vs non-pair)*P(V quads | np) +
P(3way vs pp+pp)*P(quads | 2pp) + P(3way vs pp+np)*P(quads | pp+np) + P(3way vs np+np)*P(quads | 2np) +
...
I suppose it's rare for your final hand to be against 3+ non-folding players, so you can probably stop there for an accurate estimate. As for the chance of your matchup being HU as opposed to 3way, I don't know, that's the hardest variable to determine and I'm not a donkament player. What are the stacks typically like when you're eliminated? Antes or no? (In other words, what might the ranges look like?) How many players per table?

That formula assumes you'll be all-in preflop; I'm not sure how much the estimate would change from factoring in the possibility of being eliminated in a hand containing postflop action. I'm not even sure which direction the change would be in.

Continuing, we'd take all that and multiply by (n-1)/n. If one cares enough to do all that work, that's the chance of it happening in any given tourney; call it p. The chance of it happening in back-to-back tourneys is p², but not if you play more than 2 tourneys in your lifetime. The chance of a streak of at least 2 happening within a sample of N tourneys is approximately:

(N-1)p² - (N-2)p³

That should be accurate since p will be small. If N is large enough to hurt its accuracy, you can use the following:

That's in Julia. The formula originates from a recursive one.

I may post more later but high-level thoughts for now ...

This was WCOOP and the hand histories are provided. One was fairly early in the tourney and Hero went all-in on the flop starting the hand with 28 BB. The other was deeper into the tournament and Hero went (called) all-in pre-flop with 16 BB.

So in the first knockout it can be expected that Hero will on go all-in with a very strong hand (or extremely strong draw). In fact Hero flopped a straight. Of course, Villain will only call with an extremely strong hand (in fact Villain flopped top set).

In the second knockout Hero called a shove from Small Blind with 29 BB (effective 16 BB). Again, SB is likely to have a pocket-pair or strong unpaired hand to go all-in in that situation.

I guess I am trying to make two separate but related points:

(1) The situations are "weighted" towards Villain making quads in the hand.

(2) Even if Hero wins those hands, similar situations could/would arise later in the tournament and Hero could well get knocked out by Villain's quads later (a type of repeated play game). Of course, if Hero wins the early all-ins and doubles-up, he is less likely to get knocked out later since he would then be less likely to have the shorter stack in the subsequent confrontation(s).