I know this has probably been done to death but I've searched online and cam up with wildly varying ideas and figures. Basically a background, I mainly play 18man 6max tournaments with a few 6/9/45 9 mans thrown in now and then. I've played over 400 tournaments and just wondered how accurate my ROI would be at that point? I've heard people say that after this amount you should be able to tell if you are a winning or losing player but your ROI could vary wildly but how true is this? Does anyone have any figures to back this up?

Also how many SnGs would I be looking at before my current ROI starts to come in line with my true ROI?

Obviously I understand overtime improvements in overall startegy/gameplay also come into account but just looking for a probability that I am running near to my real ROI at 400 games & and which point they will become as good as the same?

Thanks

If you post your finish distribution (i.e. how many times you have finished in each position) for each tournament type, it would be a lot easier to help...I think.

I have an Excel program that will give you confidence limits on total winnings for 9-man sit'n'gos if you know your ROI and, as Sherman suggested, your relative placing 1st, 2nd, 3rd. If you want to post that data along with number of tournaments they are based on, I will calculate the confidence limits.

I have worked out the 95% confidence interval (95%CI) for 9 seat, (50,30,20) STTs and you do need a lot of games to have a narrow range. Note, this 95% CI also means that 1 in 20 times your confidence will be misplaced and the roi is outside this range. Also that your "True ROI" is likely to vary as you play more games as (i) you get better, (ii) the opposition changes.

I have not done this for larger fields but they will need even more games to be accurate.


9 seat STTs (50,30,20), -5% ROI, FinishDist(10.0, 12.5, 14.6) Variance = 2.31, Stdev = 1.52
500 games, 95%CI = -5 +/- 13.3%
1000 games 95%CI = -5 +/- 9.4%
2000 games 95%CI = -5 +/- 6.65%
5000 games 95%CI = -5 +/- 4.2%
10000 games 95%CI = -5 +/- 2.95%

9 seat STTs (50,30,20), 0% ROI, FinishDist(11.1, 12.84, 14.1) Variance = 2.43, Stdev = 1.55
500 games, 95%CI = 0 +/- 13.7%
1000 games 95%CI = 0 +/- 9.7%
2000 games 95%CI = 0 +/- 6.8%
5000 games 95%CI = 0 +/- 4.3%
10000 games 95%CI = 0 +/- 3.1%

9 seat STTs (50,30,20), 5% ROI, FinishDist(12.3, 12.9, 13.8) Variance = 2.55, Stdev = 1.60
500 games, 95%CI = 5 +/- 14.0%
1000 games, 95%CI = 5 +/- 9.9%
2000 games, 95%CI = 5 +/- 7.0%
5000 games, 95%CI = 5 +/- 4.4%
10000 games, 95%CI = 5 +/- 3.1%

9 seat STTs (50,30,20), 10% ROI, FinishDist(12.9, 13.4, 14.3)Variance = 2.61, Stdev = 1.62
500 games, 95%CI = 10 +/- 14.2%
1000 games, 95%CI = 10 +/- 10.0%
2000 games, 95%CI = 10 +/- 7.1%
5000 games, 95%CI = 10 +/- 4.5%
10000 games, 95%CI = 10 +/-3.2%

Is there any way of finding my my full placing froms first SnG to current? It's not something I've recorded personally? Maybe Pokerstars will be able to provide it?

Thanks guys.

You can request the tournament histories from them. I don't know how much more work they will do for you than that. I always surprised when I find a relatively serious poker player (i.e. one who is concerned about his ROI and sample size) who doesn't use tracking software or at least record his own results in a spreadsheet.