Hello! not a poker related question but I guess one that has to do with probability.

Assuming we were studying historical stock data and assuming we would have an entry point for when we buy the stock. Based on historical data, how would we determine our "profit-range"?

I've made a small graphic that illustrates the question:




The blue line is the point where we would sell at a loss, because we wouldnt know how much lower it could go, so sometimes we would be losing (the blue line would always be the same in relation to the entry and be set as soon as we enter the trade).Now for the times that we wouldn't fall below the blue line, the stock price would obviously go up. Now my question would be: If we were looking at hundreds of these situation, could we form some kind of average for when we should exit the trade?

Like should we count all situations where the price didnt fall below the blue line, meassure its highest point and then add all together and take the average height and in the future, try to sell in that zone or is there a mistake in my thinking?

People use all types of things for targets, ATR, Standard deviation , some people always shoot for X amount of ticks etc etc . What you have shown , for me, isn't enough info. Was your entry based off a 144 tick chart or a daily. Obviously the daily will have loftier profit targets. Where is prior resistance. I would throw a 1std 2std and 3std deviation bands on to see how far the move is away from these points as a start