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Tournament EV curve after 60k games Tournament EV curve after 60k games

03-09-2018 , 08:33 AM
Hi,

Here is my winning vs allin-EV curve from my last 60k tournaments.
As we can see, my allin equity final value (~5k BB) is twice as much as my net final winnings (~2.5k BB).



Given that the sample is quite large, i think statistical results are relevant.

I would like to (quantitatively) estimate the probability that :
all-in EV >= 2x net winnings

Can someone help me in doing that? How can I proceed?

By the way, does this graph looks standard to you or does it raise some suspicion from your rationality? (For me it does a bit...)
The software used is exclusively pokerstars.

Thank you in advance for your answers

Last edited by 0bj0bj0bj; 03-09-2018 at 08:35 AM. Reason: forgot image
Tournament EV curve after 60k games Quote
03-19-2018 , 08:49 PM
You hit a cooler streak around 15k hands in that created a gap. You closed that gap by running well around the 44k hand mark. Then you hit another cooler streak at 45k and 50k hands respectively. So really the 2x difference is running over 10k hands. You'll likely have good runs again at some point to bring the two graphs together again.

Is it a statistically significant difference? Yeah. Is it a significant finding? No. Some people have better luck than others. Take a look at this article for more.

http://www.pokertracker.com/blog/201...-all-in-equity
Tournament EV curve after 60k games Quote
03-20-2018 , 09:13 AM
60k Tournaments is a lot, how many hands are these?
Tournament EV curve after 60k games Quote

      
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