Please move this if this isn't the proper forum.

I am playing with spreadsheets on all-in expectation with various pot sizes, stack depths, and outs. I find working this out myself to be a great way to improve my game theory knowledge beyond simply reading.

One variable is fold equity. I have been using 20% as a default. Certainly this will vary with pot size and stack, but is this a reasonable default for a general calculation? I think it is overly conservative, especially on the extreme end where we push AI with something like a 1.5 PSB. I'm not interested in the reasons you would push at any given moment. Just looking for some guidance on reasonable FE estimates.

Does it even make sense to estimate an average FE or is it more reasonable to add a GTO calculation to the spreadsheet to calculate Minimal Defense Frequency and assume villain plays optimal? If so, am I making the correct calculation using:

MDF = Pot/ (Bet+ Pot)?

So, if the Pot = 50 BB and the all-in bet is 75, then

MDF = 50 / (75 + 50) = 0.4 = 40%.

That would mean a GTO FE would be 60%. This actually seems more realistic for a 1.5 PSB shove.

On the other end, a 50 BB shove into a 100 BB pot:

MDF = 100 / (50 + 100) = 2/3 = 0.67 = 67%

Which would mean GTO FE would be 33%.


Of course, real life won't fit GTO, but it does seem to indicate my 20% default FE is much too low.