06-20-2022 , 10:36 AM
Simply for my own sanity I want to learn how to calculate street by street EV. I have a couple of examples I just need to understand how.

Hand #1
Live 1-3 Blinds 72 game is not on
KQo on BUT we see a 4 way flop for \$12
pot = 60 (blinds - rake)
Q85 rainbow
PFR bets 20 I call hu to turn 100 in pot
7 turn
PFR bets 50 I call
River 7
PFR bets 65 I call get shown 72o

Ignoring fold equity and preflop equity and some other things...

After putting in \$20 on flop with 2.22% equity villain would need to make \$800 for this to be a break even play.

After the turn bet villain needs to make another \$240 for this to be break even.

But my EV in this hand cant be +\$965 (800+240-65)

But calculating money put * equity per street cant be right either making villains play a \$1 winning play.

97.78% * 20 = +19.56
88.64% * 50 = +44.32
65*0 = -65
Grand Total -\$1.13

Another question I have is that for the formula [( 1 / EQ ) * C] – ( P + C ) this is calculated by street Equity but flop equity assumes 2 more streets but if you are also calling a turn bet you really only paid for 1 street. It would seem more mathematically accurate to account for this on hands that turn bets are made.

06-22-2022 , 08:25 AM
EV, which for us refers to expected net profit, is the sum of (net profit amount)*(probability of that amount)

On the river, your EV of calling is -65

On earlier streets, it depends on what plays will be made on future streets given each possible runout. On the flop, if you calculate the EV under the assumption that both players will play the next street perfectly, then Villain's \$20 is a pure donation (-20 in EV) because they'll be forced to fold on any turn. But if Villain is going to contribute another bet in the event of making a pair (pot odds be damned), and if Hero is going to pay Villain off if the runner-runner hits, then the overall EV on the flop depends on the size of those future bets. If we assume exactly what happened, then Villain's EV of getting called on the flop was about -25 (accounting for the pot).

Also, idk what you plugged in but for me Equilab says Villain's all-in equity on the flop is 4.75%
06-22-2022 , 09:19 AM
Equilab: Ah yup. In my spread sheets calculator I gave villain 1 out on the flop as an adjustment to having only backdoor equity and there being more bets going in.

Villain's EV of getting called on the flop was about -25: How can this be true? Villain only bet 20. How can the EV be less than the amount to be lost?

Is there a solver that does this for us?
06-22-2022 , 10:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KERBEROS
Villain only bet 20. How can the EV be less than the amount to be lost?Villain only bet 20. How can the EV be less than the amount to be lost?
Because getting called means Villain will sometimes make a -EV bet on the turn. EV considers future streets.

39/45 of the time, Villain will miss the turn and only lose \$20.
6/45 of the time, Villain will hit the turn, bet \$50, only hit the river 5/44 of the time and only get paid another \$65.

Quote:
Is there a solver that does this for us?
Node-locking is a thing, but idk if you can lock different actions for different runouts. Maybe the obsolete CREV can do this?

m