Quote:
Originally Posted by statmanhal
I don't know if you are hypothesizing or actually reporting on what happened.
The answer is 7.5 standard deviations, an occurrence probability of virtually 0.
If you think this actually happened, either the data is wrong or you are misinterpreting it.
Or the RNG is not random.
Quote:
Originally Posted by whosnext
Just a follow-up to the above:
If everything is random, we can calculate the exact probability of this occurring.
Prob of flopping a set when holding a pocket pair is 144/1225 (= 11.755102%).
Number of flopped sets follows a binomial distribution whose formula is well-known.
Prob of observing exactly 5 flopped sets out of 500 opportunities:
= C(500,5)*[(144/1225)^5]*[(1-(144/1225))^(500-5)]
= 7.5 * 10^-21
which is pretty darned small.
I think the more relevant probability is for <= 5 sets, but the number would not be meaningfully bigger.
