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Probability Discussions of probability theory

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Old 09-27-2017, 08:50 PM   #1
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 67
staking in soft markets without knowing your edge

What staking method would one use if they don't know their edge. Edge as in assigning a probability to each of the opponents. I cant assign a probability to each opponent because its basically impossible to get even close to being correct, so I cant use kelly for this reason. I'm just picking who I think will win and backing them if the price seems overs. So I'm just wondering what would be the next best staking method to use?

Just to explain why I or anyone IMO cant produce correct lines is that its nothing for the one you want to bet to open odds on and ease out to double or more its opening price, or even 4 or 5 times its opening price.

Its also nothing for something to be heavily backed throughout betting and then double its price or more 2 minutes before the start of the event, because of new info for the event or even no info but just players moving lines so easily.

These are just a couple of many many variables that make setting lines difficult.

There are many pros, and yes they really are pros I will give them that because they do make a profit overall, claiming to be able to produce correct prices but their only playing with themselves -- even though they truly believe they can for some crazy reason (ego), yet all these pros I know and I'm talking best in the business aren't even using 1/2 kelly but instead everyone of the them are using 1/4 kelly or betting to win a set amount of their bank, which to me basically shows how much confidence they really have in their lines, but given how soft the markets are they can get away with it.

I'm betting 2% of my total bank per bet atm, but just wondered if there was maybe a better staking option to use?
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