Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >


Probability Discussions of probability theory

Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-16-2017, 05:13 PM   #1
buggzilla's Avatar
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Aisle Seat; 30,000 ft.
Posts: 162
SPR and Pot Commitment Question

Conventional wisdom says that if the flop SPR is less than some nominal value, you should stack-off more lightly than when you’re deeper stacked. Depending on the source of the advice (e.g., Miller, Splitsuit) the stack-off threshold SPR values can vary widely, but range somewhere between 3 and 6.

Why this range of numbers? Or, more importantly, where does this kind of SPR stack-off threshold recommendation come from?

I don’t have a full answer, but I did recently take the time to plot Expected Value (EV) as a function of SPR vs. Pot Equity:

Note the “knee” in the curve at/around an SPR of 3 to 3.5. I think this explains why some experts cite 3 as the value below which you should be pot committed with single-pair type hands.

It also implies that you should pretty much always be pot committed on flops where you have pot equity of 50% or greater.

I think. Maybe. Hell, I don’t know.

I would love some commentary and feedback on this plot and SPR theory from the real math experts here...


Last edited by buggzilla; 05-16-2017 at 05:19 PM. Reason: poor quality image
buggzilla is offline   Reply With Quote


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:16 PM.

Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online